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Self-employment increases by 10,000 in Western Region

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The biggest change in the Western Region’s labour market over the past year has been an exceptionally rapid expansion in self-employment.  According to a special run of the CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey for Quarter 1 2016 for the Western Region, between Quarter 1 2015 and Quarter 1 2016 the number of people in the Western Region who are self-employed grew by 15.4%. That was an increase of 10,000 people, from 65,000 up to 75,000.  This was in sharp contrast to the change in the number of people who were working as employees in the region, which actually declined marginally over the same period -0.2% (from 249,600 down to 249,200).

There has been a steady upward trend in the numbers self-employed in the region since 2012, but 2016 was marked by an exceptionally large rise (Fig. 1). From Fig. 1 it can be seen that the number of self-employed who are employing others actually declined between 2012 and 2014 but has grown strongly since.  Indeed between 2015 and 2016 this type of self-employment increased by a quarter (up 25%).  The strong growth in the number with employees is a very positive indication of the growth potential of some of these businesses. Currently there are 19,000 people self-employed and employing others in the Western Region.

Self-employed with no paid employees is by far the more common type of self-employment however.  This has grown in each year since 2012, except 2015, and increased by 12.4% in the past year to now stand at 56,000. This type of self-employment plays a key role in ensuring that people can continue to live and work in smaller towns and rural areas.

Fig. 1: Number of self-employed persons in the Western Region, with and without paid employees, Q1 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2016, special run

Fig. 1: Number of self-employed persons in the Western Region, with and without paid employees, Q1 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2016, special run

The growth in self-employment was the sole driver of any jobs growth that took place in the Western Region in this period.  The total number of people at work in the region rose by 3.5% between Q1 2015 and Q1 2016 and this was entirely due to self-employment.

Contrast to situation in rest of the state

The massive growth in self-employment between 2015 and 2016 was unique to the Western Region.  For the rest of the state (all other counties in Ireland combined) the number of self-employed people actually fell during this period by -1.3%, it was the same for those with and without employees.  The number of people working as employees grew however (up 2.8%) in contrast to the decline experienced in the Western Region.

Total jobs growth in the rest of the state was lower than that in the region (2.2% v 3.5%) over the period and the region’s stronger overall performance was caused by people creating their own jobs. While the region had stronger jobs growth during 2015-2016, over the longer period since 2012 the region has had lower growth.  The total number in employment rose by 6.4% in the Western Region between 2012 and 2016, but by 8.7% in the rest of the state.

High share of all jobs are in self-employment

The Western Region’s labour market differs markedly from that elsewhere.  The recent growth in self-employment in the region has further reinforced its key role.  22.9% of people at work in the Western Region work for themselves, while in the rest of the state it is 15.2% (Fig. 2).

In the rest of the state the share of self-employed has not fluctuated a great deal over the past decade.  There was only a 1.5 percentage point difference between the highest and lowest years.  In the Western Region, volatility has been far greater with a 4.3 percentage point difference between the highest (2016) and lowest (2012) years.  It is notable that the share now in 2016 is even higher than it was in 2007 or 2008 when self-employment in the construction sector would have been at its highest.

Fig. 2: Total self-employment as a percentage of total number in employment in Western Region and rest of state, Q1 2007 – Q1 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2016, special run

Fig. 2: Total self-employment as a percentage of total number in employment in Western Region and rest of state, Q1 2007 – Q1 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2016, special run

Reasons for growth

The underlying factors driving strong self-employment growth in the region are varied and complex.  The relative lack of more standard forms of job opportunities, especially in smaller towns and more rural areas can mean that in order to remain living in these areas people need to choose the option of self-employment.  General trends in the world of work such as the growth of the so-called ‘gig economy’, contract working and trends to outsourcing of certain services and activities by larger companies (e.g. transport) is also driving growth in self-employment, though whether such trends would manifest themselves more strongly in the Western Region is unclear.

The other key explanation for the growth in self-employment, while employee numbers fell, was the sectoral pattern of jobs growth during this period.  At a sectoral level the strongest jobs growth by far was in accommodation & food service, perhaps partly influenced by the Wild Atlantic Way tourism initiative as well as increasing domestic demand, followed by transportation & storage and construction (Fig. 3) all of which are sectors that show high levels of self-employment.

Fig. 3: Percentage change in number in employment by sector in Western Region, Q1 2015 - Q1 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2016, special run

Fig. 3: Percentage change in number in employment by sector in Western Region, Q1 2015 – Q1 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2016, special run

The 2014 Business Demography data showed that in the Western Region 88.8% of those working in accommodation & food service enterprises were employees with the remainder (11.2%) either owners or relatives.  In the rest of the state only 6.5% were owners/relatives showing greater self-employment in this sector in the region.  For transport the share of owners/relatives was 33.7% in the region compared with 21.5% in the rest of the state while for construction the difference was 43.4% in the region compared with 30.1% elsewhere. The three sectors with the strongest jobs growth in the Western Region between 2015 and 2016 all exhibit a far greater extent of self-employment in the region.

