Census 2016: Rurality, Population Density and the Urban Population of the Western Region

Detailed population figures from the Census of Population were published last week in Profile 2 – Population Distribution and Movements  which looked at population density, rural and urban populations and the population in towns.

Rural and Urban Population

In Ireland as a whole just over a third (37%) of the population live in rural areas (that is outside towns of 1,500).  In contrast, in the Western Region shows the opposite pattern and 65% live in rural areas (Figure 1).  This is a marginal decline on 2011 (when it was 66%).

The rural population of the seven counties varies from almost 90% in Leitrim (where there is only one ‘urban centre- over 1,500) to 54% in Galway which of course includes the largest settlement.  After Leitrim, Roscommon, Donegal and Mayo are the most rural of the Western Region counties.  Sligo and Clare, along with Galway are slightly less rural.  It should be noted that Galway county (i.e. excluding the city) is one of the most rural with almost 78% of the population living in rural areas.

Figure 1: Percentage of Population living in rural areas in the Western Region and State.

Source: CSO Census 2016 Profile 2 E2008: Population Percentage in the Aggregate Town Areas and Aggregate Rural Areas

 

Each county, and the Western Region itself (64.7%), has a significantly higher proportion of people living in rural areas than for the State as a whole (37%).

Population Density

Density is another key indicator of rurality and it certainly is important in considering the provision of services.  In Ireland as a whole the population density is 70 people per square kilometre and in the more rural Western Region it is almost 32 people per km2 .  Again there is considerable variation by county and as can be seen in Figure 2 below, this largely mirrors the rurality of each of the seven counties.

Figure 2: Population Density in the Western Region and State (persons per sq km)

Source: CSO Census 2016 Profile 2 E2013: Population Density and Area Size 2011 to 2016

 

Galway has the highest population density (42 people per square km) and Leitrim has the lowest with just over 20 people per square kilometre.

Population in Towns

The population of towns across is also included in this Profile and looking at towns across the region the weak urban structure of the region is evident.

Galway is the significant city, with a population of 79,934 in 2016.  Only five towns have a population of more than 10,000 people (Table 1), and all of these had population declines between 2011 and 2016 though, with the exception of Ballina these were small.  Ennis, the largest settlement after Galway is less than a third of its size (25,276 people), and it had a slight population decline (-0.3%) while Letterkenny (19,274) and Sligo (19,199) also had population decreases (1.6% and 1.3%).  The population of Castlebar (12,068) fell by 2% but that in Ballina (10,171) fell by a more significant 8.3%.

Table 1: Population of Towns larger than 10,000 in the Western Region

2011 – Population (Number) 2016 – Population (Number) Actual change since previous census (Number) Percentage change since previous census (%)
Galway City and Suburbs, Galway 76,778 79,934 3,156 4.1
Ennis*, Clare 25,360 25,276 84 -0.3
Letterkenny*, Donegal 19,588 19,274 314 -1.6
Sligo*, Sligo 19,452 19,199 253 -1.3
Castlebar*, Mayo 12,318 12,068 250 -2
Ballina*, Mayo 11,086 10,171 915 -8.3
*Boundaries used for these Census towns have been changed since 2011 so the populations between 2011 and 2016 are not directly comparable.  See this post for more discussion.

Source: CSO Census 2016 Profile 2 E2016: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2011 to 2016 by Alphabetical List of Towns

 

There are a further seven towns with a population of more than 5,000 (Table 2) giving a total of 13 towns including Galway in that size category (5,000-9,999) in the Western Region.  All of the towns in this category grew with the exception of Buncrana (-0.8%) and Ballinasloe which had no change.  The largest growth was in Loughrea (9.8%) which, along with Tuam, serves as a residential location for people working in Galway.

Table 2: Population of Towns 5,000-9,999 in the Western Region

2011 – Population (Number) 2016 – Population (Number) Actual change since previous census (Number) Percentage change since previous census (%)
Shannon*, Clare             9,673            9,729 56 0.6
Tuam*, Galway             8,242            8,767 525 6.4
Buncrana*, Donegal             6,839            6,785 – 54 -0.8
Ballinasloe*, Galway             6,659           6,662     3 0
Westport*, Mayo             6,063            6,198   135 2.2
Roscommon, Roscommon             5,693            5,876  183 3.2
Loughrea*, Galway             5,062            5,556 494 9.8
*Boundaries used for these Census towns have been changed since 2011 so the populations between 2011 and 2016 are not directly comparable.  See this post for more discussion.

