Posts
Key Issues for the National Planning Framework – Submission from the WDC
The WDC made its submission on Ireland 2040 – Our Plan: National Planning Framework yesterday. The Issues and Choices paper covered a wide range of topics from national planning challenges to sustainability, health, infrastructure and the role of cities and towns. A key element of the paper considered the future in a “business as usual” scenario in which even greater growth takes place in the Dublin and Mid East region with consequent increased congestion and increasing costs for businesses and society, while other parts of the country continue to have under-utilised potential which is lost to Ireland. The consultation paper therefore sought to explore the broad questions of alternative opportunities and ways to move away from the “business as usual” scenario.
The WDC submission considers these issues from the perspective of the Western Region, the needs of the Region, the opportunities its development presents for Ireland’s economy and society as a whole and the choices, investments and policy required to achieve regional growth and resilience.
This post highlights the key points made in the submission. The complete, comprehensive submission on the National Planning Framework by the WDC can be read here (4.5MB PDF). A shorter summary is available here (0.7MB PDF).
What should the NPF achieve?
- The National Planning Framework (NPF) provides Ireland with an opportunity to more fully realise the potential of all of its regions to contribute to national growth and productivity. All areas of Ireland, the Capital and second tier cities, large, medium and small-sized towns, villages and open countryside, have roles to play both in the national economy and, most importantly, as locations for people to live.
- While spatial planning strives for ideal settlement or employment patterns and transport infrastructure, in many aspects of life change is relatively slow; demographics may alter gradually over decades and generations and, given the housing boom in the early part of this century, many of our existing housing units will be in use in the very long term. If the NPF is to be effective it must focus on what is needed, given current and historical patterns and the necessity for a more balanced pattern of development.
- To effectively support national growth it is important that there is not excessive urban concentration “Either over or under [urban] concentration … is very costly in terms of economic efficiency and national growth rates” (Vernon Henderson, 2000[1]). Thus it is essential that, through the NPF, other cities and other regions become the focus of investment and development.
Developing Cities
- As the NPF is to be a high level Framework, in this submission the WDC does not go into detail by naming places or commenting on specific development projects, as these will be covered by the forthcoming Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (RSES). The exception to this, however, is in relation to the need for cities to counterbalance Dublin. In this case we emphasise the role of Galway and the potential for Sligo to be developed as the key growth centre for the North West.
- The North West is a large rural region and Sligo is the best located large urban centre to support development throughout much of the North West region. With effective linkages to other urban centres throughout the region and improved connectivity, along with support from regional and national stakeholders, Sligo can become a more effective regional driver, supporting a greater share of population, economic and employment growth in Sligo itself and the wider North West region.
Developing Towns
- While the NPF is to be a high level document and the focus is largely on cities it is important not to assume that development of key cities will constitute regional development. All areas need to be the focus of definite policy, and the NPF should make this clear.
- While cities may drive regional development, other towns, at a smaller scale, can be equally important to their region. Recognising this is not the same as accepting that all towns need the same level of connection and services. It is more important to understand that the context of each town differs, in terms of distance and connectivity to other towns and to the cities, the size of the hinterland it serves and its physical area as well as population. Therefore their infrastructure and service needs differ.
- Towns play a central role in Ireland’s settlement hierarchy. While much of the emphasis in the NPF Issues and Choices paper is on cities and their role, for a large proportion of Ireland’s population small and medium-sized towns act as their key service centre for education, retail, recreation, primary health and social activities. Even within the hinterlands of the large cities, people access many of their daily services in smaller centres. The NPF needs to be clear on the role it sees for towns in effective regional development.
Rural Areas
- Rural areas provide key resources essential to our economy and society. They are the location of our natural resources and also most of our environmental, biodiversity and landscape assets. They are places of residence and employment, as well as places of amenity, recreation and refuge.
- They are already supporting national economic growth, climate action objectives and local communities, albeit at a smaller scale than towns and cities. But a greater focus on developing rural regions would increase the contribution to our economy and society made by rural areas.
- The key solution to maintaining rural populations is the availability of employment. It is important that the NPF is truly focused on creating opportunities for the people who live in the regions, whether in cities, towns or rural areas.
Employment and Enterprise
- In the Issues and Choices paper a narrow definition of ‘job’, ‘work’ and ‘employer’ as a full-time permanent employee travelling every day to a specific work location seems to be assumed. This does not recognise either the current reality of ‘work’ or the likely changes to 2040. Self-employment, the ‘gig’ or ‘sharing’ economy, contract work, freelancing, e-Working, multiple income streams, online business are all trends that are redefining the conceptions of work, enterprise and their physical location.
- If the NPF mainly equates ‘employer’ with a large IT services or high-tech manufacturing company, many of which (though by no means all) are attracted to larger cities, then it will only address the needs of a small proportion of the State’s population and labour force.
- Similarly the NPF must recognise the need to enable and support the diversification of the Irish economy and enterprise base. It must provide a support framework for indigenous business growth across all regions and particularly in sectors where regions have comparative advantage.
Location Decisions
- While job opportunities are a critical factor in people’s decision of where to live, they are by no means the only factor. Many other personal and social factors influence this decision such as closeness to family (including for childcare and elder care reasons), affordability, social and lifestyle preferences, connection to place and community.