In contrast, industry, the sector which has the highest share of employees (96%) and therefore the lowest share of self-employment (4%), actually had jobs decline in the Western Region between 2015 and 2016.  The predominantly public service sectors of education, health and public administration, which would have low shares of self-employment, also reduced employment over the past year.

Conclusion

Increasingly, jobs growth in the Western Region is driven by self-employment and far more so than in the rest of the state.  This has significant implications for how jobs growth in the region is being, and can be, supported and encouraged.  It shows the importance of supports for the self-employed including issues around social protection, enterprise supports especially soft supports as many may be in locally trading sectors not eligible for grant aid, work space, broadband access and opportunities for networking.  The growth in the number of self-employed with employees is very positive and shows the potential contribution of the self-employed to jobs growth.  It also shows the importance of making it as easy as possible for the self-employed to begin hiring employees as well as the provision of information and advice on employment law and employee rights.

At the same time, these figures raise concerns about the capacity of job creation in other types of businesses, as the number of employees actually declined in the past year in the region while growing elsewhere. This seems to have been due to employment in the predominantly public sectors of education and health (significant employers) falling in the region, while growing in the rest of the state.  Jobs in industry and information & communications also declined.  We will return to the topic of 2016’s sectoral employment performance in a future post, but for now it is important to note that in the Western Region those sectors driven by self-employment are strongly out-performing the others.

Pauline White

Enterprise in Western Counties

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Last week the WDC published two new WDC Insights publications.  They were both based on our analysis of the CSO’s Business Demography 2014 data which measures active enterprises in the business economy.[1]  The publications were:

In a previous blog, I outlined our analysis of the data for the Western Region.  In this blog the focus will be on the analysis at county level. It should be noted that in this CSO dataset, enterprises are assigned to the county where they are registered with the Revenue Commissioners. A business with multiple locations (e.g. chain stores, multinationals) is counted once.  Although this limits the data somewhat, and tends to increase the numbers for Dublin, it is a good reflection of local business activity.

Change in enterprise numbers in western counties since 2008

There were a total of 40,797 active enterprises in the Western Region in 2014.  Galway had the highest number at just over 13,000, while there were 1,750 registered in Leitrim (Table 1).  All western counties experienced a decline in enterprise numbers between 2008 and 2014 that was greater than the national average (-2.4%).  At -13.4% Donegal had the second highest decline in Ireland (after Monaghan).

table-1-percentage-change-in-enterpises-in-western-counties-2008-2014

Not surprisingly, the sector which declined most in all counties was Construction.  Wholesale & Retail also declined across all counties and most strongly in Donegal and Clare – possibly influenced by their proximity to other large retail centres.  Accommodation & Food Service declined across most counties, especially Clare.  Combined with a large decline in Transportation & Storage, this may be due to reduced flights into Shannon airport.

In general the knowledge services sectors performed best.  ICT, professional and financial services grew strongly in all counties (with only Clare having a decline in ICT services).  Despite this growth however, these sectors continue to play a relatively small role in the enterprise base of most western counties.

Enterprise base of western counties

Construction and Wholesale & Retail are the largest enterprise sectors in every county (Fig. 1).  In the highly rural counties of Roscommon, Mayo and Donegal 34-36% of enterprises are in the traditional sectors of Industry and Construction, while in the more urban counties of Clare and Sligo it is around 30%.  In Donegal and Leitrim over 40% of enterprises are in the local services of retail, accommodation and transport which rely on domestic spending and tourism.  These activities play a key role in the enterprise base of all counties, though Galway’s more diverse enterprise mix means it is least reliant on them.

fig-1-percentage-of-enterprises-in-western-counties-2014

Galway city and Sligo town are strong regional centres for knowledge service firms and this is clear from the quite high shares of their enterprises in professional, financial and ICT services.  In contrast, these sectors account for only 17% of registered enterprises in Roscommon.

A few examples of particular sectoral enterprise strengths stand out, such as Administration & Support Services in Clare which includes aircraft leasing activities around Shannon and Information & Communications and Financial & Insurance in Galway.  Construction remains hugely important to the enterprise profile of the largely rural counties of Roscommon and Mayo.