Source: CSO Census 2016 Profile 2 E2016: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2011 to 2016 by Alphabetical List of Towns

 

There are a further 27 towns in the Western Region with a population of more than 1,500 and which are therefore categorised as urban.  Athenry (12.5%), Gort (13.2%), Tubbercurry (13.7%) and Collooney (17.6%) showed the strongest growth, while Clifden showed a very significant population decline (-22.3%) partially associated with the closure of a Direct Provision Accommodation Centre in 2012.

Table 3 below shows the urban structure of the region.  165,922 people (58% of the region’s urban population of 283,873) live in towns of more than 10,000, and a further 49,573 people (17%) in towns of more than 5,000.  A significant population lives in the smallest towns 68,378 (24%)

Table 3: Urban Structure of the Western Region

2011 2016 Actual change (2011-2016) Percentage change (2011-2016)
Population of towns greater than 10,000 164,582 165,922 1,340 0.8%
Population of towns 5,000- 9,999 48,231 49,573 1,342 2.8%
Population of towns 1,500-4,999 66,647 68,378 1,731 2.6%
Total Population of towns greater than 1,500 279,460 283,873 4,413 1.6%

Source: CSO Census 2016 Profile 2 E2016: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2011 to 2016 by Alphabetical List of Towns

 

While these urban populations are significant in the context of the region, it should be remembered that more than half a million people (535,953) are living in rural areas (in small settlements and open countryside) in the Region.  The CSO has provides population details of a further 201 settlements in the Region, the smallest of these is Malin (population 92) and 103,936 people live in these.  A total of 440,888 (53%) therefore live in more open countryside (and in even smaller settlements).

Conclusion

It is important to remember that the Western Region is a very rural region, and while higher level services (for example in health and education) should be provided in the larger urban settlements, the needs of those living in more rural, dispersed populations and the best means of providing services and access to services and employment in these areas must be considered.

For some more detail on town populations in each Western Region county see the WDC County Profiles.

Helen McHenry

Census 2016- Understanding Change in the Western Region

The Summary Results (Part 1) of the 2016 Census of Population were released last week (6th April), with information on population, and corrections to the preliminary results, as well as a number of other statistics giving an overall picture of Irish society.  The infographic below, produced by the CSO, provides a picture of the data available.

A CSO report with maps and charts on key statistics is available here  and a presentation on highlights of the data release is available here .

This post discusses some of the information available for the Western Region based on  data provided at county level.  As more detailed Profiles become available we will be able to present more information at Region, County and ED levels.

What is the population of the Western Region and how has it changed since 2011?

Since the release of the Preliminary Results which was discussed here  the population in most Western Region counties has been amended (in most cases it has been increased slightly, although Galway City population has been reduced)[1].  A notable change is that Sligo had, in the preliminary results, a marginal population decrease between 2011 and 2016 but in this corrected data it has actually shown a slight population increase.

The Western Region population was 828,697 people in April 2016.  The population of the region increased by 7,817 people since 2011 (0.95%). In contrast, between 2006 and 2011 there was an increase of 57,516 persons or 7.5% in the population of the Western Region.

The state population in April 2016 was 4,761,865. It increased by 173,613 persons (3.8%) between 2011 and 2016   (Table 1).

Two counties in Ireland, both in the Western Region (Donegal (-1.5%); Mayo (-0.1%)) experienced population decline over the period.  The highest population growth in the Western Region was in Galway City (4.2%) while Galway County also grew (2.4%).  Clare had the next highest population growth (1.4%) while both Leitrim (0.8%) and Roscommon (0.7%) had very small population growth.

Table 1: Population in 2011 and 2016 of western counties, Western Region and rest of state[2]

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2006 to 2016 by Sex, County and City, Census Year and Statistic   

 

Differences in Male and Female Populations

In all counties (and in the Western Region and the State) there was higher growth in the female population than the male population (See Table 2).  In the Western Region there was a 1.6% increase in the female population and 0.3% in the male population.  For the rest of the state the difference was not so pronounced (males 3.6%; females 4%).  Donegal was the only county to experience a decline in its female population.

