What works for Rural Areas? Is Rural Policy 3.0 the answer?

Detailed analysis of what works in rural policy, why it is important, and trends in rural areas in other countries is always welcome.

The OECD has recently published its Regional Outlook 2016 with the subheading ’Productive Regions for Inclusive Societies’ which focuses on the untapped potential in regions and a structural and ‘place based’ approach to regional policy. It builds on previous editions of its Regional Outlook and on other regional development analyses including ‘Regions Matter’  , ‘How Regions Grow’   and ‘Promoting Growth in all Regions’.

This year’s OECD Regional Outlook 2016 has a special focus on ‘Rural Areas-places of opportunity’. oecd-coverAs rural areas are facing significant challenges it is useful to read analysis of trends in other countries, to review proposed policy solutions and to think about how they might be adapted to our own context in the Western Region and Ireland.

The analysis of trends is comprehensive and interesting. The chapter on ‘Understanding rural economies’ provides detailed comparisons of rural areas and a three part typology of rural areas. The results serve as a reminder of how many of the issues faced by the rural Western Region are similar to those in other OECD rural regions.

It considers the definition of “rural” and discusses the characteristics of low-density economies and examines trends in rural regions, including those in productivity, gross domestic product, employment, and demographic change, using an OECD typology that classifies rural regions according to their proximity to cities.

Key messages from this chapter are as follows:

  • Rural regions are diverse and highly influenced by their specific natural environments. Their development path is substantially different from the standard urban model. Certain rural regions in OECD countries have been highly successful in terms of economic performance and quality of life. Other rural regions have been less successful. The success or weakness of rural regions is considerably more affected by changes in economic conditions than in urban areas.

 

  • Rural regions employ different development models adapted to reflect specific features of having a low density of population and economic activity. This variability calls for a typology of different definitions of rural, such as: i) rural areas inside functional urban areas; ii) rural areas adjacent to functional urban areas; and iii) rural areas that are far from functional urban areas, i.e. “remote”.

 

  • There are different development patterns observed depending on the type of rural region. Rural regions close to cities are more dynamic than rural remote regions and also more resilient, displaying an economic performance similar to urban regions.

 

  • Productivity growth in rural regions in the pre-crisis period was mostly accompanied by employment growth. Among those rural regions that experienced positive productivity growth in the period 2000-07, two-thirds also recorded positive employment growth. Since the crisis this pattern has been difficult to maintain.

 

  • Remote rural regions are particularly vulnerable to global shocks. Following the financial crisis, their average productivity has declined, yet this average hides the fact that some remote rural regions continued to perform well during and after the financial crisis.

Following on from this analysis is a chapter on Rural Policy 3.0 which argues that a key objective of rural policy should be to increase rural competitiveness and productivity in order to enhance the social, economic and environmental well-being of rural areas. Within this approach it suggests policies should focus on enhancing competitive advantages in rural communities and should draw on integrated investments and the delivery of services that are adapted to the needs of different types of rural areas. It describes a partnership-driven approach that builds capacity at the local level to encourage participation and bottom-up development.

Key messages from this chapter are:

  • A key objective of rural policy should be to increase rural competitiveness and productivity in order to enhance the social, economic and environmental well-being of rural areas. This in turn will increase the contribution of rural regions to national performance.

 

  • Rural communities will not excel in all areas. They should focus on enhancing economic opportunities based on their competitive advantages, given their location, natural endowments, human capital and connectivity to other places.

 

  • Public policies should focus less on providing subsidies, and more on integrated investments and public services that are geared to local needs. Such policies – territorial and sectoral – are most effective where they are co-ordinated and aligned along similar goals and objectives.

 

  • Rural governments and other actors have much to gain from collaboration with one another. From procurement to service delivery and economic development, the pooling of resources and ideas across communities has a much greater impact than stand-alone actions. Such arrangements may take the form of: i) rural-rural partnerships; ii) rural-urban partnerships; or iii) government with non-profit or business partnerships.

 

  • Strong community capacity is needed to understand local dynamics in rural areas and act on them. Implementing public policies that strengthen the capability of community actors is critical to fostering the success and resilience of rural areas.