Conclusion

There is considerable variation across the seven western counties in terms of their enterprise base.  In general, counties with a higher share of their population living in urban centres (Galway, Clare and Sligo) tend to have a greater share of knowledge services firms and lower reliance on traditional sectors.  The general pattern since 2008 has been one of growth in knowledge services but decline in Construction and local services, a similar pattern to employment trends.  This pattern has a spatial impact as the former tend to concentrate in urban areas while the latter are more important to rural economies.

Pauline White

[1] It excludes Agriculture, Health, Public Administration and Other Services, as well as activities of holding companies.  It includes data on Education but this is not counted in ‘total business economy’ as many of the enterprises are publicly owned and is not analysed here.

‘a creative momentum project’ supports four West of Ireland digital enterprises to attend Digital DNA in Armagh

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Sligo’s Reddin Designs, Roscommon-based Black Hole Studio, Happy Marketing & Media from Castlebar and Letterkenny’s DNK Media Productions were among ten creative companies from Ireland, Sweden, Iceland and Finland supported to attend the Digital DNA @ The Planetarium conference last week in Armagh.

‘Digital DNA was an excellent event with a strong focus on innovation within businesses,’ says Gary Reddin of Reddin Designs. ‘Thankfully for us, one of the messages I kept hearing was that ‘content is key’. One of the speakers said “Static images don’t have the same affect anymore, you need to make things move”, so as a recently established video production company, we were delighted to hear that!’ added Camilla Meegan of DNK Media Productions.

Fergal O’Connor (Happy Marketing & Media), Silvia Guglielmini (WDC), Gary Reddin (Reddin Designs), Kieran Kelly (DNK Media Productions) with staff of the AmmA Centre. Photo Credit: Kristina Jeppson

Fergal O’Connor (Happy Marketing & Media), Silvia Guglielmini (WDC), Gary Reddin (Reddin Designs), Kieran Kelly (DNK Media Productions) with staff of the AmmA Centre. Photo Credit: Kristina Jeppson

As well as attending the Digital DNA conference, the four enterprises took part in a Creative Exchange event discussing how to grow a digital business. This was a great chance for graphic designers, video makers, digital marketing experts and others working in the digital field, from five different countries, to connect. The group also visited the AmmA Centre, one of three Creative Learning Centres in Northern Ireland, where they had a chance to experiment with green screen technology.

‘The knowledge I gained here can help us to realise better results for our clients in the future. It confirmed for me that we are heading in the right direction,’ according to Fergal O’Connor of Happy Marketing & Media. ‘It was a great networking situation. The businesses from the other regions are all working in the creative industries and, with some of them, we will hopefully meet up in future and do some work together,’ added David Pierce of Black Hole Studio.

David Pierce (Black Hole Studio) practicing green screen technology with Niina Karvinen (Soma Media Ltd, Finland) at the AmmA Centre. Photo Credit: Kristin Jeppson

David Pierce (Black Hole Studio) practicing green screen technology with Niina Karvinen (Soma Media Ltd, Finland) at the AmmA Centre. Photo Credit: Kristin Jeppson

The ten digital entrepreneurs from Ireland, Sweden, Finland and Iceland were funded to participate in Digital DNA @ The Planetarium through ‘a creative momentum project’. The project is co-funded by the Northern Periphery & Arctic Programme (NPA) and supports the development of the creative industries sector across Europe’s Northern Edge. The project operates the www.MyCreativeEdge.eu website and in the West of Ireland is implemented by the Western Development Commission and NUI Galway.

Note for Editors:

Contact: Pauline White, a creative momentum project co-ordinator, WDC, 086 832 8055 or 094 986 1441

a creative momentum project is co-funded by the EU Interreg Northern Periphery & Arctic (NPA) Programme 2014-2020.  The NPA is a cooperation between nine programme partner countries; Finland, Ireland, Sweden, the United Kingdom (Scotland and Northern Ireland), Faroe Islands, Iceland, Greenland and Norway. The NPA 2014-2020 is part of the European Territorial Cooperation Objective, supported by the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and ERDF equivalent funding from non EU partner countries.

 a creative momentum project will be operated by six partner organisations across five regions:

  1. Western Development Commission (WDC), Ireland
  2. National University of Ireland, Galway (NUIG), Ireland
  3. North East Iceland Cultural Council, Iceland
  4. Armagh City, Craigavon and Banbridge Borough Council, Northern Ireland
  5. Technichus Mid-Sweden Ltd, Sweden
  6. Lapland University of Applied Sciences, Finland

Census 2016: Preliminary findings on housing stock and vacancy rates. What has been happening in the Western Region?

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A previous blog post Census 2016 Preliminary Results – What does it say about the Western Region? provided some headline figures on population and migration data in 2016 and changes since 2011.

Here I examine two further aspects; housing stock and vacancy rates and examine what is happening at a Western Region and county level.