Table 2:  Percentage Change in County Population 2011-2016 Male and Female

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2006 to 2016 by Sex, County and City, Census Year and Statistic   

 

This difference in the patterns of male and female population growth relates in large part to different patterns of migration and more detailed information will be available on this in Profile 2 (Population Distribution and Movement, release due 11 May) and Profile 7 (Migration and Diversity, release due 21 September).  However, Table 3 below shows the differences in the male and female population in each county (using the standard measure of males per 100 females).  As would be expected, because women live longer, in the oldest age category (75+) there are significantly fewer males than females.  What is more unexpected is that the 30-44 age category has fewer men than women (unlike the age categories above and below it).  This indicates significant male migration in this age category.  Again, as more detail becomes available the different patterns can be better understood.  Galway City consistently has more females than males across the age categories.

Table 3: County breakdown of men per 100 women by age group, 2016

Source: CSO Summary results Census 2016 Part 1, Figure 3.8

 

In this Census 2016 Summary Report the population is not available at ED level.  It is expected that this will be contained in the forthcoming release for Profile 2- Population Distribution and Movements on 11th May.  Similarly, while the Summary Report discusses urban and rural population the detail is not provided at county level.

Population Age and Dependency

Some information is provided about age and the map below shows the difference in average age across Ireland.  The average age in the state is 37.4 but the average age is higher in more rural counties of the West and North West and in Kerry and Tipperary.  In fact Kerry and Mayo have the highest average age (both 40.2) followed closely by Leitrim (39.8), Roscommon (39.7) and Sligo (39.2) while the youngest is in Fingal at 34.3 years.

Source:  CSO Summary results Census 2016 Part 1, Map 3.1

 

It is useful to examine the dependency ratios in the Western Region.  Dependents are defined for statistical purposes as people outside the normal working age of 15-64.  Dependency ratios are used to give a useful indication of the age structure of a population with young (0-14) and old (65+) shown as a percentage of the population of working age (i.e. 15-64).

Nationally, the total dependency ratio was 52.7% while that in the Western Region was, as would be expected, higher at 57.4%.  Leitrim had the highest dependency ratio of any county at 62.6 per cent, closely followed by counties Mayo (61.0%), Roscommon (60.8%) and Donegal (60.5%).  The lowest dependency ratios were in Galway city at 39.0 per cent, followed by Cork city (42.8%), Fingal (50.7%) and Kildare (51.4%).

Looking into the make up of this greater dependency the old age and young dependency ratios are shown in Figure 1.  Galway County has the highest young dependency in the region (36.1%) while Galway City has the lowest in the region (23.4%).  Most counties in the Western Region (except Sligo) have higher young dependencies than the State as a whole (32.3%) in part because of the loss of working age population through migration.  Similarly most Western Region counties also have higher old age dependencies than the state (20.4%) with Galway City once again the exception (15.6%).  The highest old age dependency is in Mayo (28.3%)

Figure 1: Old Age and Young dependency Ratios in the Western Region and State, 2016

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004

 

Conclusion

Over the coming months to December 2017 data from Census 2016 will be released under various headings.  This important information gives us the opportunity to better understand our region and its characteristics.  It is essential for policy and decision making, as well as to our understanding the differences among regions in relation to a variety of issues such as economic output, social transfers and the demand for different goods and services.  We look forward to analysing the future releases and to providing a better understanding of the Western Region throughout 2017.

 

Helen McHenry

 

[1] The Preliminary Results are based on the summary sheet for the Census form while this release is based on the information in the complete Census form.

[2] Rest of state refers to all the counties in the state except for the seven counties of the Western Region.

 

Key Issues for the National Planning Framework – Submission from the WDC

The WDC  made its submission on Ireland 2040 – Our Plan: National Planning Framework   yesterday.  The Issues and Choices paper covered a wide range of topics from national planning challenges to sustainability, health, infrastructure and the role of cities and towns.  A key element of the paper considered the future in a “business as usual” scenario in which even greater growth takes place in the Dublin and Mid East region with consequent increased congestion and increasing costs for businesses and society, while other parts of the country continue to have under-utilised potential which is lost to Ireland.  The consultation paper therefore sought to explore the broad questions of alternative opportunities and ways to move away from the “business as usual” scenario.

The WDC submission considers these issues from the perspective of the Western Region, the needs of the Region, the opportunities its development presents for Ireland’s economy and society as a whole and the choices, investments and policy required to achieve regional growth and resilience.

