Covid 19 Pandemic Unemployment Payments in the Western Region

 

Continuing our analysis of the economic and social impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on the Western Region it is useful to look at the number in Western Region counties in receipt of the Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) today, 19th May.

The Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection has provided a county breakdown for the (PUP) payments , valued at €201.8m, just issued to 585,000 people (of which 252,800 are female and 331,800 are male).  The Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) is an emergency payment for employees and the self-employed who have lost their income and are fully unemployed due to the pandemic. It is paid at a rate of €350 per week into a recipient’s bank account.

While the PUP is the most significant payment, there are also over 54,000 employers who have registered with the Revenue Commissioners for the Temporary Covid-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) with at least one subsidy being paid in respect of over 464,000 people under that scheme (there is no county breakdown available for this).  These payments are in addition to the 214,700 people who were reported on the Live Register as of the end of April[1][2].

 

The Pandemic Unemployment Payment (PUP) in the Western Region

Of the 585,000 in receipt of the payment, 102,800 are in the Western Region.  This accounts for 17.6% of the national total while the Western Region accounted for 16.8% of the Labour Force in 2016 (the most recent data at this level).  The number in receipt of the PUP has fallen slightly (2.2%)  from 598,000 on 5th May (104,900 in the Western Region) as some recipients have begun to return to work and some employers have entered the TWSS.

Figure 1 shows the number of people in receipt of the PUP in the Western Region counties and in Kerry and Limerick, which, along with the Western Region counties, make up the Atlantic Economic Corridor (AEC).  In the Region, Galway (31,800) and Donegal (22,200) have the most people in receipt of the payment, with more than 20,000 people also receiving the payment in Kerry and Limerick.  Leitrim (4,000), Roscommon, (6,900) and Sligo (7,500), the smaller counties, have the lowest number of recipients (and the smallest numbers nationally, along with Longford (4,500) and Carlow (7,500)).

 

Figure 1: Number of people in receipt of Pandemic Unemployment Payment on 19th May in Western Region and AEC counties

Source: https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7fc9de-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/  Appendix 2

 

Clearly the most populous counties have the highest numbers of recipients so it is more useful to consider the percentage of the Labour Force in receipt of the payment.  The most recent available county data on the size of the Labour Force is from Census 2016, and although the national labour force has increased since then, the Census data is used here[3] to allow for a comparison of rates by county (Fig 2).

Nationally (using the 2016 denominator), 25% of the labour force were in receipt of the PUP, but 27% of those in the Western Region labour force were receiving it.  There is very significant variation among Western Region counties, with 31% of the labour force in Donegal in receipt of PUP but only 23% of those in Roscommon (the only Western Region county to be below the state average).  Looking at the other AEC counties, Limerick (24%) is also lower than the State but Kerry, like Donegal, is very high (31%).

 

Figure 2: Percentage of County Labour Force (2016) in receipt of Pandemic Unemployment Payment

Source: https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7fc9de-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/  Appendix 2 and  CSO, Census 2016 Summary Results – Part 2. Table EZ011

 

There is no county breakdown available for the Temporary Covid-19 Wage Subsidy Scheme (TWSS) which some unemployed workers receive instead of the PUP and so it is not clear what influence this would have on these figures.  The importance of different sectors for employment discussed in a previous blog, and in turn the different impact of Covid 19 public health measures on various sectors, all affect the level of PUP payments in each county.

 

Reliance on key sectors

The job losses have been largest in sectors where economic activity is difficult or impossible because of public health measures and social distancing guidelines (the recent Working Paper from the DEASP discusses sectors in more detail)   Three sectors, Accommodation and Food Services  (21.3%), Wholesale and Retail (15.0%) and Construction (13.1%) together account for almost half (49.4%) of all those in receipt of the PUP (Figure 3).

 

Figure 3: Pandemic Unemployment Payments – Sector Breakdown, Payment 19th May.

Source: https://www.gov.ie/en/news/7fc9de-update-on-payments-awarded-for-covid-19-pandemic-unemployment-paymen/  Appendix 2

 

This is in line with the most recent CSO Business Impact of COVID-19 Survey 20 April to 3 May 2020 (published 18th May) which shows that 69.1% of enterprises in Accommodation and Food services ceased trading, either temporarily or permanently while two thirds (66.7%) of responding enterprises in the Construction sector had ceased trading either temporarily or permanently as of 3 May 2020.