What is the housing stock in the Western Region?

In April 2016, the Western Region had a housing stock of 404,494, an increase of 0.8% or 3,183 on 2011. Nationally the increase was 0.9% over this period (18,981). These relatively small increases are not surprising following the economic crash and the very limited house building that has taken place since then.

Within the Western Region there was an actual decline in housing stock in three of the counties, (see Table 1 below), Roscommon, -0.5% (-173), Sligo -0.2% (-51) and Leitrim -0.2% (-36), indicating some houses have been removed from the housing stock, though the data does not tell us whether these are ‘ghost estates’ or not.   Though these are marginal changes, there are also negative declines in just a few other places, Dublin and Limerick cities and Longford. In contrast, within the Region, only Galway city records a significant increase in housing stock – 3.5% – the highest recorded increase across the State.

housing-wr-5

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2011, Census of Population 2016, Preliminary Results.

As the change in housing stock is so closely related to the most recent period of economic growth and decline, it is interesting to look at the figures over the 10 year period, 2006-2016. This period marks the time immediately before the peak of economic growth and growth in housing supply and the economic crash following this, culminating in the current period, marked by a return to economic growth.

Between 2006 and 2016, there was an increase in housing stock of 16.4% in the Western Region and this compares to 14.3% nationally. Within the Region, some counties had a very significant increase in housing stock, Donegal (20.2%), Leitrim (19.1%) and Roscommon (16.9%), highlighting the particularly strong growth rates in the West.

The evident contrast between the growth in supply in the earlier period and the limited growth and contraction in the latter period highlights the difference in housing activity over the periods.

It is worth noting that even with the limited growth in housing stock in the latter period, the growth in the Western Region between 2006 and 2016 of 16.4% is still nearly than double the population growth in the Region over the same period – 8.6%.

Looking at the period 2011-2016, the percentage change in both population and households by county is presented in Figure 7 below. While Donegal lost population (-1.5%) it still experienced a small increase in the number of households (0.8%).

fig-7-change-in-pop-households-chart

What are the vacancy rates in the region?

The vacancy rate measures the share of the housing stock in each county that is recorded as a vacant dwelling by the Census enumerators.  The average vacancy rate in the Western Region in 2016 was 21.7%, marginally lower than in 2006 (22.8%).

 Fig. 2: Vacancy rates in western counties, Western Region and State, 2011 and 2016

vacancy-rates-11-16-wrSource: CSO, Census of Population 2011, Census of Population 2016, Preliminary Results.

In total Leitrim (29.5%), Donegal (28.2%) and Mayo (24.0%) had the highest vacancy rates in the region, while Galway city (10.5%) had the lowest.   All counties in the Western Region experienced a slight decrease in their vacancy rates between 2011 and 2016.

 Nationally, the average vacancy rate in 2016 was 19.9%, a decrease on the 2011 rate of 22.8%. At a national level, Leitrim and Donegal have the highest vacancy rates in the country and this was also the case in 2011. Figure 8 below shows the vacancy rate by county in 2016.

fig-8-vacant-dwellings

These data, though preliminary highlight a couple of important themes.

The first is that it is very clear that there are huge differences in housing stock and vacancy rates across the country.

There are also differences within Regions, for example though most counties in the Western Region report negative or less than 1 % growth in housing stock, Galway city on the other hand had the highest growth in housing stock across the country.

This analysis also highlights the value of a five yearly census. As Table 1 illustrates the difference evident in the last 5 years, compared to the previous 5 years is particularly evident in examining the changes to the hosing stock.

Deirdre Frost

No. of Enterprises in Western Region declines 8.6% since 2008

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The CSO recently released their Business Demography data for 2014 which, combined with the Preliminary Results of Census 2016, shows the continuation of clear economic as well as demographic spatial patterns.

The Business Demography data measures active enterprises in the business economy[1] and provides data at county level.  An enterprise is assigned to the county where it is registered with the Revenue, so for a business that has multiple locations (e.g. chain stores, banks, multinationals) the business is only counted in the county where it is registered (often Dublin).  This makes the data somewhat limited, however it does give a true reflection of enterprises that are registered and operating in a county.