This post highlights the key points made in the submission.  The complete, comprehensive submission on the National Planning Framework by the WDC can be read here (4.5MB PDF).  A shorter summary is available here (0.7MB PDF).

 

What should the NPF achieve?

  • The National Planning Framework (NPF) provides Ireland with an opportunity to more fully realise the potential of all of its regions to contribute to national growth and productivity. All areas of Ireland, the Capital and second tier cities, large, medium and small-sized towns, villages and open countryside, have roles to play both in the national economy and, most importantly, as locations for people to live.
  • While spatial planning strives for ideal settlement or employment patterns and transport infrastructure, in many aspects of life change is relatively slow; demographics may alter gradually over decades and generations and, given the housing boom in the early part of this century, many of our existing housing units will be in use in the very long term. If the NPF is to be effective it must focus on what is needed, given current and historical patterns and the necessity for a more balanced pattern of development.
  • To effectively support national growth it is important that there is not excessive urban concentration “Either over or under [urban] concentration … is very costly in terms of economic efficiency and national growth rates” (Vernon Henderson, 2000[1]). Thus it is essential that, through the NPF, other cities and other regions become the focus of investment and development.

Developing Cities

  • As the NPF is to be a high level Framework, in this submission the WDC does not go into detail by naming places or commenting on specific development projects, as these will be covered by the forthcoming Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies (RSES). The exception to this, however, is in relation to the need for cities to counterbalance Dublin.  In this case we emphasise the role of Galway and the potential for Sligo to be developed as the key growth centre for the North West.
  • The North West is a large rural region and Sligo is the best located large urban centre to support development throughout much of the North West region. With effective linkages to other urban centres throughout the region and improved connectivity, along with support from regional and national stakeholders, Sligo can become a more effective regional driver, supporting a greater share of population, economic and employment growth in Sligo itself and the wider North West region.

Developing Towns

  • While the NPF is to be a high level document and the focus is largely on cities it is important not to assume that development of key cities will constitute regional development. All areas need to be the focus of definite policy, and the NPF should make this clear.
  • While cities may drive regional development, other towns, at a smaller scale, can be equally important to their region. Recognising this is not the same as accepting that all towns need the same level of connection and services.  It is more important to understand that the context of each town differs, in terms of distance and connectivity to other towns and to the cities, the size of the hinterland it serves and its physical area as well as population.  Therefore their infrastructure and service needs differ.
  • Towns play a central role in Ireland’s settlement hierarchy. While much of the emphasis in the NPF Issues and Choices paper is on cities and their role, for a large proportion of Ireland’s population small and medium-sized towns act as their key service centre for education, retail, recreation, primary health and social activities.  Even within the hinterlands of the large cities, people access many of their daily services in smaller centres.  The NPF needs to be clear on the role it sees for towns in effective regional development.

Rural Areas

  • Rural areas provide key resources essential to our economy and society. They are the location of our natural resources and also most of our environmental, biodiversity and landscape assets.  They are places of residence and employment, as well as places of amenity, recreation and refuge.
  • They are already supporting national economic growth, climate action objectives and local communities, albeit at a smaller scale than towns and cities. But a greater focus on developing rural regions would increase the contribution to our economy and society made by rural areas.
  • The key solution to maintaining rural populations is the availability of employment. It is important that the NPF is truly focused on creating opportunities for the people who live in the regions, whether in cities, towns or rural areas.

Employment and Enterprise

  • In the Issues and Choices paper a narrow definition of ‘job’, ‘work’ and ‘employer’ as a full-time permanent employee travelling every day to a specific work location seems to be assumed. This does not recognise either the current reality of ‘work’ or the likely changes to 2040. Self-employment, the ‘gig’ or ‘sharing’ economy, contract work, freelancing, e-Working, multiple income streams, online business are all trends that are redefining the conceptions of work, enterprise and their physical location.
  • If the NPF mainly equates ‘employer’ with a large IT services or high-tech manufacturing company, many of which (though by no means all) are attracted to larger cities, then it will only address the needs of a small proportion of the State’s population and labour force.
  • Similarly the NPF must recognise the need to enable and support the diversification of the Irish economy and enterprise base. It must provide a support framework for indigenous business growth across all regions and particularly in sectors where regions have comparative advantage.