The Western Region is particularly reliant on these sectors (as shown in Census 2016) with 12.7% of total employment in 2016 in Wholesale and Retail and higher dependency on Accommodation and  Food Services in the Western Region (6.9%) and Construction (5.4%) than the rest of the state (5.6% in Accommodation and Food; 5.0% in Construction).

While the county data for the sectoral breakdown of the PUP is not available, Figure 4[4] is taken from the recent DEASP Working Paper (PDF 1.7MB) which shows the breakdown of the payments in each county for the week ending 17th April[5].  The importance of the Accommodation and Food Services sector in the Region, and along the Atlantic Economic Corridor, is clear.

 

Figure 4: Pandemic Unemployment Payment- Sectoral Breakdown by County

Source: DEASP Working Paper , May 2020 Figure 6 . Apologies for the poor quality. The key sector of Accom & Food is at the bottom (dark blue), Construction is large blue section in the middle and Wholesale & Retail is at the top (orange).

 

The Accommodation and Food sector is most important along the Western Seaboard , this takes in the five counties (Kerry, Sligo, Clare, Mayo and Galway) with the greatest proportion of those claiming the PUP in this sector. In Kerry almost 30% of those claiming the PUP were employed in Accommodation and Food services, along with more than a quarter of those claiming PUP in Sligo, Clare and Galway, and more than 20% in Donegal, Leitrim and Limerick.  Of the Western Region counties, only Roscommon had fewer than 20% of PUP claimants in that sector.  This is in line with its relatively low percentage in receipt of the PUP (Fig 2 above).

 

Conclusion

While there is variation in the impact of the Covid 19 among Western Region counties, the consequences for the Region as a whole are clearly significant.  As discussed previously  the pattern of employment in the Western Region compared to the rest of the state has both positive and negative aspects in this current crisis.  Higher dependence on Accommodation and Food services means more vulnerability but, in the short term, the greater reliance on public service employment can provide more stability and resilience.

As the ESRI noted, there was an almost total decline in certain types of economic activity from mid-March onwards.    With some working in Wholesale and Retail able to return to work this week (18th May), and more expected form the 8th June, we can expect some decrease in the numbers receiving the PUP in the next payment round but Accommodation and Food services such as cafes, restaurants and pubs will main closed longer.  As many outlets, particularly in the retail, food and hospitality sectors, simply stopped trading and in these key sectors remote working was generally not an option, it is not clear how many of these will be in a position to resume trading when the shutdown period ends.

This series of posts brings together new data and previous WDC analyses and examines them from the perspective of the possible impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on the regional economy.  The posts aim to develop our understanding of what may be happening at a regional level and what will need to be done in the later phases of the public health emergency and beyond, but they are early interpretations and should be viewed as a work in progress rather than a definitive commentary.

 

Helen McHenry

 

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of the WDC

 

[1] Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection  Update on Payments Awarded for Covid-19 Pandemic Unemployment Payment and Enhanced Illness Benefit

[2] Covid-19 Enhanced Illness Benefit is also payable and of the 44,600 people medically certified for receipt 6,900 (15.5%) are in Western Region counties. This payment predominantly relates to applications in respect of people who have been advised by their GP to self-isolate together with a smaller number in respect of people who have been diagnosed with Covid-19.

[3] The Labour Force in the State in Census 2016 was 2, 304,037, while the most recent estimates of the labour force, in Q4 2019 from the Labour Force Survey, was 2,471,700, an increase of 167,663 or 7.3%.

[4] Figure 6 in the DEASP Working Paper

[5] Data on county sectors provisional and subject to revision

Working from Home – What are the Regional Patterns?

Introduction

In a recent blogpost I examined the data on working from home and the trends that have occurred up to the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. The data over the last two decades suggest that there may be a correlation between economic growth, unemployment levels and the numbers working from home. So, for example, as the unemployment rate declined the percentage engaged in working from home increased. When unemployment was at its lowest, in 2019 at 5%, the percentage working from home was at its highest at approximately 20% nationally, see here.

In this blogpost I examine previously unpublished data to see if there are regional differences. Are there regional patterns? Are there different levels of working from home in more urban or rural regions or those regions considered ‘commuter regions’ such as the Mid-East?

Labour Force Survey: Working Sometimes or Usually from Home

The CSO Labour Force Survey asks how often did you work at home. If the response is that you worked for at least one hour from home in the last four weeks then it is categorised as ‘sometimes works from home’. If the respondent reports that ‘At least half of the days worked at home’, then the response is categorised ‘as usually works from home’.