- Many people have selected to live in one location but commute to work elsewhere or, in some cases, e-Work for a number of days a week. The NPF needs to recognise the complexity of reasons for people’s location decisions in planning for the development of settlements.
Infrastructure
- New infrastructure can be transformative (the increase in motorway infrastructure in recent decades shows how some change happens relatively quickly). Therefore it is essential that we carefully consider where we place new investments. To do so, capital appraisal and evaluation methods determining the costs and benefits of different investment projects need to be re-examined if we are to move from a ‘business as usual’ approach.
- Investment in infrastructure can strongly influence the location of other infrastructure with a detrimental impact on unserved locations. The North West of the country is at a disadvantage compared to other regions with regard to motorway access. This situation will be compounded if investment in rail is focused on those routes with better road access (motorways) in order for rail to stay competitive, or if communications or electricity networks are developed along existing motorway or rail corridors.
- The WDC believes that the regional cities can be developed more and have untapped potential, however better intra-regional linkages are needed. The weaker links between the regional centres – notably Cork to Limerick and north of Galway through to Sligo and on to Letterkenny, are likely to be a factor in the relatively slower growth of regional centres in contrast to the motorway network, most of which serves Dublin from the regions.
Climate Change
For the future, the need to move to a low carbon, fossil fuel free economy is essential and needs to be an integral and much more explicit part of the NPF. The National Mitigation Plan for Climate Change is currently being developed, and it is essential that actions under the NPF will be in line with, and support, the actions in the Mitigation Plan.
How should the NPF be implemented?
- While much of the role of the NPF is strategic vision and coordination of decision-making, in order for the Framework to be effective it is essential that the achievement of the vision and the actions essential to it are appropriately resourced. The Issues and Choices paper does not give a detailed outline of how the NPF implementation will be resourced, except through the anticipated alignment with the Capital Investment Programme.
- It should be remembered that policy on services and regional development is not just implemented through capital spending but also though current spending and through policy decisions with spatial implications (such as those relating to the location of services). Therefore it is essential that other spending, investment and policy decisions are in line with the NPF rather than operating counter to it.
- While the NPF is to provide a high level Framework for development in Ireland to 2040, it seems this Framework is to be implemented at a regional level through the RSES. The Framework and the Strategies are therefore interlinked yet the respective roles of the NPF and the RSES are not explicit and so it is not evident which areas of development will be influenced by the NPF and which by the RSES.
- In order to ensure that the NPF is implemented effectively it is important that there is a single body with responsibility for its delivery and that there is a designated budget to help achieve its implementation.
It is expected that a draft National Planning Framework document will be published for consultation in May. Following that a final version of the Framework will be prepared for discussion and consideration by Dáil Éireann.
As mentioned above the full WDC submission on the Issues and Choices paper Ireland 2040 Our Plan- A National Planning Framework is available here (PDF 4.5MB) and a summary of key point and responses to consultation questions is available here (PDF 0.7MB).
Helen McHenry
How is the Western Region doing?
On 31 January, the WDC was invited to give a presentation to officials of the Department of Social Protection working across the Western Region. The objective was to give an overview of the WDC’s analysis of data across a range of socio-economic issues.
Analysing regional data provides information on the areas for which we are responsible and highlights the multi-dimensional nature of the concept of regional development. A regional perspective is necessary since changes and inequalities not only occur among individuals but also the places where they live
This (very) comprehensive presentation analyses the following indicators:
- Population: Preliminary Census 2016 Results
- Labour Market: QNHS Q1 2016, special run
- Income: County Incomes & Regional GDP, 2013-2014
- Enterprise: Business Demography, 2014
These are some of the key points emerging from the analysis.
Population
- Population of Western Region grew +0.9% 2011-2016 compared with +3.7% growth nationally.
- Three counties in the Western Region showed population decline 2011-2016 –(Donegal -1.5%, Mayo -0.2% and Sligo -0.1%) – only counties in Ireland to do so. In addition Leitrim and Roscommon had the lowest growth. Galway city had 5th highest population growth in Ireland.
- Every county in Ireland had a positive natural increase (more births than deaths) during 2011-2016. Donegal, Sligo and Mayo however had enough negative net migration to lead to population decline.
- All western counties, and all but six areas nationally, had negative net migration between 2011 and 2016. Donegal and Sligo had the two highest rates of negative net migration.
- Male out-migration considerably higher than female leading to a +1.5% increase in the female population of the Western Region and only +2% growth in the male population.
Figure 1: Percentage change in population by administrative area, 2011-2016. CSO (2016), Preliminary Results Census 2016
Labour Market
- The Western Region’s labour force declined marginally (-1.2%) between 2007 and 2016. Within this the male labour force fell by -6.1% while the female rose by +5.7%.
- The Western Region has a lower share of its labour force aged under 35 years and a higher share aged over 44 Its labour force participation rate is lower for both men and women, and across all age groups (except 65+).
- Total employment in the region fell by -5.8% 2007-2016 compared with a -6.5% decline in the rest of the state (all counties outside Western Region)
- There has been exceptionally strong growth in self-employment in the Western Region since 2012, increasing by +31.1% in the region compared with +7.2% in the rest of the state.