Location Decisions

  • While job opportunities are a critical factor in people’s decision of where to live, they are by no means the only factor. Many other personal and social factors influence this decision such as closeness to family (including for childcare and elder care reasons), affordability, social and lifestyle preferences, connection to place and community.
  • Many people have selected to live in one location but commute to work elsewhere or, in some cases, e-Work for a number of days a week. The NPF needs to recognise the complexity of reasons for people’s location decisions in planning for the development of settlements.

Infrastructure

  • New infrastructure can be transformative (the increase in motorway infrastructure in recent decades shows how some change happens relatively quickly). Therefore it is essential that we carefully consider where we place new investments.  To do so, capital appraisal and evaluation methods determining the costs and benefits of different investment projects need to be re-examined if we are to move from a ‘business as usual’ approach.
  • Investment in infrastructure can strongly influence the location of other infrastructure with a detrimental impact on unserved locations. The North West of the country is at a disadvantage compared to other regions with regard to motorway access. This situation will be compounded if investment in rail is focused on those routes with better road access (motorways) in order for rail to stay competitive, or if communications or electricity networks are developed along existing motorway or rail corridors.
  • The WDC believes that the regional cities can be developed more and have untapped potential, however better intra-regional linkages are needed. The weaker links between the regional centres – notably Cork to Limerick and north of Galway through to Sligo and on to Letterkenny, are likely to be a factor in the relatively slower growth of regional centres in contrast to the motorway network, most of which serves Dublin from the regions.

Climate Change

For the future, the need to move to a low carbon, fossil fuel free economy is essential and needs to be an integral and much more explicit part of the NPF.  The National Mitigation Plan for Climate Change is currently being developed, and it is essential that actions under the NPF will be in line with, and support, the actions in the Mitigation Plan.

How should the NPF be implemented?

  • While much of the role of the NPF is strategic vision and coordination of decision-making, in order for the Framework to be effective it is essential that the achievement of the vision and the actions essential to it are appropriately resourced. The Issues and Choices paper does not give a detailed outline of how the NPF implementation will be resourced, except through the anticipated alignment with the Capital Investment Programme.
  • It should be remembered that policy on services and regional development is not just implemented through capital spending but also though current spending and through policy decisions with spatial implications (such as those relating to the location of services). Therefore it is essential that other spending, investment and policy decisions are in line with the NPF rather than operating counter to it.
  • While the NPF is to provide a high level Framework for development in Ireland to 2040, it seems this Framework is to be implemented at a regional level through the RSES. The Framework and the Strategies are therefore interlinked yet the respective roles of the NPF and the RSES are not explicit and so it is not evident which areas of development will be influenced by the NPF and which by the RSES.
  • In order to ensure that the NPF is implemented effectively it is important that there is a single body with responsibility for its delivery and that there is a designated budget to help achieve its implementation.

 

It is expected that a draft National Planning Framework document will be published for consultation in May.  Following that a final version of the Framework will be prepared for discussion and consideration by Dáil Éireann.

 

As mentioned above the full WDC submission on the Issues and Choices paper Ireland 2040 Our Plan- A National Planning Framework is available here (PDF 4.5MB) and a summary of key point and responses to consultation questions is available here (PDF 0.7MB).

 

 

Helen McHenry

[1] http://www.nber.org/papers/w7503

WDC Insights Christmas Quiz Time Again!

We are sure you have been reading our WDC Insights blog and keeping an eye on our publications throughout 2016.  Take our Christmas Quiz (10 questions) and see just how well you can score on regional development and Western Region issues.

The answers are at the end with links to more information and the relevant posts.

Good Luck!

 

blog christmas tree1      County Incomes

County incomes and regional GDP statistics are released by the CSO annually.  Disposable indicates the level of material wealth of households residing in different regions and is a better indicator of material well-being of citizens than GDP per person.

What county had the lowest household disposable income per person in 2013 and 2014?

  1. Mayo
  2. Leitrim
  3. Donegal

blog christmas tree2       Regional and Local Roads

Regional and local roads are the core of regional and rural transport. They are crucial to economic activity, and the importance of commuting to work across counties and to towns and cities is well recognised yet the regional and local roads grant allocation for 2016 was €298m, less than half that for 2009.

How many kilometres of regional and local roads are there in Ireland?

  1. 91,000kms
  2. 127,000kms
  3. 62,000kms

blog christmas tree3      Employment and Jobs

The jobs growth that is occurring in the Western Region in recent years has been strongly driven by self-employment.  Between 2012 and 2015 the number of self-employed in the Western Region grew by significantly, and by much more than in the rest of the state.  By how much did it grow?