Greater decline in enterprise numbers in Western Region since 2008

In 2014 there were 40,797 active enterprises registered in the seven county Western Region.  This was 8.6% below the 44,621 in 2008.  In contrast, in the rest of the state (all counties other than the seven counties of the Western Region) the number in 2014 was just 1% below the 2008 figure.  And there were even greater differences when we consider sectors.  Fig. 1 shows that with the sole exception of Real Estate, the Western Region had a weaker performance – greater decline or lower growth – than the rest of the state in every sector between 2008 and 2014.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in active enterprises, Western Region and Rest of State, 2008-2014. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7

Fig. 1: Percentage change in active enterprises, Western Region and Rest of State, 2008-2014. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7

Weaker performance for Western Region across almost all sectors

Unsurprisingly Construction experienced the greatest decline in the number of enterprises, while the locally traded services sectors of Transportation & Storage, Wholesale & Retail also declined in both the region and rest of the state.  For three sectors (Financial & Insurance, Accommodation & Food Service, and Industry) there was a fall in the region, but growth elsewhere.  The Financial & Insurance sector shows a very stark difference, while there was also a substantial difference for Industry.

In the sectors where the Western Region experienced growth, we can see there was a considerable gap with the rest of the state the knowledge services sectors of Information & Communications and Professional services.

Higher share of enterprises in traditional sectors and local services

The difference in the experience over the period contributed to the current enterprise profile of the the Western Region and rest of the state. Fig. 2 shows that, similar to employment patterns, the traditional sectors (Construction and Industry) and local services (Wholesale & Retail and Accommodation & Food Service) account for larger shares of all enterprises in the region, with a lower share of enterprises in knowledge services sectors.

Fig. 2: Percentage of active enterprises by sector, Western Region and rest of state, 2014. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7

Fig. 2: Percentage of active enterprises by sector, Western Region and rest of state, 2014. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7

Varying performance for western counties

From Fig. 3 it is clear that there were massive differences in the experience of counties over the period, ranging from a 14.2% decline in the number of enterprises in Monaghan to a 7.1% increase in Dublin, the only county with more registered enterprises in 2014 than in 2008.  This is of course influenced by the practice of registering business headquarters in Dublin even if they have locations in other counties.  Evan allowing for this, there is a clear spatial pattern with Border and Midland counties experiencing particularly large declines.

Among the western counties, two of the large rural counties (Donegal and Mayo) experienced the greatest declines in enterprise numbers.  Roscommon, Clare, Galway and Leitrim meanwhile had quite similar experiences, declining by around 7%.  Sligo performed best with a fall of just over 4% in its number of enterprises.  The enterprise profile of each county and the performance of enterprises in different sectors is a key explanation for these county differences and we’ll examine county patterns in more detail in a future post.

Fig. 3: Percentage change in active enterprises by county, 2008-2014. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7

Fig. 3: Percentage change in active enterprises by county, 2008-2014. Western counties in green. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2014 http://bit.ly/2ac2fw7

In addition to the data on enterprise numbers, the Business Demography data also provides information on employment in these enterprises, which we’ll also examine in more detail in future. But this initial overview of the data clearly shows a significant decline in the number of enterprises based in the Western Region which is reflected in a weaker performance across all sectors of the business economy.

Pauline White

 

[1] It does not include Agriculture, Health, Public Administration or Other Services. While it does include data on Education, that sector is not counted in the total figures as many of the enterprises in the sector are publicly owned.

Census 2016 Preliminary Results – What does it say about the Western Region?

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The headline figures from the preliminary Census 2016 figures show a population that is growing, nationally by 3.7% over the last 5 years. However it is not evenly spread and it is clear that much of the growth is on the East coast and in urban centres.

Nationally the population is now 4.75 million, an increase of 3.7% on the 2011 figure of 4.58 million. The Western Region’s population grew at a much slower rate, by just 0.9% over the period, to 828,124 – amounting to 7,244 more persons than in 2011.

Where is this growth occurring?

The Map below highlights the spatial distribution of population growth.


popchange

While most counties experienced some level of population growth just three counties, all in the Western Region, witnessed population decline over the five years, namely Donegal (-1.5%), Mayo (-0.2%) and Sligo (-0.1%).

From a Western Region perspective, the other four counties of the Western Region all recorded population increases over the period; Clare (+1.2%), Leitrim (+0.5%), Roscommon (+0.6%), Galway county (+2.2%), Galway city (5.3%).

It is clear from the map that the particularly high growth rates, in excess of 4% are all, apart from Cork and Longford, occurring on the East coast.

Aspects of Population Change

Net migration and natural increases are the two components of population change.

Migration

Migration, especially in an Irish context can vary a lot and is heavily influenced by the rate of economic growth. Nationally net migration over the past 5 years is estimated at -28,558. This compares with net inward migration of 115,800 over the previous five years from 2006-2011.

The migration figures include international migration as well as migration within Ireland. It is clear that a key driver for migratory flows is employment opportunity. As the map below illustrates, most counties – coloured red and orange, experienced net outward migration. Dublin and Cork city along with Kilkenny, Laois and Longford experienced net inward migration. It is most significant in parts of Dublin. All other counties experienced net outward migration and this is particularly stark on the West coast, in Donegal (-6,731), Mayo (-3,246), Galway (-3,168) and Limerick.