- Growth of self-employment tied to sectoral pattern of growth with strongest jobs growth since 2012 in Agriculture, Construction, Accommodation & Food Service and Wholesale & Retail, all with high self-emp
- Since 2012 the Western Region has had jobs decline in 7 out of 14 sectors, in the rest of the state there was only decline in 1 out of 14. Jobs recovery in the Western Region is not as diversified across the economy as elsewhere and more concentrated in domestic sectors
- Unemployment numbers declining steadily in region, but share of long-term unemployment growing. Western Region has higher unemployment rate in all age groups (except 65+ & 25-34) and particularly among youth.
Figure 2: % change in employment by sector in Western Region and Rest of State, 2012-2016. CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2012-2016, special run
Income
- Disposable income per person in the Western Region was €17,260 in 2013 (92.3% of State). Provisional 2014 figures show some growth (€17,768) but still well below the 2008 peak (€21,167).
- Longer term, the gap is narrowing, the Western Region had disposable income of 84.3% of State in 1995, 92.3% of State in 2013.
- Within the Western Region, Roscommon had a significantly lower income relative to the State in 2014 (87.2%) compared with 2005 (95.8%). Clare has also fallen relative to the State starting at 95.5% in 2005 and dropping to 93.3% in 2014. Sligo, Galway, Mayo and Donegal have all improved their position relative to the State since 2005, albeit with some variation. Galway and Sligo had greatest improvements.
Figure 3: Index of disposable income per person in western counties, 2005-2014 (Index State=100). CSO, County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013, provisional 2014
Gross Value Added
- Dublin region is the only region where the preliminary 2014 GVA per person figure is higher than the peak GVA per person in 2007. None of the other regions have recovered to the 2007 level, though the difference in the West region is slight.
- Dublin and Mid-East and South West, only regions with a greater share of national GVA than share of persons at work.
- In 2005 there were 60.6 index points between the lowest GVA per person in a region (Midland, 65.4) and the highest (Dublin and the Mid-East, 126.0). In 2014 the difference between Midland (59.2) and Dublin and the Mid-East, (130.6) was 71.4 index points (71.3 in 2013).
Figure 4: Index of GVA per person by region, 2005-2014 (Index State=100). CSO, County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013, provisional 2014
Enterprise
- The share of enterprises nationally that are based in the Western Region is declining and was 17.1% of the total in 2014.
- Construction, Wholesale & Retail, Professional activities and Accommodation & Food Service are the largest enterprise sectors in the region. Less than 5% of the region’s enterprises are in Financial & Insurance and Information & Communications combined.
- There has been a far greater decline in enterprise numbers in the Western Region than the rest of the state since 2008 and the region had a weaker performance – greater decline or lower growth – in every sector (ex. real estate).
- The enterprise base differs across more urban and rural counties. Highly rural counties of Roscommon, Mayo and Donegal have 34-36% of enterprises in Industry and Construction but in more urban counties of Clare and Sligo it is around 30%. A higher share of enterprises in Galway and Sligo are active in knowledge services sectors, though even Galway is below national average. Local services play a larger role in more rural counties.
- Western counties had among the greatest losses of enterprises since 2008. Donegal lost more than 1 in 3 of its Construction firms; Wholesale & Retail declined most strongly in Donegal and Clare; Accommodation & Food Service declined across most counties.
- Knowledge services performed best, though from a low base.
Figure 5: % change in number of active enterprises by sector in Western Region & Rest of State, 2008-2014. CSO, Business Demography, 2014
The full presentation can be downloaded here (PDF, 2MB)
Pauline White & Helen McHenry
Future Work – What will work and workers be like in the future?
A conference on the Future of Work, on 29th November, organised by the Sunday Business Post highlighted the trends and influences which are likely to impact on the types of jobs that will be in demand in the future.
In his keynote address, Ade McCormack, former technologist and Financial Times columnist explained why work will be quite a different experience for our children. He tracks human development and work from Stone Age man to now and suggests that we are moving from the Information age into the Biological age. This will include moving from a stage of using and wearing technology to possibly have technology embedded in us. He also suggests that as many as 50% of jobs in the future will be done by robots and humans will need to develop their creative potential rather than engage in mundane tasks which will be done increasingly by robots.
He also notes that the digital economy is driving fundamental power shifts including: from the employer to the employee, from the seller to the buyer and from the government to the citizen.
In his presentation on How to future proof your workplace? Peter Cosgrove, Director, CPL and Founder of the Future of Work Institute, Ireland, highlighted some key issues and trends which will impact on employment including;
- The impact of technology on all businesses and how technology is affecting recruitment methods with social media an increasingly important aspect.
- How businesses are being affected by a global marketplace, flexible working and adapting to the new generation of workers. Work in the future will not be a place to go to, but a thing to do!
- The importance of talent, innovation and how gender diversity will become increasingly important
- The employer brand is important and employers will need to adapt to ensure they attract future talent in a talent scarce marketplace.
Fiona Mullen, the HR Director at Facebook discussed How companies can provide outstanding workplaces which are enablers for productivity, creativity and innovation. Fiona provided an interesting account of the Facebook story and the values of being ‘bold’ in a brave and innovative way and open to its staff and customers. The company tries to avoid being hierarchical and engages with staff in building trust and a common purpose. The company motto is ‘This Journey is 1% Finished’, illustrating its ongoing ambition.