  1. 12.1
  2. 11.8%
  3. 13.6%

blog christmas tree4      Vital Statistics

It is interesting to look birth and death rates by county and the significant differences among them. There were 65,909 births in the state in 2015 of which 16% (10,527) were to mothers resident in the Western Region.  The birth rate (Births per year per 1,000 population) nationally was 14.1 with the highest rate (17.4) in Fingal.

The lowest birth rate was in both counties Roscommon and Kerry.  What was it?

  1. 12.6 Births per 1,000 population
  2. 9.1 Births per 1,000 population
  3. 11.8 Births per 1,000 population

blog christmas tree5      Enterprises in the Western Region

In 2014 there were 40,797 active enterprises registered in the seven county Western Region.  This was significantly lower than the number registered in 2008.  In contrast, in the rest of the state the number in 2014 was just 1% below the 2008 figure.

How many more businesses were registered in the Western Region in 2008 than in 2014?

  1. 3,824
  2. 2,167
  3. 3,210

blog christmas tree6      Local Property Tax

The Local Property Tax (LPT) is an annual self-assessed tax charged on the market value of all residential properties in the State.  It came into effect in 2013 and is being administered by Revenue.  The total number of properties returned for payment of the LPT in the Western Region was 354,400 in 2015 with 1.86 m properties returned for the state.  In the state €427m in Local Property Tax was collected nationally in 2015.

How much was collected in the Western Region ?

  1. €62.7m
  2. €61.4m
  3. €59.2m

blog christmas tree7      Broadband

The WDC has been highlighting rural broadband needs for more than a decade. It is a particular issue for our largely rural region

What proportion of premises covered by the National Broadband Plan area are in the Western Region?

  1. 73%
  2. 19%
  3. 34%

blog christmas tree8      Regional contribution to Agricultural output

Despite the importance of agriculture for employment in the region it contributed only a small amount to GVA in the West and Border regions.  However, although only a small proportion of GVA is from Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing in these regions, they both make a substantial contribution to national Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing GVA.

What percentage share of national GVA from Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing is produced by the Border Region?

  1. 14.4%
  2. 27.6%
  3. 16.2%

blog christmas tree9      Population changes in the Region

Preliminary results for Census 2016 show that the population grew in most Irish counties, but it fell in some counties of the Western Region.

In how many counties of the Western Region did it fall?

  1. 2 counties
  2. 3 counties
  3. 5 counties

blog christmas tree10      Vehicles licensed for the first time

In 2015 Roscommon had the fifth highest level of new car registrations in the country.  This is surprising for such a small county.  What is the reason?

  1. Roscommon people love to drive new cars
  2. A car hire company operating in the county is registering the cars there
  3. In this county Santa brings new cars for Christmas every year

 

blog christmas treeAnswers:

  1. County Incomes

Answer: 3) Donegal

For more on this see this post

 

  1. Regional and Local Roads

Answer: 2) 91,000kms

For more on this see the post here.

 

  1. Employment and jobs

Answer: 3) 13.6%

For more on this and other information about the jobs recovery see this post

 

  1. Vital Statistics

Answer: 3) 11.8

Read more about vital statistics in the Western Region counties here

 

  1. Enterprises in the Western Region

Answer: 1) 3,824

For more about enterprises in the Western Region and the varying trends among counties see this post

 

  1. Local Property Tax

Answer:1) €62.7m or 2) €61.4m

This time we accept either of two answers!  According to the blog posted in September it was €62.7m but figures have been revised since then and are now €61.4.  Read the blog post to find out more about the LPT or find the latest data here

 

  1. Broadband

Answer: 3) 34%

Read more about the issue of rural broadband here and here.

 

  1. Regional contribution to Agricultural output

Answer: 1) 14.4%

Read more about the regional GVA from different sectors and the contribution of regions to national output here.

 

  1. Population changes in the Western Region

Answer 2) 3 counties

The population fell in Donegal, Sligo and Mayo.  For more on the preliminary results on census 2016 for the Western Region see this post and this post and this post which focuses on housing and vacancy rates or read our WDC Insights and reports available here  https://www.wdc.ie/publications/reports-and-papers/ .

