Census 2016- Understanding Change in the Western Region

The Summary Results (Part 1) of the 2016 Census of Population were released last week (6th April), with information on population, and corrections to the preliminary results, as well as a number of other statistics giving an overall picture of Irish society.  The infographic below, produced by the CSO, provides a picture of the data available.

A CSO report with maps and charts on key statistics is available here  and a presentation on highlights of the data release is available here .

This post discusses some of the information available for the Western Region based on  data provided at county level.  As more detailed Profiles become available we will be able to present more information at Region, County and ED levels.

What is the population of the Western Region and how has it changed since 2011?

Since the release of the Preliminary Results which was discussed here  the population in most Western Region counties has been amended (in most cases it has been increased slightly, although Galway City population has been reduced)[1].  A notable change is that Sligo had, in the preliminary results, a marginal population decrease between 2011 and 2016 but in this corrected data it has actually shown a slight population increase.

The Western Region population was 828,697 people in April 2016.  The population of the region increased by 7,817 people since 2011 (0.95%). In contrast, between 2006 and 2011 there was an increase of 57,516 persons or 7.5% in the population of the Western Region.

The state population in April 2016 was 4,761,865. It increased by 173,613 persons (3.8%) between 2011 and 2016   (Table 1).

Two counties in Ireland, both in the Western Region (Donegal (-1.5%); Mayo (-0.1%)) experienced population decline over the period.  The highest population growth in the Western Region was in Galway City (4.2%) while Galway County also grew (2.4%).  Clare had the next highest population growth (1.4%) while both Leitrim (0.8%) and Roscommon (0.7%) had very small population growth.

Table 1: Population in 2011 and 2016 of western counties, Western Region and rest of state[2]

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2006 to 2016 by Sex, County and City, Census Year and Statistic   

 

Differences in Male and Female Populations

In all counties (and in the Western Region and the State) there was higher growth in the female population than the male population (See Table 2).  In the Western Region there was a 1.6% increase in the female population and 0.3% in the male population.  For the rest of the state the difference was not so pronounced (males 3.6%; females 4%).  Donegal was the only county to experience a decline in its female population.

Table 2:  Percentage Change in County Population 2011-2016 Male and Female

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2006 to 2016 by Sex, County and City, Census Year and Statistic   

 

This difference in the patterns of male and female population growth relates in large part to different patterns of migration and more detailed information will be available on this in Profile 2 (Population Distribution and Movement, release due 11 May) and Profile 7 (Migration and Diversity, release due 21 September).  However, Table 3 below shows the differences in the male and female population in each county (using the standard measure of males per 100 females).  As would be expected, because women live longer, in the oldest age category (75+) there are significantly fewer males than females.  What is more unexpected is that the 30-44 age category has fewer men than women (unlike the age categories above and below it).  This indicates significant male migration in this age category.  Again, as more detail becomes available the different patterns can be better understood.  Galway City consistently has more females than males across the age categories.

Table 3: County breakdown of men per 100 women by age group, 2016

Source: CSO Summary results Census 2016 Part 1, Figure 3.8

 

In this Census 2016 Summary Report the population is not available at ED level.  It is expected that this will be contained in the forthcoming release for Profile 2- Population Distribution and Movements on 11th May.  Similarly, while the Summary Report discusses urban and rural population the detail is not provided at county level.

Population Age and Dependency

Some information is provided about age and the map below shows the difference in average age across Ireland.  The average age in the state is 37.4 but the average age is higher in more rural counties of the West and North West and in Kerry and Tipperary.  In fact Kerry and Mayo have the highest average age (both 40.2) followed closely by Leitrim (39.8), Roscommon (39.7) and Sligo (39.2) while the youngest is in Fingal at 34.3 years.

Source:  CSO Summary results Census 2016 Part 1, Map 3.1

 

It is useful to examine the dependency ratios in the Western Region.  Dependents are defined for statistical purposes as people outside the normal working age of 15-64.  Dependency ratios are used to give a useful indication of the age structure of a population with young (0-14) and old (65+) shown as a percentage of the population of working age (i.e. 15-64).

Nationally, the total dependency ratio was 52.7% while that in the Western Region was, as would be expected, higher at 57.4%.  Leitrim had the highest dependency ratio of any county at 62.6 per cent, closely followed by counties Mayo (61.0%), Roscommon (60.8%) and Donegal (60.5%).  The lowest dependency ratios were in Galway city at 39.0 per cent, followed by Cork city (42.8%), Fingal (50.7%) and Kildare (51.4%).

Looking into the make up of this greater dependency the old age and young dependency ratios are shown in Figure 1.  Galway County has the highest young dependency in the region (36.1%) while Galway City has the lowest in the region (23.4%).  Most counties in the Western Region (except Sligo) have higher young dependencies than the State as a whole (32.3%) in part because of the loss of working age population through migration.  Similarly most Western Region counties also have higher old age dependencies than the state (20.4%) with Galway City once again the exception (15.6%).  The highest old age dependency is in Mayo (28.3%)

Figure 1: Old Age and Young dependency Ratios in the Western Region and State, 2016

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004

 

Conclusion

Over the coming months to December 2017 data from Census 2016 will be released under various headings.  This important information gives us the opportunity to better understand our region and its characteristics.  It is essential for policy and decision making, as well as to our understanding the differences among regions in relation to a variety of issues such as economic output, social transfers and the demand for different goods and services.  We look forward to analysing the future releases and to providing a better understanding of the Western Region throughout 2017.

 

Helen McHenry

 

[1] The Preliminary Results are based on the summary sheet for the Census form while this release is based on the information in the complete Census form.

[2] Rest of state refers to all the counties in the state except for the seven counties of the Western Region.