 

  • Effective rural policy recognises that development opportunities and constraints in rural regions are different than those in urban ones, and can vary across the types of rural regions. Rural policies are thus distinct from, but complementary to, urban development approaches.

For those who have been following OECD work on regional and rural policy, there is some discussion of the movement from the ‘New Rural Paradigm’ developed in 2006 to the amended and updated Rural Policy 3.0 which is about implementing the New Rural Paradigm.

policy-table

While such policy analysis is interesting at an academic level and the typology of rural areas is worthwhile, there is less practical detail on how good rural policy can be developed. Clearly there are differences among OECD members and also among OECD regions, but for those hoping to develop rural policy it would be useful to have a focus on the choices facing policy makers and more practical detail on policy types.

Rural Policy 3.0 suggests that it is important to invest rather than subsidise, to include private sector rather than just public sector, to have an integrated policy approach rather than just bottom up or top down, and to use a place based approach recognising differences rather than one size fits all.  All of these are of course inarguable but questions about how to integrate them into a cohesive rural policy remain.

  • What are the best ways to deliver services?
  • How can we enhance the competitive advantage of rural areas?
  • At what scale of place should policy operate to make the most of place potential and yet allow for manageable policy?
  • How can we include the private sector and communities in a meaningful way?
  • How can we implement some of these ideas in Ireland where most public spending is controlled at national level?   ?

When developing rural policy in Ireland we need to consider the approach outlined in Rural Policy 3.0, but also to develop it so that our strategy for rural areas has practical focus on helping rural areas to achieve their potential.

 

Helen McHenry

 

Census 2016- Preliminary results: How did population change at a sub-county level?

In July of this year, the CSO published preliminary results of the Census. These are very initial results for a small number of indicators based on the forms completed by the Census Enumerators.  These results will be subject to revision when the full results are published next year.

It is nevertheless useful to examine the preliminary results as the period 2011-2016 was one of considerable fluctuation and uncertainty in population trends, nationally and in the Western Region, and these results can shed some light on what has occurred.

Previous posts provided some headline figures on population and migration data  in 2016 and changes since 2011 and also housing stock and vacancy rates  but the preliminary Census results also contain population data at the electoral division (ED) level.

There are almost a thousand EDs in the Western Region and an overview of the trends is provided here.  A more detailed analysis of the preliminary census results for the Western Region is available here.

Of the 983 EDs in the Region, 533 EDs experienced population decline, 17 showed no population change and 433 of them experienced population growth between 2011 and 2016.

Of those that experienced population growth 180 had population growth greater than 5% and 25 had growth of over 15%.  In contrast, 262 EDs had a population decline of more than 5% and of these 16 had a population decline of more than 15%.

The map below shows the percentage change in the population of the EDs (all the EDS in blue have shown population decline).  In general it can be seen that many of the EDs with the strongest population growth are on the edges or within easy commuting distance to the larger urban centres in the region.

Map 1: Percentage change in the population of Electoral Divisions, 2006-2011    map1

Source: All-Island Research Observatory http://airomaps.nuim.ie/id/Census2016/ based on CSO, 2016, Census of Population 2016: Preliminary Results

Additionally the areas showing the strongest pattern of decline and low growth are concentrated in the Western Region and down the western seaboard while the areas of highest growth are concentrated in the east of the state.

In terms of the actual increase in their population the ten EDs in the Western Region with the greatest population growth are shown on Table 1 below.

It should be noted that as actual population increase is being considered these are the largest EDs in the region.  Where percentage population increase in the Western Region is considered (see Map 1) it is often the smallest EDs which show the largest percentage increase are usually in the most rural EDs where populations are sparse and the population of the ED is small so it may be only a change of a few persons.

Table 1: Ten EDs  in the Western Region showing the highest actual population increase in Census 2016 (preliminary results).

table-1-ed

Source: CSO, 2016, Census of Population- preliminary Results EP008

 

In contrast Table 2 below shows the ten EDs in the Western Region which have had the largest actual population decrease and while the largest population increases were in and close to urban areas, the places with the largest actual population decreases are among the most rural in the Western Region.