Examining both these groups to capture all those who work from home; nationally over a fifth of the population (21.5%), report sometimes or usually works from home. These data include all sectors (including Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing). Note the data reported in the previous blogpost see here, reported a slightly lower working from home rate of 20%, but this excluded the Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing sector[1].

In 2019, all regions report greater levels of working from home than in 2012, see Table 1 below. In 2019, two regions have levels above the national average (Dublin and the West region), both at 23.9%. This is followed by the Mid-East region (21.4%), followed by the South-East and South West regions, both with 20% working sometimes or usually from home. The regions with the lowest rates in 2019 are the Midland region (19.1%) and the Border region (17.3%).

As noted in the previous blog post, the trend in the national rate had been downward from 2012 through to 2014 with an upward trend in the latter half of the period to 2019, coinciding with rising employment levels and reduced unemployment. This pattern is also generally evident across most regions with the exception of the Midland region which has experienced a continuous upward trend.

Geographic Differences between Sometimes and Usually working from Home

Combining the categories of ‘sometimes’ and ‘usually’ working from home captures all those working from home but a closer look at the data highlights important differences. The chart below depicts those who sometimes and those who usually work from home in 2019 by region. It is clear that there are regional differences. It is also clear that there is a different regional pattern when examining the separate categories of usually and sometimes working from home.

So for example, those regions with the highest rate of sometimes working from home such as Dublin and the Mid-East are those regions with the lowest rate who usually work from home. Conversely those regions with some of the highest rates working usually from home (the Border and Midlands regions) are those regions with the lower rates of usually working from home. The West region is somewhat of an exception here with relatively high rates of both usually and sometimes working from home.

Examining the separate groups in more detail, it is worth repeating the definitions;

  • those who usually work from home are those who report having worked ‘At least half of the days worked at home’.
  • those categorised as sometimes works from home are those who have worked for ‘at least one hour from home in the last four weeks’.

Usually working from home

It is likely that those who usually work from home include those engaged in Agriculture and others who are self-employed and largely home based, for example home-based sole traders and self-employed such as GPs, childminders and construction workers. Previous work by the WDC Policy team have noted the relatively high rates of self-employment in more rural areas. A blogpost on Census data, see here notes the very strong spatial pattern to self-employment with the most rural counties having higher rates than the state average of 15.6%. For example, five of the Western Region counties are in the top ten nationally in terms of share of self-employment, Leitrim (20.3%), Roscommon (19.9%), Mayo (19.6%), Galway county (19.5%) and Clare (19.5%) all having in excess of or close to 1 in 5 of their workers self-employed.

As that analysis notes, the strong spatial pattern of self-employment in Ireland is related to many factors but notably the sectoral and occupational pattern of employment. Apart from Agriculture and Construction, the relative lack of alternative employment opportunities, especially in the more remote rural areas, means that more people choose (or are necessitated) to turn to self-employment. Table 2 below shows the percentage of employment by region, usually working at home over the period 2012-2019.

The data certainly supports the rural/urban pattern with higher rates of those usually working from home in the more rural regions, such as the Border and West regions, while the more urban region of Dublin has the lowest rate of 6.4% in 2019.

The trend nationally has also shown a decline from 2012 to 2016 with an increase thereafter. This suggests that there is also some relationship with higher employment levels and low unemployment rates in 2019. This trend is also clear across every region, albeit with different levels in each, see table 2 above.

Sometimes working from home

Those categorised as sometimes working from home are those who have worked for at least one hour from home in the last four weeks. In 2019 the national average was 13.3%, with Dublin, the Mid-East and West regions having higher than average rates. The lowest rates are in the Border and Midland regions. This suggests that both opportunity (employers who are receptive to remote working) and traffic congestion/ commuting are factors influencing the rate of those sometimes working from home.

The levels of those working sometimes from home (Table 3) is somewhat higher than those working usually from home (Table 2). This is unsurprising as other data suggest that working from home is most common on a one or two-day week basis. For example, the CSO conducted a pilot survey in September 2018 see here. This found that among those at work, 18% declared they worked from home. Working from home 1 day per week was the most popular practice (35%), followed by 2 days a week (13%) and 5 days per week (by 11%).

Data on the impact of Covid-19 and Future Outlook

The most recent CSO data on working from home measuring the current situation due to the Covid-19 crisis, (data only at a national level) shows that, over two-thirds (69.0%) of enterprises indicated that they implemented remote working over the five-week period from 16 March to 19 April 2020. Almost three in every ten businesses (29.0%) had the majority of their workforce working remotely during that period, see here for full release. The practice of enforced home working is likely to change the overall levels of working from home, with huge sections of the workforce experiencing it for the first time.