Annette Burns, Director of eumom highlighted the growing importance of women in the workforce. She noted that Western economies are facing a skills crisis where a birth rate of 2.1 is needed just to keep standing still; yet every year thousands of skilled women leave the workforce. In Ireland alone, over 3000 fulltime women leave every year. In the US 3 million professional women are keen to re-enter the workplace. eumom, has researched the issues and has identified what limits women’s participation and what are the enablers to contributing now and in the future.
Professor Anthony Staines, DCU discussed how changing skills requirements alter education priorities for individuals and policy-makers across the stages of formal education? In particular he examines the focus on STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths) subjects and suggests that while this is important there is a need to focus on other skills also. He notes that in comparison to other countries we do have a well-educated workforce, though there are some issues with early school leaving and the youth who disengage from formal education. He noted that our education system is getting better at supporting lifelong learning but the main beneficiaries are those who are already well educated and have done well out of the education system. He suggests that in terms of educational outcomes Ireland is good at equality but not equity. He welcomed the developments undertaken by SOLAS in expanding and modernising the apprentice system in Ireland and suggests that employers should increasingly try to employ apprentices rather than the traditional focus on graduates. He also noted that while technology is solving a lot of problems there are some persistent problems that need much attention such as
- Persistent poverty
- Climate change
- Migration
- Controlling corporations
Mark Coleman, Research Director at Gartner discussed the issue of Competing for Top Talent. Though most CIOs believe there is a talent crisis, they engage in surprisingly little talent innovation. In particular, they should consider new approaches to acquiring and keeping top talent. To compete in this arena, CIOs must borrow the mindset, tools and technologies of branding and marketing. Seeing talent as a customer, and employment by IT as a brand promise fulfilled, will improve talent acquisition and retention.
In her Ministerial Address: Mary Mitchell O’Connor, T.D, Minister for Jobs, Enterprise & innovation noted the new jobs announcements she had made that morning in pharmaceuticals and communications and that they were likely to be an important feature of the economy in the future. She highlighted the new data on unemployment which is now at the lowest rate in many years and the importance of continuing to ensure that all have an opportunity to enter the workforce. The Minister noted the role of the Regional Action Plans for Jobs and the new Regional Skills Fora as an important initiative designed to bring employers and educationalists together to ensure skills gaps are overcome.
Professor Cathal O’Donoghue, Director, Rural Economy and Development Programme, Teagasc discussed The Future of Work in the regional economies of Ireland. He showed how the recent recession and economic recovery has affected different parts of Ireland in different ways, which has resulted in diverging labour markets. He discussed recent drivers in relation to regional economic growth, demographic and labour market changes. The Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas outlined a strategy to both increase employment in the short term and to move employment up the value chain in the medium term.
Kevin Empey, Director, Willis Towers Watson discussed how advances in technology are redefining employer/employee relationships. He explored what is changing in the employer / employee landscape and how organisations can prepare for a rapidly changing workforce and workplace. He discussed how demographic and technology trends are converging to transform working environments globally as well as the implications for Business Leaders, for HR and for employees.
The conference concluded with an interesting Panel Discussion on The ‘Gig’ economy and What it means for work in the future? This on-demand, or so called ‘gig’ economy is creating exciting economies and unleashing innovation. But there are important hard questions about workforce protections and what a ‘good’ job will look like in the future.
Deirdre Frost
Enterprise in Western Counties
Last week the WDC published two new WDC Insights publications. They were both based on our analysis of the CSO’s Business Demography 2014 data which measures active enterprises in the business economy.[1] The publications were:
In a previous blog, I outlined our analysis of the data for the Western Region. In this blog the focus will be on the analysis at county level. It should be noted that in this CSO dataset, enterprises are assigned to the county where they are registered with the Revenue Commissioners. A business with multiple locations (e.g. chain stores, multinationals) is counted once. Although this limits the data somewhat, and tends to increase the numbers for Dublin, it is a good reflection of local business activity.
Change in enterprise numbers in western counties since 2008
There were a total of 40,797 active enterprises in the Western Region in 2014. Galway had the highest number at just over 13,000, while there were 1,750 registered in Leitrim (Table 1). All western counties experienced a decline in enterprise numbers between 2008 and 2014 that was greater than the national average (-2.4%). At -13.4% Donegal had the second highest decline in Ireland (after Monaghan).
Not surprisingly, the sector which declined most in all counties was Construction. Wholesale & Retail also declined across all counties and most strongly in Donegal and Clare – possibly influenced by their proximity to other large retail centres. Accommodation & Food Service declined across most counties, especially Clare. Combined with a large decline in Transportation & Storage, this may be due to reduced flights into Shannon airport.
In general the knowledge services sectors performed best. ICT, professional and financial services grew strongly in all counties (with only Clare having a decline in ICT services). Despite this growth however, these sectors continue to play a relatively small role in the enterprise base of most western counties.
Enterprise base of western counties
Construction and Wholesale & Retail are the largest enterprise sectors in every county (Fig. 1). In the highly rural counties of Roscommon, Mayo and Donegal 34-36% of enterprises are in the traditional sectors of Industry and Construction, while in the more urban counties of Clare and Sligo it is around 30%. In Donegal and Leitrim over 40% of enterprises are in the local services of retail, accommodation and transport which rely on domestic spending and tourism. These activities play a key role in the enterprise base of all counties, though Galway’s more diverse enterprise mix means it is least reliant on them.