Table 2: Ten EDs  in the Western Region showing the highest actual population decrease in Census 2016 (preliminary results).

table-2-ed

Source: CSO, 2016, Census of Population- preliminary Results EP008

 

The preliminary results of Census 2016 provide an initial snapshot of the demographic changes that have occurred over the past five years.  Out-migration has been a key factor and the widespread loss of population in rural areas in the Western Region is of concern.

 

 

Helen McHenry

 

What it takes to sustain viable rural communities

 This week the Western Development Commission (WDC) was invited by the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Arts, Heritage, Regional, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs to discuss what it takes to sustain a viable rural community.

The committee is holding a series of meetings to get to the heart of what makes a rural community sustainable and viable. Cathaoirleach of the Committee (Committee members can be seen here)  Peadar Tóibín T.D. has said: “There is a deep imbalance in the distribution of jobs, enterprise and resources in this State causing major difficulties in urban and rural areas. Developing sustainable enterprises, improving tourism opportunities, promoting and encouraging agribusiness and creating jobs are crucial in halting population decline and in sustaining rural communities”.

During their deliberations the Committee will examine all aspects of the requirements of rural communities in modern Ireland. They have divided hearings into six different streams: employment, emergency services, local services, quality of life, education and transport. They will gather evidence from witnesses from all four provinces, including the Gaeltacht, including representatives from Leader partnerships and Government agencies, local service and local interest groups, business, education, farming, financial and transport sectors, and health care, leisure, sport and charity organisations as well as the relevant Government Departments. It will be a wide-ranging and comprehensive study.

The hearing on Wednesday 26th October 2016 considered the employment stream which includes investment, development and employment in rural areas, doing business and locating workers in rural areas and incentives for rural enterprises, resource-based industries and creative and media industries.  It was attended by the WDC acting CEO Mr Ian Brannigan and Policy Analyst Dr Helen McHenry and also heard from Enterprise Ireland, Irish Small and Medium Enterprises; Údarás na Gaeltachta and the Irish Farmers Association. A recording of the webcast of the debate can be seen here.    The transcript of the meeting and the opening statement from the WDC will be available shortly.

The previous meeting of the committee on the subject (Wednesday, 12 October 2016) heard the views of a number of rural development organisations (the transcript is available here).

 

Helen McHenry

 

Planning for Regional Development- download presentations from the Annual Conference of the Regional Studies Association Irish Branch

The Annual Conference of the Regional Studies Association Irish Branch (in conjunction with NUI Galway and the Western Development Commission) was held on 9 September 2016 at NUI Galway.  The conference was titled “Planning for Regional Development: The National Planning Framework as a Roadmap for Ireland’s Future?”.

The conference was timely with work underway on the new National Planning Framework and its associated Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies. There was much discussion of these and of the issue of regional balance in Ireland from both speakers and attendees.

Presentations from the conference can be downloaded here

Local Property Tax in the Western Region

Local Property Tax (LPT) data for each county is released regularly by Revenue and includes information on the number of properties, the compliance rate and the amount of LPT collected.  While data is available to June 2016, because collection for the year is not complete[1] the focus of this post is on data for 2013 to 2015 for Western Region counties[2].

The Local Property Tax (LPT) is an annual self-assessed tax charged on the market value of all residential properties in the State.  It came into effect in 2013 and is being administered by Revenue[3].

In this post the properties returned, the compliance rate and the amount of LPT collected and the property valuation distribution for counties in the Western region is considered.

Properties Returned

The total number of properties returned for payment of the LPT in the Western Region was 354,400[4] in 2015.  This varies from 15,600 in Leitrim (this is the smallest number in any local authority in Ireland) to 70,500 in county Galway.

 

Figure 1: Properties returned for the LPT in the Western Region in 2015

lpt-blog-fig-1
Source: Local Property Tax (LPT) Statistics 2013-2015, Revenue, June 2016

Donegal had a similar number of properties returned in 2015 (70,300) while Mayo had (58,000) and Clare (51,500) were the next largest counties.

Nationally 1,861,000 properties were returned for collection in 2015 with the largest numbers of properties, as would be expected, in Dublin city (229,700) and Cork city (163,700) followed by the other Dublin Local Authority areas.