So, if there is a correlation between economic growth, employment levels and the numbers working sometimes from home, what might happen once we emerge from the Covid crisis?  One of the factors seems to be that with a tight labour market, and high employment levels, there are greater levels of working from home. More employees seek the opportunity of working from home especially given the longer journey times associated with full employment and congested transport networks. It is also argued that employers are more receptive to the practice in part related to the need to retain skilled workers.

However, following the crisis, the unemployment rate is likely to be much higher than pre-crisis levels. How will this impact on the demand for home working? At a sectoral and regional level, if the sectoral patterns of employment are a factor in the rates of those usually working from home, what will the patterns be when we emerge from the pandemic? In future blogposts the WDC will continue to monitor trends and highlight issues as they emerge.

 

Deirdre Frost

May 2020

 

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of the WDC.

[1] In this special run, it was not possible to provide a sectoral breakdown and examine regional data due to sample size.

 

Business Sectors and Employment in the Western Region: Exploring some potential impacts of the Covid 19 shock

While the detail and scale of the consequences of the Covid-19 containment measures are not yet clear, it is useful to consider, using available data, how the Western Region might be impacted.  There are many unknowns including in relation to the duration of the public health emergency and the speed and extent to which jobs will return once restrictions are lifted.

In this short series of blog posts I look at some of the WDC’s previous analyses[1] of our regional economy and society from the perspective of the potential impacts of Covid 19, so that we can begin to consider areas of priority for support and stimulation when opportunities again become available.  The first post in the series examined sectoral employment data from the perspective of the current economic shock, highlighted key areas of employment in the region and some potential implications of the crisis.

In this post, business demography data on enterprises, and those engaged in these in the Western Region, is examined from the perspective of the current economic shock, highlighting areas of potential vulnerability in relation to enterprises and the people they employ.  The data is from the CSO’s 2017 Business Demography report published last year[2].  This is the most recently available data.

 

Potential economic consequences of the containment measures.

As the Central Bank [3] and others have noted, the economic shock triggered by responses to Covid 19 has resulted in the widespread shutdown of businesses, mainly in the market services sectors of the economy with labour-intensive sectors, such as retail trade, food and beverage activities and accommodation, tourism and travel particularly affected.  These, as is discussed below, are key business and employment sectors in the Western Region.

The widespread restrictions on travel and mobility, along with financial market turmoil, have led to an erosion of confidence and heighted uncertainty[4] which in turn has led to a sharp contractions in the level of output, household spending, corporate investment and international trade.  The OECD notes that within service sectors, activities involving travel, including tourism, and direct contact between consumers and service providers, such as hairdressers or house purchases, are clearly adversely affected by restrictions on movement and social distancing.  Similarly, most retailers, restaurants and cinemas have also closed, although takeaway sales and on-line sales may prevent a full cessation of activity in some businesses.  Non-essential construction work is also being adversely affected.  The OECD assessment estimated that, taken together, the affected sectors account for between 30-40 per cent of total output in most economies.  They estimated that the potential initial impact on activity of partial or complete shutdowns on activity in Ireland would be just over 15% (over a number of years), which is the the least affected of the selected advanced and emerging market economies analysed.

More recently the Stability Programme Update prepared by the Department of Finance outlines that as the economic landscape has fundamentally changed in Ireland and across the globe, Irish GDP could fall by 10.5 per cent this year and Modified Domestic Demand, perhaps the best indicator of domestic economic conditions, is projected to fall by 15 per cent this year.  The labour market will the brunt of the economic shock, going from full employment to a peak unemployment rate of 22% in the current quarter, with annual unemployment rate in 2020 projected to be in the region of 14%.  If recovery in second half of year gains momentum, next year with economic growth is projected to be 6 per cent, and numbers out of work to fall below 10 per cent.  The Update notes that recovery over the second half of 2020 rests on successful virus containment and stresses that the level of uncertainly is such that the projections in the should be considered a scenario rather than a forecast as such.

 

What are key business areas in the Western Region?

Against the background of these economic projections it is useful to examine the type and scale of enterprises in the Western Region, those engaged in these in the Western Region and the sectors the businesses operate in.