Galway city and Sligo town are strong regional centres for knowledge service firms and this is clear from the quite high shares of their enterprises in professional, financial and ICT services. In contrast, these sectors account for only 17% of registered enterprises in Roscommon.
A few examples of particular sectoral enterprise strengths stand out, such as Administration & Support Services in Clare which includes aircraft leasing activities around Shannon and Information & Communications and Financial & Insurance in Galway. Construction remains hugely important to the enterprise profile of the largely rural counties of Roscommon and Mayo.
Conclusion
There is considerable variation across the seven western counties in terms of their enterprise base. In general, counties with a higher share of their population living in urban centres (Galway, Clare and Sligo) tend to have a greater share of knowledge services firms and lower reliance on traditional sectors. The general pattern since 2008 has been one of growth in knowledge services but decline in Construction and local services, a similar pattern to employment trends. This pattern has a spatial impact as the former tend to concentrate in urban areas while the latter are more important to rural economies.
Pauline White
[1] It excludes Agriculture, Health, Public Administration and Other Services, as well as activities of holding companies. It includes data on Education but this is not counted in ‘total business economy’ as many of the enterprises are publicly owned and is not analysed here.
No. of Enterprises in Western Region declines 8.6% since 2008
The CSO recently released their Business Demography data for 2014 which, combined with the Preliminary Results of Census 2016, shows the continuation of clear economic as well as demographic spatial patterns.
The Business Demography data measures active enterprises in the business economy[1] and provides data at county level. An enterprise is assigned to the county where it is registered with the Revenue, so for a business that has multiple locations (e.g. chain stores, banks, multinationals) the business is only counted in the county where it is registered (often Dublin). This makes the data somewhat limited, however it does give a true reflection of enterprises that are registered and operating in a county.
Greater decline in enterprise numbers in Western Region since 2008
In 2014 there were 40,797 active enterprises registered in the seven county Western Region. This was 8.6% below the 44,621 in 2008. In contrast, in the rest of the state (all counties other than the seven counties of the Western Region) the number in 2014 was just 1% below the 2008 figure. And there were even greater differences when we consider sectors. Fig. 1 shows that with the sole exception of Real Estate, the Western Region had a weaker performance – greater decline or lower growth – than the rest of the state in every sector between 2008 and 2014.
Fig. 1: Percentage change in active enterprises, Western Region and Rest of State, 2008-2014. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7
Weaker performance for Western Region across almost all sectors
Unsurprisingly Construction experienced the greatest decline in the number of enterprises, while the locally traded services sectors of Transportation & Storage, Wholesale & Retail also declined in both the region and rest of the state. For three sectors (Financial & Insurance, Accommodation & Food Service, and Industry) there was a fall in the region, but growth elsewhere. The Financial & Insurance sector shows a very stark difference, while there was also a substantial difference for Industry.
In the sectors where the Western Region experienced growth, we can see there was a considerable gap with the rest of the state the knowledge services sectors of Information & Communications and Professional services.
Higher share of enterprises in traditional sectors and local services
The difference in the experience over the period contributed to the current enterprise profile of the the Western Region and rest of the state. Fig. 2 shows that, similar to employment patterns, the traditional sectors (Construction and Industry) and local services (Wholesale & Retail and Accommodation & Food Service) account for larger shares of all enterprises in the region, with a lower share of enterprises in knowledge services sectors.
Fig. 2: Percentage of active enterprises by sector, Western Region and rest of state, 2014. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7
Varying performance for western counties
From Fig. 3 it is clear that there were massive differences in the experience of counties over the period, ranging from a 14.2% decline in the number of enterprises in Monaghan to a 7.1% increase in Dublin, the only county with more registered enterprises in 2014 than in 2008. This is of course influenced by the practice of registering business headquarters in Dublin even if they have locations in other counties. Evan allowing for this, there is a clear spatial pattern with Border and Midland counties experiencing particularly large declines.
Among the western counties, two of the large rural counties (Donegal and Mayo) experienced the greatest declines in enterprise numbers. Roscommon, Clare, Galway and Leitrim meanwhile had quite similar experiences, declining by around 7%. Sligo performed best with a fall of just over 4% in its number of enterprises. The enterprise profile of each county and the performance of enterprises in different sectors is a key explanation for these county differences and we’ll examine county patterns in more detail in a future post.
Fig. 3: Percentage change in active enterprises by county, 2008-2014. Western counties in green. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7
In addition to the data on enterprise numbers, the Business Demography data also provides information on employment in these enterprises, which we’ll also examine in more detail in future. But this initial overview of the data clearly shows a significant decline in the number of enterprises based in the Western Region which is reflected in a weaker performance across all sectors of the business economy.
Pauline White
[1] It does not include Agriculture, Health, Public Administration or Other Services. While it does include data on Education, that sector is not counted in the total figures as many of the enterprises in the sector are publicly owned.
E-Working – what are the trends?
E-work or electronic working, also referred to as teleworking, are terms used to describe work which uses communications technology to work remotely from the office location.
With the widespread rollout of broadband services it might be expected that e-working is becoming more common. Is e-work more prevalent in urban or rural areas? To what extent does weaker broadband access in more rural locations impact on the rate of e-working? What are the other factors driving e-work?