Net migration by county 11-16

Natural Increase

The natural increase (births minus deaths) is the other component of population growth or decline. While natural increases are evident across the country, it ranges from an annual average rate of 3.3 per 1,000 in Cork city to a rate of 15 per 1,000 in Fingal. This range is evident in the chart below.

From a Western Region perspective, all counties except Galway city have an annual average rate less than the state average which is 8.5 (on the chart between Offaly and Westmeath).

natural increase by county

So what are the policy implications?

There are many implications across a whole range of policy areas. The greater detail which will be available from the detailed Census outputs later in the year will help inform specific policy areas.

It is clear that, so far, the preliminary results from Census 2016 highlight the need for a new spatial plan which can help direct where population and economic growth should occur. Economic and population growth need to be supported to ensure optimum growth across all regions.

Deirdre Frost

Call for Papers: Annual Conference of RSA-Irish Branch in partnership with WDC & NUI Galway

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The WDC is delighted to be partnering with the Regional Studies Association (RSA) Irish branch and NUI Galway for this year’s RSA Annual Conference.  It will take place on Friday 9 September at NUI Galway.

This year’s theme is Planning for Regional Development: The National Planning Framework as a Roadmap for Ireland’s Future?

As the process of developing a new National Planning Framework – to replace the National Spatial Strategy – seems to be gathering pace after the hiatus caused by the election, it seems appropriate to focus on the NPF at this year’s conference.  The approach taken to the NPF and the closely linked Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies, should have significant impacts on the future spatial pattern of development in Ireland.  How much of an impact will very much depend on the implementation systems that are put in place.

The conference will examine best international practice in spatial planning and consider what should be at the heart of Irish regional development and planning policy.  It will ask what vision for Ireland should underpin local, regional and national development over the next 30 years.

WDC_LOGO NUI_Galway_LOGO

 

 

 

Call for Papers:

A call for papers is now open. We are seeking presentations from policymakers, academia and practitioners active in the field of regional studies.  Post-graduate students are encouraged to submit.

Potential themes for presentations include:

  • The new National Planning Framework
  • One island, two jurisdictions
  • Visioning Ireland
  • The NPF and Governance
  • The NPF and Housing
  • Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies
  • Local and regional economic forums
  • New approaches to regional development
  • International comparator cases

Other contributions dealing with the topic of regional studies are invited and will be included in focussed sessions.

Submissions:

Proposals for presentations (in the form of a 250 word abstract) should be submitted through the Regional Studies Association – Irish Branch online portal by 31st July 2016. Submissions should be forwarded to chris.vanegeraat@nuim.ie

Further details on the conference will be updated on the Regional Studies Association, Irish Branch website

Strong jobs growth in manufacturing but decline in market services in Western Region

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Between 2012 and 2015 employment in market services sectors declined in the Western Region, but grew in the rest of the country.  This is the main reason for slower jobs recovery in the Western Region, where employment grew by 2.8% compared with 6.3% in the rest of the state during that period.  That’s according to a new Western Development Commission (WDC) publication ‘Impact of Sectors on Western Region’s Jobs Recovery’.

Market services are businesses which supply services to consumers or other businesses.  During 2012-2015, jobs in Administration and Other Services (-11.4%), Locally Traded Services (retail, hospitality, transport) (-7.5%) and Knowledge Services (finance, ICT, professional services) (-7.3%) all declined in the Western Region.  This was during a period of recovery in these sectors nationally.

‘Many of these businesses rely on consumer spending.  Lower incomes in the region than in much of the rest of the state is one of the challenges they face.  The decline in Locally Traded Services has also contributed to the region’s higher youth unemployment rate of 30.8% compared with 20% in the rest of the state.  These are areas where young people often find work,’ according to Paddy McGuinness, Chairperson of the WDC.

‘Job declines in high-value, knowledge services such as ICT, which are seen as key to future growth, is a particular concern.  Improving the region’s capacity to attract and grow knowledge services activities must be central to jobs and enterprise strategies,’ he added.

On a positive note, the region’s manufacturing sector is performing strongly.  Employing 50,000 people, Industry is the single largest employer in the Western Region.  It is also more important to regional employment, accounting for 15.6% of all jobs compared with 12.2% in the rest of the state.  Over the three years 2012-2015 industrial employment in the Western Region grew by 8.3%, more than twice the growth in the rest of the state (3.4%).

‘Our manufacturing base is a core strength for the Western Region.  It is critical that we build on this strength and maintain our competitiveness as a location for globally trading Irish and foreign-owned companies, offering a highly skilled workforce, top class infrastructure and responsive higher education institutions,’ concluded Mr. McGuinness.