The latest CSO Business Demography data on enterprises in the Western Region (2017) shows there were 57,951 enterprises[5] registered in the seven-county Western Region (location of an enterprise is based on its address as registered with Revenue[6]).  In total, more than a quarter of a million people were working for enterprises registered in the region (255,261).

Of all enterprises registered in the Western Region 92.9% were micro-businesses employing fewer than 10 people. This was a slightly higher share than nationally (92.1%). As each micro-enterprise is small in scale however, despite their accounting for 92.9% of enterprises, only 35.8% of those who work for an enterprise, works for a micro-enterprise.  Of course, direct employment is just one of the economic and social impacts of micro-enterprises and they play a particularly vital role in smaller centres and more rural areas, as well as in particular sectors e.g. Construction, Professional Services.

By their nature, larger firms (employing 10 or more people) play a more significant employment role, accounting for 64.2% of everyone who works for an enterprise, despite only accounting for 7.1% of firms.

In terms of the number of enterprises, Construction is the largest sector in the Western Region accounting for 20.4% of active enterprises registered in the region.  Wholesale & Retail (15%) and Professional, Scientific & Technical activities (9.4%) are next largest (see Fig 1 below).  They are also the four sectors (including Accommodation and Food Service (7.8%)) nationally with the most enterprises  but greater concentration in the Western Region is evident with the top three enterprise sectors accounting for 52.6% of enterprises in the Western Region and 49.8% in the State as a whole.  These top sectors, in terms of business numbers include many sole traders and micro-enterprises e.g. construction trades, solicitors, architects, small shops, B&Bs and restaurants and cafes.

 

Figure 1: Percentage of enterprises in each sector in 2017, in the Western Region and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

The picture is different when we look at the number of people engaged in enterprises (Fig. 2)[7], and this is key to understanding the consequences of the current crisis.  Wholesale & Retail is the largest enterprise sector in employment terms (17.8% of all people working in enterprises in the Western Region) followed by Industry (17.2%) which is mainly Manufacturing, and Accommodation & Food Service (13.4%).  These three sectors include many larger businesses e.g. factories, hotels, large retail stores, so account for a greater share of employment than of enterprises.

The Western Region is more reliant on more vulnerable sectors for employment than the rest of the state although there is variation within sectors.  For example, the extent to which the ‘Industry’ sector will be affected is not clear.  The strong med tech sector in parts of the Region may provide some stability in this area.  Likewise, parts of wholesale and retail (food supply) are performing well while other retail trade has ceased.  Nonetheless, as the ESRI noted, many outlets particularly in the retail and hospitality sectors have simply stopped trading, while the fall in consumption and restrictions on international and domestic travel also mean that tourism (Accommodation and Food Service) is likely to collapse over the quarter[8].

The fourth most important sector in terms of employment both in the Western Region and nationally is Health and Social care which will also provide some stability.

 

Figure 2: Percentage of people engaged in enterprises in each sector in 2017, in the Western Region and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

Concentration is more evident in relation to employment with the top four sectors nationally employing just over 50% of those working in enterprises, but they account for more than 60% of employment in the Western Region (and just over 66% in Sligo and almost 64% in Mayo).

Enterprise and employment in enterprise in Western Region counties

There will be variations in the impact of the response to Covid 19 across the Western Region counties, reflecting differences in the composition of enterprise, employment and output.  For example, where tourism or non food retail is relatively important these areas will potentially be affected more severely by shutdowns and limitations on travel.  In contrast, counties with strong med tech industry, greater reliance on agriculture (not covered by this data) or significant food retail may experience smaller initial effects from containment measures.

Looking at the key sectors in terms of enterprise numbers (Fig 3) in the Western Region counties shows Construction, Wholesale and Retail and Professional and Technical services have most enterprises in all Western Region counties and nationally.  As mentioned before, this is in part because of the prevalence of sole traders and very small business in these sectors.  As only essential construction is currently allowed to continue, and most retail (aside from food) is also closed, these businesses are experiencing the immediate shock of the restrictions from the pandemic, and are also likely to suffer from a fall in demand which will follow rising unemployment.  There is also likely to be a fall in demand for many Profession and Technical services in future, but at present a significant proportion of these jobs may be done remotely from home.

 

Figure 3: Percentage of enterprises in key sectors in 2017, in Western Region counties and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

Looking at top sectors for those engaged in enterprises, the importance of the most vulnerable sectors (Wholesale and Retail and Accommodation and Food Service) is clear.  They are in the top four (see Fig 4) in all Western Region counties (and nationally).  While for most western counties Wholesale & Retail, Industry and Accommodation & Food Service are the three largest enterprise sectors for employment, for Galway and Roscommon, Health & Care is in the third biggest employer in the enterprises being examined.