What does the data say?
The evidence on e-working in Ireland is limited and complicated by different definitions.
Time series data is available from the Census and the most recent data available is from 2011. The 2011 Census asks whether one ‘works mainly at or from home’. Trend data shows that the level and share of those working mainly at or from home is in decline, as the chart below shows.
Chart 1. Population at work, population working mainly at or from home and share of working population working mainly at or from home
Source: CSO Census of Population: Statbank Interactive tables
In 1986 17.2% of workers were reported as working at or mainly from home and this had declined to 4.7% in 2011. However this includes those engaged in agricultural employment and the decline in numbers engaged in this sector would largely explain the overall decline.
In 2002, the CSO carried out a special survey on Teleworking, which examined the profile of teleworkers in Ireland across a range of characteristics. It distinguished between (1) those who work from home and (2) those who work from home and use a computer and (3) those who work from home and need a computer with a telecommunications link, this latter group are defined as teleworkers. This survey found that nationally 2.3% of those in employment were classed as teleworkers. It should be noted that these data exclude workers in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector.
More recently a survey conducted by UPC (3.41 MB) in 2014 found that 47% of Irish employees use the internet at home in relation to work, up from 45% in 2012.
Regional differences
There are regional differences recorded, for example in the CSO 2002 survey the Mid-East region recording the highest rate at 2.9%. This is followed by Dublin with 2.7% of those in employment classed as teleworkers. Commuting to Dublin is likely to be an important driver explaining the higher rate in the Mid-East. The lowest rate of teleworking was recorded in the Mid-West with a rate of 1.5% of all in employment classified as teleworking. The West region, comprising largely rural counties of Mayo, Roscommon and Galway, recorded a rate of 2.2% teleworkers as a percentage of those in employment, higher than might be expected if access to quality broadband was a key driver.
More questions than answers
The difference in e-working levels reported – from 2.3% in the CSO 2002 survey through to 47% employees from the UPC 2014 survey raise further questions. Definitional differences no doubt explain some of the difference, though it is also likely that excluding Agriculture, the trend is may be upward, as evidenced by the UPC findings.
The 2016 Census figures should be available next year and it will be interesting to identify trends, especially since the return to employment growth. In the meantime further analysis of Census 2011 data is planned, examining occupational, sectoral and regional differences.
Other aspects to be examined in forthcoming work by the WDC include positive benefits that can accrue from more e-working such as carbon savings through lower transport emissions, more family friendly working and greater opportunities for employment creation and retention in more rural locations.
Deirdre Frost
Image source:www.alliedworldwide.com
The changing face of export sector jobs
The nature of Ireland’s exporting sector – and jobs in that sector – has been changing over the past decade (or more), with an ever expanding role for international services. The shift towards a greater share of service jobs is of course evident across the entire economy, but is particularly noticeable in the exporting sector as an increasing number of new job announcements are service-based. The so-called Silicon Docks area of Dublin is where this pattern can be most clearly seen.
Is this change in the nature of export sector jobs occurring to the same extent in the Western Region? To analyse what’s happening at a regional and county level, we’ll use the Annual Employment Survey 2014 conducted by the Department of Jobs, Enterprise & Innovation (special run of county data). This counts all jobs in companies which have received any assistance from Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland or Udarás na Gaeltachta (which are primarily exporting companies).
Assisted jobs – Manufacturing v Services
Comparing the broad sectoral structure of agency assisted jobs in 2005 (Fig. 1) shows how the pattern differed between the Western Region and the rest of the state. In 2005, 77.4% of assisted jobs in the Western Region were in manufacturing, with Traditional and Modern Manufacturing both having a similar share of around 30%. In the rest of the state, a lower share (66.7%) was in manufacturing. The pattern of a greater role for manufacturing in the Western Region’s export sector was firmly in place at that time.
Fig. 1: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2005 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)
By 2014 (Fig. 2) the pattern in the rest of the state had changed substantially with manufacturing’s share declining to 54.4% of jobs. Whereas the balance between manufacturing and services changed very little in the Western Region with manufacturing still accounting for 74.7% of export employment. The share of export service jobs only rose slightly from 22.6% to 25.3%.
Fig. 2: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)
In the rest of the state, in 2005 the ratio of manufacturing to international services jobs was exactly 2:1 but by 2014 it had shifted far closer to 1:1. For the Western Region however manufacturing continues to dominate export sector jobs at a rate of 3:1.
While the total share of export jobs in manufacturing in the Western Region changed little between 2005 and 2014, the composition of those jobs has changed. Modern Manufacturing has greatly increased its share of assisted jobs to 35%, while the shares of both Traditional and Primary/Agri-food manufacturing declined. The decline in Traditional Manufacturing in particular was closely tied to declining demand from construction, although more recent figures show some recovery in elements of this sector such as precision engineering.
The growing role for Modern Manufacturing indicates an improving level of technology and value in the region’s manufacturing sector which can be seen by the role of manufacturing in the region’s GVA. In the latest GVA figures for the West region, 40.2% of its GVA came from Manufacturing – the second highest share nationally with only the South West having a higher share. In the Border it was 28.4%. See the WDC’s recent report on regional income and output.