 

  1. New Vehicle registrations

Answer: 2) A car hire company operating in the county is registering the cars there

There is a Car Hire company office operating in Roscommon which taxes all new vehicles for the Car Hire Company (i.e. all the offices in Ireland)  for the first time in the County – the figures in the previous post were based on the first taxing of the vehicle and not the registration. This company taxed 2,236 vehicles out of the 4,877  vehicles in 2015. That is nearly 45% of the new private cars licensed for the first time in the county.

For more on new car registrations and the level in Co. Roscommon see this post and this one.

 

How well did you do?

You got 9 or 10 answers correct

CONGRATULATIONS! You really know a lot about regional development, the Western Region and the Western Development Commission’s work.

 

You got between 4 and 8 answers correct

WELL DONE, a good score but some deficiencies in your knowledge. Perhaps you should read our WDC Insights posts more carefully in 2017!

 

You got between 0 and 3 answers correct

OH DEAR! Time to pay more attention to regional development and Western Region Issues. You’ll have to do some extra study over the holiday! Reread the WDC Insights blog and check out the WDC publications page and re-take the quiz in the New Year!

 

Happy Christmas!

blog christmas tree

 

 

 

 

Helen McHenry

Census 2016- Preliminary results: How did population change at a sub-county level?

In July of this year, the CSO published preliminary results of the Census. These are very initial results for a small number of indicators based on the forms completed by the Census Enumerators.  These results will be subject to revision when the full results are published next year.

It is nevertheless useful to examine the preliminary results as the period 2011-2016 was one of considerable fluctuation and uncertainty in population trends, nationally and in the Western Region, and these results can shed some light on what has occurred.

Previous posts provided some headline figures on population and migration data  in 2016 and changes since 2011 and also housing stock and vacancy rates  but the preliminary Census results also contain population data at the electoral division (ED) level.

There are almost a thousand EDs in the Western Region and an overview of the trends is provided here.  A more detailed analysis of the preliminary census results for the Western Region is available here.

Of the 983 EDs in the Region, 533 EDs experienced population decline, 17 showed no population change and 433 of them experienced population growth between 2011 and 2016.

Of those that experienced population growth 180 had population growth greater than 5% and 25 had growth of over 15%.  In contrast, 262 EDs had a population decline of more than 5% and of these 16 had a population decline of more than 15%.

The map below shows the percentage change in the population of the EDs (all the EDS in blue have shown population decline).  In general it can be seen that many of the EDs with the strongest population growth are on the edges or within easy commuting distance to the larger urban centres in the region.

Map 1: Percentage change in the population of Electoral Divisions, 2006-2011    map1

Source: All-Island Research Observatory http://airomaps.nuim.ie/id/Census2016/ based on CSO, 2016, Census of Population 2016: Preliminary Results

Additionally the areas showing the strongest pattern of decline and low growth are concentrated in the Western Region and down the western seaboard while the areas of highest growth are concentrated in the east of the state.

In terms of the actual increase in their population the ten EDs in the Western Region with the greatest population growth are shown on Table 1 below.

It should be noted that as actual population increase is being considered these are the largest EDs in the region.  Where percentage population increase in the Western Region is considered (see Map 1) it is often the smallest EDs which show the largest percentage increase are usually in the most rural EDs where populations are sparse and the population of the ED is small so it may be only a change of a few persons.

Table 1: Ten EDs  in the Western Region showing the highest actual population increase in Census 2016 (preliminary results).

table-1-ed

Source: CSO, 2016, Census of Population- preliminary Results EP008

 

In contrast Table 2 below shows the ten EDs in the Western Region which have had the largest actual population decrease and while the largest population increases were in and close to urban areas, the places with the largest actual population decreases are among the most rural in the Western Region.

Table 2: Ten EDs  in the Western Region showing the highest actual population decrease in Census 2016 (preliminary results).

table-2-ed

Source: CSO, 2016, Census of Population- preliminary Results EP008

 

The preliminary results of Census 2016 provide an initial snapshot of the demographic changes that have occurred over the past five years.  Out-migration has been a key factor and the widespread loss of population in rural areas in the Western Region is of concern.

 

 

Helen McHenry

 

What it takes to sustain viable rural communities

 This week the Western Development Commission (WDC) was invited by the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Arts, Heritage, Regional, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs to discuss what it takes to sustain a viable rural community.