 

Figure 4: Percentage engaged in enterprises in key sectors in 2017, in Western Region counties and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

Industry is the most important sector for employment in Sligo (28.3%) and Clare (18.8%), with Wholesale and Retail particularly important in Mayo (22%) and Roscommon (22%).  Accommodation and Food service is particularly important in Donegal (15.9%) and Leitrim (14.3%).  The Health and Social Care sector may provide some stability especially in counties where it is relatively important (Roscommon (15%) and Galway (13.7%).

 

Conclusion

As the Central Bank noted, when it emerges the pace of recovery is likely to depend on factors such as the extent to which households and firms have been scarred by the downturn, the degree to which precautionary behaviour unwinds, the recovery in employment and incomes and, possibly also, the degree of stimulus in place to provide some impetus to recovery.

Clearly micro-enterprises, which play a very significant role in the Western Region’s enterprise base, are likely to have fewer reserves making them more vulnerable to the cessation of trading.  While enterprises in the Region were hit very hard during the previous recession, there had been recovery, accelerating in recent years. It is to be hoped that recovery in the Region following this crisis will be quicker than that which followed the financial crash.

While there will be some variation in the impact of the Covid 19 restrictions in Western Region counties, the consequences for the Region will be significant.  As the ESRI noted, there has been an almost total decline in certain types of economic activity from mid-March onwards. Many outlets particularly in the retail, food and hospitality sectors have simply stopped trading and in these key sectors remote working is generally not an option.  It is not clear how many of these will be in a position to resume trading when the shutdown period has ended but it is likely that some of these enterprises will not reopen.

Enterprises form the backbone of the local and regional economy.  Supporting the establishment and growth of sustainable enterprises across the Western Region is a key priority for the WDC and we hope that this analysis of enterprise data will help to inform ourselves and other organisations, individuals and policy makers about enterprise patterns in the Region.

This series of posts brings together previous WDC analyses and examines them from the perspective of the possible impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on the economy.  In the next post on the topic I will look at what we know about regional sectoral output and how it might be affected.  The posts aim to develop our understanding of what may be happening at a regional level and what will need to be done after the public health emergency, but they are early interpretations and should be viewed as a work in progress rather than a definitive commentary.

 

Helen McHenry

 

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of the WDC.

 

If you are interested in more detailed analysis of the Business Demography data (carried out in 2019), a comprehensive ‘Profile of Enterprise in …’ document is also available for each Western Region county. Each 12-page Profile includes data on:

  • Enterprise Trends 2008-2017: Active Enterprises and Persons Engaged
  • Employees as a % of Persons Engaged 2008-2017
  • Enterprises, Persons Engaged and Employees by Enterprise Size 2017
  • Change in Enterprises and Persons Engaged by Enterprise Size 2008-2017
  • Active Enterprises by Sector in 2017 and Change 2015-2017
  • Persons Engaged by Sector in 2017 and Change 2015-2017
  • Employees as a % of Persons Engaged by Sector 2017

Download the ‘Profile of Enterprise in …’ CLARE, DONEGAL, GALWAY, LEITRIM, MAYO, ROSCOMMON and SLIGOKey Statistics’ for each Western Region county (one page) is also available for download from the WDC.

If you are interested in reading more about the economic impacts of Covid 19 and government responses the ESRI scenario for the rest of the year is here.  The OECD has updated their report Covid-19: SME Policy Responses and has published an Evaluation of the initial impact of COVID-19 containment measures on economic activity.  The Department of Finance published its projections for key indicators in the Stability Programme Update.

[1] Thanks to my former colleague Pauline White for her original data analysis.

[2] https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/bd/businessdemography2017/

[3] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2020/quarterly-bulletin—q2-2020.pdf

[4] https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=126_126496-evgsi2gmqj&title=Evaluating_the_initial_impact_of_COVID-19_containment_measures_on_economic_activity

[5] ‘Total Enterprises’ includes all economic sectors except Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Public Administration & Defence, Households as Employers and Extraterritorial Organisations(that is NACE Rev 2 sectors B to N(-642) and P-S).  in the discussion and the charts some of the sector titles have been abbreviated.