Dominance of manufacturing in export businesses in western counties
This pattern of greater dominance of manufacturing in the export sector jobs profile is even stronger in some individual western counties (Fig. 3). In Mayo, Roscommon and Sligo over 85% of assisted jobs are in manufacturing. While its share declined slightly between 2005 and 2014 in these counties, overall there was little sign of growth in international services employment in these areas.
Donegal and Leitrim are the western counties with the lowest shares of their export sector jobs in manufacturing, but both are still above the rest of state average. The strong increase in the share of assisted jobs in manufacturing in Leitrim between 2005 and 2014 mainly resulted from a decline in international services jobs, a pattern which can also be seen to a lesser extent in Clare.
Among the western counties, Donegal and Galway showed the most significant declines in the share of jobs in manufacturing and consequent rise in the share of international services jobs between 2005 and 2014. These two counties appear to be the ones most closely following the national trend towards a greater role for international services.
Fig. 3: Total agency assisted jobs in manufacturing in western counties, 2005 and 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)
Manufacturing activity remains the dominant driver of export sector jobs in the Western Region, at a rate of 3:1, with over 90% working in the sector in some counties. While the role of international services is growing, this is occurring to a far lesser extent in the Western Region.
Addressing issues of significance to the manufacturing sector, such as transport infrastructure, freight, engineering skills, energy, heat etc, must remain central to efforts to sustain and grow the region’s export base, both foreign and indigenous, within the national context of a growing focus on service sector jobs. At the same time, any barriers to the growth of the international services sector, such as high speed broadband, need to be investigated and addressed.
Pauline White
Women, men and the jobs recovery
In previous posts we’ve looked at the Western Region’s Labour Market and its Sectoral Profile, but how do these patterns differ by gender? Is the current jobs recovery impacting on men and women differently?
While jobs growth is underway in the country as a whole, as well as in the Western Region (though at a lower level), this has mainly been driven by growth in male jobs. Between 2012 and 2014 male employment in the rest of the state (all counties other than the seven counties of the Western Region) increased by 5.9% compared with 1.6% growth in female employment. In the Western Region over the same period, 2.9% growth in male jobs was in contrast to a -0.4% decline in the number of women at work. Women in general do not appear to be benefiting as much as men from the upturn in the labour market, and even more so in the Western Region. Why is this?
Jobs growth in sectors important for male employment, but decline in many female dominated sectors
Much of it stems from the sectoral jobs pattern and the relative performance of male and female dominated sectors. Fig. 1 shows the percentage of male and female jobs in each sector in the Western Region. Public and local services are the main areas of employment for women. The biggest gender difference is in Health and Social Work which accounts for 22% of women’s jobs compared with 4.3% of men’s. A total of 41.1% of working women in the region work in the predominantly public sectors (Health, Education & Public Administration). For men the figure is just 12.9%. Any reduction or lack of growth in public sector jobs has a far greater impact on women’s employment.
Accommodation and Food Service, ‘Other NACE Activities’, Financial, Insurance and Real Estate, and Administrative and Support Services also account for a greater share of women’s than men’s jobs. These are all predominantly local services which have been impacted by limited domestic demand.
Industry, Agriculture, Construction, and Transport and Storage are the most male dominated sectors. Industry accounts for twice as large a share of all male jobs as female. For the others, their share of all female jobs is very low. It is notable that the knowledge services sector of Information and Communication, often seen as a key future growth area, accounts for a far higher share of male than female jobs.
Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by sector and gender in the Western Region, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)
Between 2012 and 2014 half of sectors (7 of 14) experienced an increase in employment in the Western Region (Fig. 2). Industry, Agriculture, Wholesale and Retail, and Accommodation and Food Service, the four largest male employment sectors, all experienced jobs growth. This contributed to the overall 2.9% growth in male jobs between 2012 and 2014.
However jobs in Health and Education declined in the region, while they rose in the rest of the state. Combined with declines in Finance, Other Services and Public Administration (all of which are more important female employers) these sectoral declines contributed to the -0.4% decline in women’s jobs in the region. The contraction of employment in Health and Education in particular has significant implications for women’s jobs, particularly in more rural areas of the region which have higher dependence on these sectors, partly due to limited alternative professional or clerical career opportunities.
Fig. 2: Percentage change in employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2012 to Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)
Lower female participation
A distinct gender pattern obvious from Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 is the higher proportion of men who are active in the labour force. The region’s male labour force participation rate is 65.2% compared with a female rate of 50.4%. The gender gap in participation rates narrowed during the recession as participation among men, particularly young men, fell very dramatically while female rates remained steady. However 2014 saw some widening of the gender gap again as the female rate declined and the male rate rose. The weaker recent female jobs performance may be contributing to declining female participation in the labour market.
Fig. 3: Economic status of Western Region’s male population aged 15 years and over, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 1. Special run)
Higher male unemployment but gap narrowing
Despite the stronger recent growth in male jobs, there is still a far greater number of unemployed men in the region than women – 26,200 compared with 14,400 (Fig. 3 and Fig. 4). The massive increase in unemployment from 2008 was initially concentrated among men, given the job losses in building and related sectors, before spreading more widely across the domestic economy leading to rising female job losses (though at a lower level).