Similar to the rest of the state, Agriculture (+32%) and Construction (+18.2%) saw the largest increases in job numbers, driven by strong agri-food exports and a resurgence in building activity.

Download the two-page WDC Insights publication ‘Impact of Sectors on Western Region’s Jobs Recovery’ here

 

Notes to Editor:

All data taken from a special run of the CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 1 2012-2015 for the seven county Western Region.

The Western Development Commission (WDC) (wdc.ie) is the statutory body promoting economic and social development in the Western Region (counties Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon, Mayo, Galway and Clare). Its strategic goals are:

  • To inform policy-making on economic and social development in the Western Region through high quality analysis.
  • To promote the benefits of living, working and doing business in the Western Region.
  • To encourage the development of the rural economy based on the sustainable development of the Western Region’s strengths and resources.
  • To provide risk capital to micro, small and medium sized and social enterprises in their start-up and expansion phases through the WDC Investment Fund (WIF).

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The West in 1916

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For the week that’s in it, we thought we’d turn our attention to 1916.  The CSO recently launched a very interesting resource that’s well worth investigating Life in 1916 Ireland: Stories from statistics that highlights just how much life has changed over the past century.

A lot of the data is for Ireland as a whole, but there’s county information on many topics.  Understandably much of the analysis focuses on living conditions for people in Dublin city at the time of the 1916 Rising, especially those living in the tenements, but some very interesting patterns for the West also emerge.

Shift in population

The past century has seen a fundamental shift in Ireland’s population towards the East coast, with Leinster’s population more than doubling (up 116%).  Munster meanwhile had a 20% increase.  In contrast, both Connacht and the counties of Ulster in the Republic both experienced an 11% fall in their population over the past 100 years.

At a county level, all counties of the Western Region, except Galway and Clare, had a fall in population ranging from -50% in Leitrim to -4% in Donegal (Fig. 1). Within the region, the population tended to shift southwards.

Map of population change in Ireland, 1911-2011

Fig. 1: Change in population by county, 1911-2011. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/people/population/#d.en.94294

Housing conditions

There were 176,659 housing units in the Western Region in 1911. There was a 69% increase over the following century, but this increase is dwarfed by the 222% increase in housing units in the Rest of the State, clearly a consequence of the shifting population patterns.

The region was also characterised by fewer ‘big houses’ with less than 5% of all houses having 10 rooms or more compared with 11.5% in the Rest of the State.  Mayo, Leitrim and Roscommon had the lowest shares of large houses.

At the other end of the scale, there were 10,080 one room dwellings in the Western Region in 1911. If we specifically consider one room dwellings which housed three or more people (Fig. 2), the impact of Dublin’s tenements is clear. Over half of one room dwellings in the city had three or more people.

For the Western Region it was quite a mixed picture with the large rural counties of Donegal and Mayo having the next highest shares after Dublin, while Roscommon and Leitrim had among the lowest.  Birth rates were a key factor here, as Roscommon (18.1 per 1,000 population) and Leitrim (19.2) had some of the lowest birth rates in the country in 1916, while Mayo (21.8) and Donegal (21.2) had among the highest.

Fig. 2: Percentage of one room dwellings with three or more people by county, 1911. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Fig. 2: Percentage of one room dwellings with three or more people by county, 1911. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Seasonal Agricultural Work

The prevalence of large numbers living in one room dwellings in Donegal and Mayo could be linked to the phenomenon of seasonal agricultural workers which was strongest in these counties. In 1914, approximately 13,000 people migrated to Britain for seasonal agricultural work.  The county of origin for 7,246 of these migrants is known and Mayo and Donegal accounted for over 80% of the migrants (4,282 and 1,640 respectively).  As these workers would be absent from the home for long periods, the actual number of people living in some of these one room dwellings during these periods would have been lower.

The CSO quotes the Department of Agriculture & Technical Instruction reporting that labourers “…save usually from half to three-quarters of their earnings, and some return home with as much as £20 saved in the season.” This report also noted that 97% of migrants from Donegal went to Scotland while 93% of the migrants from Mayo went to England and Wales.

Literacy

This pattern of seasonal agricultural work was also likely a factor in these counties having the highest rates of illiteracy in the country with Donegal (16.8%), Galway (15.3%) and Mayo (14.6%) having the highest (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: Percentage of population by literacy level by county, 1911 (note: there were a considerable number of persons where this information was missing). Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Fig. 3: Percentage of population by literacy level by county, 1911 (note: there were a considerable number of persons where this information was missing). Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Infant Mortality

While the West may have had higher illiteracy rates, one area where it performed well was in infant mortality.  Ireland’s infant mortality rate in 1916 was 81.3 i.e., for every 1,000 babies born during 1916, 81 died before they reached twelve months of age. The infant mortality rate was truly shocking in Dublin City at 153.5, followed by Dublin County at 102.2 and Limerick at 101.1 (Fig. 4).