[6] The geographical breakdown for enterprises is an approximation. The county breakdown is based on the address at which an enterprise is registered for Revenue purposes, rather than where the business actually operates from.  In particular, where an enterprise has local units in several counties (e.g. a supermarket chain), but one head office where all employment is registered, all its employees are counted against the county where the head office is located.

[7] People ‘engaged’ in enterprises which included both those owning and operating the business as well as those employed by it.  In this post the term employed covers all those engaged in the enterprise.

[8]  Quarterly Economic Commentary Spring 2020

Exploring some potential impacts of the Covid 19 shock on the Western Region – revisiting sectoral employment patterns

The Corona virus pandemic and consequent shutdown is bringing, and will bring, a massive economic shock globally, nationally and regionally, but the detail and scale of the consequences are not yet clear.  There are many unknowns including in relation to its duration, and the speed and extent to which jobs will return once restrictions are lifted.  Nonetheless, it is useful to consider, using available data, how the Western Region may be impacted.

In this short series of blog posts I look at some of our previous analyses of our regional economy and society from the perspective of the potential impacts of Covid 19, so that we can begin to consider areas of priority for support and for stimulation when opportunities once again become available.

Please note that this post was originally published on 30th March, and is being republished now but has not been updated.  The data remains the most recent available and there will be discussion of more recently published analyses of the potential economic, employment and sectoral impacts of Covid 19 in future posts.

An overview of potential national impacts

The Quarterly Economic Commentary  (QEC) recently published by the ESRI (26.03.20) notes that authorities response to the spread of the virus, while absolutely necessary from a general health perspective, will result in millions of jobs being lost globally in the coming weeks and months and a sharp contraction in global economic activity.  They highlight that the swiftness of the economic deterioration is unprecedented in modern times and in many respects exceeds that of the financial crisis[1] (pg 1).

The ESRI examined the impact of the current restrictions on economic life with the assumption that the restrictions are in place over a period of 12 weeks. Under such a scenario the domestic economy would contract by 7.1 per cent and national unemployment increase significantly from 4.8 per cent in February to 18 per cent in Q2 2020 before falling back to just under 11 per cent by the end of the year (pg 2).

In this post I revisit some of the sectoral employment analysis carried out by the WDC insights team in the last few years from the perspective of the current economic shock, highlighting key areas of employment in the region and some potential implications of the crisis.  The data is from Census 2016, collected almost four years ago and while there will have been changes since, it still gives a good picture of sectoral employment patterns in the Western Region.

 

Employment in high level sectors

Differences between the Western Region counties and the Rest of the State[2] in sectoral employment is shown in Figure 1.  In order to make the chart easier to read, some sectors have been grouped together to create these ‘high level sectors’ which give a useful overview of employment characteristics (see foot note for detail of what is included in each high level sector.[3]).

 

Figure 1: Percentage in total employment by high level sector in seven western counties, Western Region and the Rest of State

CSO, Census 2016 Summary Results – Part 2. Table EZ011.  A table is also provided at the end of the post.

Public Services is the largest source of employment in all western counties. It ranges from 32.6% of all jobs in Sligo to 24.6% in Clare.  Public Services includes Health, Education, and Public Administration.[4]  Counties Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon and Donegal are the four counties in the State with the highest shares of their population employed in Public Services.  In the short term these public sector jobs will provide some employment stability, though employment in the childcare sector, which is included here, has been devastated.

The next largest employment sector in all western counties is Locally Traded Services which includes the three sectors Wholesale & Retail, Accommodation & Food Service, and Transport & Storage.  These sectors are being very significantly affected by the shutdown and may face particular difficulties recovering.

The Western Region is weaker in Knowledge Intensive Services than the rest of the state.  While there will be significant variation, many Knowledge Intensive services (Financial, Insurance & Real Estate, Information & Communications, and Professional, Scientific & Technical activities ) lend themselves to remote working and so employment may be able to continue in this sector during the shutdown.

Industry (largely manufacturing) is the third largest employment sector (see more discussion below).  15.8% of all jobs in Galway are in Industry, with Donegal having the second lowest share (9.2%) nationally.

The relative importance of different sectors varies in the seven western counties, though Public and Locally Traded services are the two largest employers in all.  The dominant role of Public Services in the counties of the northwest shows the relative weakness of private sector activity in the area.  Worryingly, five of the six worst performing counties in terms of employment growth between 2011 and 2016 (the period of recovery from the financial crash), are located in the Western Region.  This vividly illustrates the job creation challenge still faced by the region and the importance of maintaining as many jobs as possible in the next few months.