The fall in unemployment since 2012 has been stronger among men than women; meaning that while the unemployment rates for both sexes have declined, the rate of decline has been stronger among men, narrowing the gender gap. In 2012 there was a 5.5 percentage point gap, which narrowed to 4.0 percentage points by 2014 when the region’s male unemployment rate was 13.3% and the female 9.3%. Unemployment continues to be higher among men but the difference is declining.
Fig. 4: Economic status of Western Region’s female population aged 15 years and over, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 1. Special run)
Note: The percentages refer to the share of the adult population in each category. Therefore the percentage unemployed is not the same as the unemployment rate which refers to the number unemployed as a percentage of those in the labour force and not of the entire adult population.
Greater part-time working among women
The other key feature of Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 is the far greater share and level of part-time working among women. In 2014 almost twice as many women (52,600) as men (27,500) in the region were working part-time. As a proportion of total employment this was 37.4% of all working women compared with 16.1% of working men. A key aspect is the extent to which part-time working is by choice or involuntary. If a person would prefer to be working full-time (if a full-time job were available) they are considered to be part-time underemployment. For men who are working part-time, 40% are underemployed but for women it is 27%. The extent to which women choose part-time work is very often related to greater caring responsibilities and the availability (or lack) of appropriate and affordable care provision.
For both men and women the share working part-time is higher in the Western Region than the rest of the state. In the case of women, part-time working in the region has increased since 2012 (rising from 35.3% to 37.4%) while it has remained unchanged for women in the rest of the state and declined slightly among men in the region. Not only has total female employment in the region declined since 2012, but a greater proportion of those who are working are working part-time.
This analysis raises serious questions in relation to not only the spatial pattern of the current jobs recovery but also the gender pattern. Women in the Western Region appear to be experiencing the poorest jobs recovery; compared with men and also with women living elsewhere. The concentration of female jobs in public services and the recent employment declines in these sectors in the region seems to be one of the main reasons, a trend that requires further investigation.
Pauline White
The Western Region’s Sectoral Profile
We’ve just published WDC Insights-The Western Region’s Sectoral Profile-April 2015 (PDF 0.2MB) which presents the key findings from The Western Region’s Labour Market 2004-2014-WDC Report March 2015 (PDF 2.5MB) on the region’s sectoral pattern of employment.
Understanding the sectoral pattern of jobs in the region, and recent patterns of sectoral growth and decline, is particularly important to the development of job creation, skills and enterprise policy for the region.
Sector of employment
The two largest employment sectors in the Western Region are Wholesale and Retail, and Industry with around 30% of jobs (Fig. 1). Of the region’s top seven sectors, all (except Health) account for a greater share of jobs in the region than the rest of the state. Agriculture and Industry (manufacturing) are considerably more important in the region. Among the region’s smaller sectors the share working in them in the region is considerably below that in the rest of the state.
In general the Western Region’s jobs profile relies more heavily than the rest of the state on the traditional sectors (Industry, Agriculture and Construction) and local services (Wholesale and Retail, and Accommodation and Food Service) which depend on domestic spending and tourism. The region’s sectoral jobs pattern is influenced by its largely rural nature.
Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)
Western Region’s share of jobs by sector
This jobs pattern can also be seen in the region’s share of national total jobs in each sector. In total 16.5% of all jobs in the state are located in the Western Region (Fig. 2). Agriculture, Industry and Construction are the sectors where the region makes its largest contribution to national jobs.
The region’s share of all Industry jobs nationally has increased very strongly in recent years from 16% in 2007 to its current 19.5%, due to its relatively more stable jobs performance in the region. The region’s manufacturing strength is a key national asset and a previous blog post on ‘Trends in Agency Assisted Employment in the Western Region’ highlighted the industrial sub-sectors which have driven the region’s manufacturing strength.
The three knowledge intensive services sectors are where the region accounts for its lowest shares of national jobs. Less than 10% of all Information and Communication, and Financial, Insurance and Real Estate jobs are based in the region and its share of both has declined since 2012. Not only does the region have low shares in these sectors but it is losing ground.
Fig. 2: Percentage of total employment in the state based in the Western Region by sector, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)
Recent changes in employment by sector
Between 2012 and 2014 half of sectors (7 of 14) experienced jobs growth in the Western Region (Fig. 3). Agriculture grew most strongly followed by Professional, Scientific and Technical activities next. Growth in these sectors contributed to the region’s increasing share of self-employment. Wholesale and Retail and Accommodation and Food Service also grew as this period coincided with an increase in overseas visitor numbers as well as consumer spending.
The Western Region experienced a far greater jobs decline than the rest of the state across many sectors, including knowledge intensive services and public services. In the case of Information and Communication, employment fell by nearly 16% in the region but it had the fourth largest growth in the rest of the country (5.2%). The reasons for the Western’s Region poor, and weakening, jobs performance in this high growth potential sector need to be investigated.
Fig. 3: Percentage change in employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2012 to Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)
These key aspects of the Western Region’s labour market should inform the development of the upcoming Action Plan for Jobs for the West, Border and Mid-West regions. The region’s labour market characteristics should influence which policies are prioritised for the region and the sectors of focus for job creation strategies.
Download WDC Insights The Western Region’s Sectoral Profile and full report ‘The Western Region’s Labour Market 2004-2014’ here
Pauline White
Note: The CSO has noted concerns over the impact of the new sampling structure on the employment figures for Agriculture.
Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 1 2004-2014, special run