The committee is holding a series of meetings to get to the heart of what makes a rural community sustainable and viable. Cathaoirleach of the Committee (Committee members can be seen here)  Peadar Tóibín T.D. has said: “There is a deep imbalance in the distribution of jobs, enterprise and resources in this State causing major difficulties in urban and rural areas. Developing sustainable enterprises, improving tourism opportunities, promoting and encouraging agribusiness and creating jobs are crucial in halting population decline and in sustaining rural communities”.

During their deliberations the Committee will examine all aspects of the requirements of rural communities in modern Ireland. They have divided hearings into six different streams: employment, emergency services, local services, quality of life, education and transport. They will gather evidence from witnesses from all four provinces, including the Gaeltacht, including representatives from Leader partnerships and Government agencies, local service and local interest groups, business, education, farming, financial and transport sectors, and health care, leisure, sport and charity organisations as well as the relevant Government Departments. It will be a wide-ranging and comprehensive study.

The hearing on Wednesday 26th October 2016 considered the employment stream which includes investment, development and employment in rural areas, doing business and locating workers in rural areas and incentives for rural enterprises, resource-based industries and creative and media industries.  It was attended by the WDC acting CEO Mr Ian Brannigan and Policy Analyst Dr Helen McHenry and also heard from Enterprise Ireland, Irish Small and Medium Enterprises; Údarás na Gaeltachta and the Irish Farmers Association. A recording of the webcast of the debate can be seen here.    The transcript of the meeting and the opening statement from the WDC will be available shortly.

The previous meeting of the committee on the subject (Wednesday, 12 October 2016) heard the views of a number of rural development organisations (the transcript is available here).

 

Helen McHenry

 

Census 2016 Preliminary Results – What does it say about the Western Region?

The headline figures from the preliminary Census 2016 figures show a population that is growing, nationally by 3.7% over the last 5 years. However it is not evenly spread and it is clear that much of the growth is on the East coast and in urban centres.

Nationally the population is now 4.75 million, an increase of 3.7% on the 2011 figure of 4.58 million. The Western Region’s population grew at a much slower rate, by just 0.9% over the period, to 828,124 – amounting to 7,244 more persons than in 2011.

Where is this growth occurring?

The Map below highlights the spatial distribution of population growth.


popchange

While most counties experienced some level of population growth just three counties, all in the Western Region, witnessed population decline over the five years, namely Donegal (-1.5%), Mayo (-0.2%) and Sligo (-0.1%).

From a Western Region perspective, the other four counties of the Western Region all recorded population increases over the period; Clare (+1.2%), Leitrim (+0.5%), Roscommon (+0.6%), Galway county (+2.2%), Galway city (5.3%).

It is clear from the map that the particularly high growth rates, in excess of 4% are all, apart from Cork and Longford, occurring on the East coast.

Aspects of Population Change

Net migration and natural increases are the two components of population change.

Migration

Migration, especially in an Irish context can vary a lot and is heavily influenced by the rate of economic growth. Nationally net migration over the past 5 years is estimated at -28,558. This compares with net inward migration of 115,800 over the previous five years from 2006-2011.

The migration figures include international migration as well as migration within Ireland. It is clear that a key driver for migratory flows is employment opportunity. As the map below illustrates, most counties – coloured red and orange, experienced net outward migration. Dublin and Cork city along with Kilkenny, Laois and Longford experienced net inward migration. It is most significant in parts of Dublin. All other counties experienced net outward migration and this is particularly stark on the West coast, in Donegal (-6,731), Mayo (-3,246), Galway (-3,168) and Limerick.

Net migration by county 11-16

Natural Increase

The natural increase (births minus deaths) is the other component of population growth or decline. While natural increases are evident across the country, it ranges from an annual average rate of 3.3 per 1,000 in Cork city to a rate of 15 per 1,000 in Fingal. This range is evident in the chart below.

From a Western Region perspective, all counties except Galway city have an annual average rate less than the state average which is 8.5 (on the chart between Offaly and Westmeath).

natural increase by county

So what are the policy implications?

There are many implications across a whole range of policy areas. The greater detail which will be available from the detailed Census outputs later in the year will help inform specific policy areas.

It is clear that, so far, the preliminary results from Census 2016 highlight the need for a new spatial plan which can help direct where population and economic growth should occur. Economic and population growth need to be supported to ensure optimum growth across all regions.

Deirdre Frost