In terms of the more immediate consequences of the Covid 19 shutdown, the high dependency on public service employment should provide more stable employment in the region in the short term but the lower level of employment in Knowledge Intensive services may make a return to economic growth more difficult.  Some manufacturing, particularly in the medical device sector, may be well placed to benefit from the crisis.

There is more detailed discussion on sectoral employment pattern in Western Region counties in this WDC Insights post.

 

Detailed sectors Western Region and Rest of State

Combining sectors allowed us to see consider the county data more easily.  However, it is important to look at employment in more detailed sectors and their importance in the Western Region to get a better understanding of potential employment consequences.  The two long established patterns of greater concentration of employment (with more employment in fewer sectors) and more reliance on traditional and public service sectors in the Western Region are still evident in 2016 (Fig. 2).

 

Figure 2: Percentage of total employment in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of State, 2016

CSO, Census 2016 Summary Results – Part 2. Table EZ011

 

The Western Region’s jobs profile relies more on traditional sectors and public services.  Industry’s share of total employment in the Western Region (13.7%) is considerably higher than in the rest of the state (11%). Manufacturing has consistently played a greater role in the Western Region’s jobs market and this intensified between 2011 and 2016.   The region’s Industry sector has performed very strongly. The high-tech medical devices cluster is a major influence, employing 28% of everyone working in Industry in the region and growing by 30% since 2011.  While many of the jobs in this medical devices sector may be maintained throughout the shutdown, and indeed there is some expansion in response to the crisis, other industrial jobs are more vulnerable.

Agriculture, Health, Education are other sectors that are more important in the region than elsewhere and are ones which are, in the short term at least, less likely to be affected by the shutdown (with the exception of childcare, which is included here).  In contrast, Accommodation & Food service which accounted for almost 7% of employment in the region is likely to lose almost all employment in the short term.

The Knowledge Intensive Services sectors of Financial, Insurance & Real Estate, Information & Communications, and Professional, Scientific & Technical activities are all considerably larger employers elsewhere. Combined, they employ 9.7% of workers in the Western Region, but 16.2% in the rest of the state.

Conclusion

As the ESRI noted (Pg 10), there has been an almost total decline in certain types of economic activity from mid-March onwards. Many outlets particularly in the retail, food and hospitality sectors have simply stopped trading. This will inevitably result in a dramatic increase in the numbers of workers in these sectors being made unemployed. In particular, the wholesale and retail trade and the accommodation and food service activities, which together employed over 65,548 people in the Western Region in 2016 (almost 20% of the 333,919 in employment then), look set to lose a substantial number of workers over a very short period of time.  Supermarkets, some food retailers and pharmacists are, however, increasing employment.

The pattern of employment in the Western Region compared to the Rest of the state has both positive and negative aspects in this current crisis.  Higher dependence on Accommodation and Food services means more vulnerability but in the short term the greater reliance on public service employment will provide more stability and resilience.

Yet the dominant role of public service employment in the region is also an indication of the relative weakness of private sector activity and opportunities.  The region’s slower recovery from the financial crash many mean it is more vulnerable in this crisis

If you are interested in reading more about the economic impacts of Covid 19 and government responses the ESRI scenario for the rest of the year is here.  The OECD has updated their report Covid-19: SME Policy Responses.  Potential business impacts and the pattern of business demography in the Region will be discussed the next post.

 

This series of posts brings together previous WDC analyses and examines them from the perspective of the possible impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on the economy.  The posts aim to develop our understanding of what may be happening at a regional level and what will need to be done after the public health emergency, but they are early interpretations and should be viewed as a work in progress rather than a definitive commentary.

 

 

Helen McHenry

 

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of the WDC.

 

 

[1] Quarterly Economic Commentary Spring 2020

[2] Rest of state refers to all counties in the Republic of Ireland except for the seven counties of the Western Region (Counties Donegal, Sligo, Roscommon, Leitrim, Mayo, Galway and Clare.)

[3] Locally Traded Services includes Wholesale & Retail, Accommodation & Food Service, and Transport & Storage; Knowledge Intensive Services includes Financial, Insurance & Real Estate, Information & Communications, and Professional, Scientific & Technical activities;  Public Services includes Health, Education, and Public Administration; Administrative and other services includes a wide variety of services including personal services, sporting activities, creative and other services.

[4] The Health and Education sectors also include substantial private sector employment e.g. private nursing homes, childcare, training providers.  It is not possible to separate this out however.

 

Table of Data from Fig. 1.