Counties in the Western Region had the lowest rates of infant mortality with a rate of 34.6 in Roscommon, 45.9 in Leitrim and 51.4 in Mayo. The CSO notes it is likely that higher population densities in urban areas (such as in the tenements in Dublin City) contributed to the spread of diseases. While poverty was widespread in both urban and rural areas, there would have been greater access to fresh air and better quality food in rural areas.

Fig. 4: Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) by county, 1916. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/births/#d.en.97677

Fig. 4: Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) by county, 1916. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/births/#d.en.97677

While we’ve highlighted some of the most striking figures showing what life was like in the West in 1916, there’s a lot more you can discover in this fascinating resource.

Pauline White

Uneven regional impact of Ireland’s jobs recovery

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There was a lot of discussion of the jobs recovery during the election campaign. In fact ‘Jobs’ was consistently ranked No. 2 in Google searches related to the Irish election this year (just behind Taxes). And much of the discussion was about where those jobs were being created.

The results of this year’s Census will give a great opportunity to really interrogate the spatial patterns of Ireland’s recent jobs performance and what has happened since 2011, especially to consider how any recovery has benefitted rural areas, villages, small towns, disadvantaged urban areas etc. However those results will not be available until 2017 so in the meantime we need to rely on survey based data, which is limited in its availability at regional or county level.

As the labour market is extremely complex, it’s difficult to fully capture that complexity, especially at smaller spatial scales where a single employer or event can have a major impact. In this blog post therefore I’ve taken a very broad look at regional job trends to try to provide a snapshot of what’s happening. The latest available regional employment data was published last week (CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 4 2015) and is used here.

Percentage change in employment 2006-2010 and 2011-2015

Fig. 1 shows the percentage change in the number of people at work in each of the NUTS3 regions. It compares two five-year periods, the crisis (Q4 2006 – Q4 2010) and the recovery (Q4 2011 – Q4 2015). As we know, during the crisis the South East, Midlands and Border were particularly hard hit by job losses. This included people who had been commuting from these regions into Dublin, many of whom had bought houses at the edges of the ever expanding Dublin commuter belt. Intimately linked to this, these regions also had a high reliance on the construction sector.

It was the Mid-East and West which had the smallest employment declines, the strength of Galway and its medical devices cluster is known to have contributed to this in the West. However, one of the most noticeable patterns in Fig. 1 is that the Mid-West and West do not seem to be benefitting from the jobs recovery, having employment decline in both periods. For a number of other regions, the growth they have experienced between 2011 and 2015 is less than their previous percentage decline. This is the case for the Border, South-East, South-West and Mid-East.  Only the Midlands has experienced stronger jobs growth than its earlier decline.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in employment by NUTS3 region, Q4 2006 – Q4 2010 and Q4 2011 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Fig. 1: Percentage change in employment by NUTS3 region, Q4 2006 – Q4 2010 and Q4 2011 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Regional employment trends 2006-2015

Fig. 2 shows the number of people in employment in each of the NUTS3 regions except Dublin (which is excluded due to scale) from 2006 to 2015. The South West, with 284,000 has the highest employment of the regions shown. The South-West shows a clear pattern of decline followed by gradual recovery, but in 2015 remains below its 2007 peak. The South-East, Border and Midlands follow a similar pattern as does the Mid-East though it did have a slight decline in 2015. The only region to regain its 2007 level of employment is the Midlands.

Again, the West and Mid-West stand out as having a different experience. While they had a similar decline from 2007, their employment trends do not show any real signs of recovery. For the Mid-West, employment has remained almost unchanged since 2012, while in the West it has declined notably since 2013.

Fig. 1: Employment by NUTS3 region (excluding Dublin), Q4 2006 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Fig. 1: Employment by NUTS3 region (excluding Dublin), Q4 2006 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

The reasons for the weak performance of the West and Mid-West would need to be further explored. In their 2015 end of year statement, Enterprise Ireland reported that the North-West, Mid-West and West had the lowest jobs growth in companies assisted by the agency, while the poor performance of the North-West region in total agency assisted employment since 2005 has been discussed in a previous blog. The Western Region clearly faces some very serious challenges in its ability to fully benefit from the national jobs recovery.

Others have also been examining the uneven regional distribution of jobs growth, such as PublicPolicy.ie. It is a topic that clearly must be a priority for the next Programme for Government and central to the development of the new National Planning Framework, which will have to be taken up by the new Government and Minister.

Pauline White