In all counties of the Western Region there were fewer properties returned in 2015 than in either 2013 or 2014, although this is likely to relate to some extent to the time it can take to collect some LPT.

Compliance Rate for LPT

The national compliance rate[5] for payment of the property tax was 97% in 2015 but there is significant variation in the compliance rates among counties.  Donegal had the lowest compliance rate in the country in 2015 at 91.5%, with Leitrim the next lowest (93.8%).  Laois (99.7%) has the highest compliance rate in the country, followed closely by Fingal (99.6%).

Three Local Authority areas in the Western Region Galway county (97.9%), Galway city (97.1%) and Roscommon (97.1%) had compliance rates higher than the national average.

Compliance rates have varied over the last few years with most Local Authority areas showing a decline from a peak compliance in 2013 or 2014.  However, this is due, at least in part, to the ongoing nature of the collection process.

Figure 2: Compliance rates for LPT in the Western Region 2013-2015

lpt-blog-fig-2

Source: Local Property Tax (LPT) Statistics 2013-2015, Revenue, June 2016

Donegal, for example, had a compliance rate of 93.1% in 2013 and this was also, at that stage, the lowest in the country.  In contrast in Galway city compliance increased in 2014 (97.4%) and fell slightly in 2015.

LPT Collected

In 2015 €437m in Local Property Tax was collected nationally (of which €62.7m was collected in the Western Region).  In the Western Region the least amount (€2.1m) collected for a local authority area was for Leitrim.  This was joint lowest nationally with Longford where the same amount was collected in 2015.  Roscommon (€3.8m) and Sligo (€5.2m) also had relatively low LPT amounts collected.

Galway county had the highest LPT take in the Western Region at €14.3m in 2015 with Donegal (€10.8m) and Mayo (€9.9m) somewhat lower. Clare and Galway city both collected over €8m.

Figure 3: LPT collected for each Local Authority Area 2014 and 2015

lpt-blog-fig-3
Source: Local Property Tax (LPT) Statistics 2013-2015, Revenue, June 2016

Clearly the amount collected for each local authority area is a function of the number of properties in that area, the compliance rate and the Local Adjustment Factor applied by the Local Authority as well as the valuation of the properties.

Valuation Bands in Local Authorities.

With substantial variations in property values across the country, there is also very significant variation in the proportions of properties in each Local Authority area in each valuation band.  For example, in Longford 60.1% of properties are valued at less than €100,000 while in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown only 1.4% are.  Similarly in Dun Laoghaire Rathdown 58.3% of properties are valued over €300,000 while only 0.2% are in Leitrim and Longford.

Figure 4 below shows the percentage of properties in each valuation band for the Local Authority areas in the Western Region.  Leitrim (59.7%), Roscommon (56.1%) and Donegal (50.2%) all had more than half of their properties in the lowest rate band.  This compares to the national average of 27%.

Figure 4: Percentage in each valuation band for Local Authorities in the Western Region

lpt-blog-fig-4

Source: Local Property Tax (LPT) Statistics 2013-2015, Revenue, June 2016, preliminary analysis

 

In contrast only Galway city had more than 5% of its properties valued over €300,000, compared to the national average of 9%.

The variation in the proportions of properties in the different valuation bands is not unexpected but it does have very significant impact on the revenue a local authority can gain from the LPT.

Conclusion

While not the most significant revenue stream for Local Authorities the LPT is nonetheless important.  The blog PublicPolicy.ie   has shown that the Local Property Tax (LPT) will account for a quarter of the total income of the Local Government Fund (LGF) in 2016[6], totalling €437.6m, While motor tax is expected to comprise 60% of the Local Government Fund income, exchequer funding (16%) is the other source.

It is useful to have a good understanding of the differences among counties in LPT collected, compliance rates and property valuation.  While for some Local Authorities LPT can be an important source of funding in many of the Western Region Local Authorities the LPT is not likely to be a very significant revenue source.

 

Helen McHenry

 

[1] The Revenue continues to collect LPT for the years 2013-2015 also.

[2] Updated in June 2015

[3] Thanks to staff at revenue statistics unit for providing me with data in excel format and for answering my questions about the LPT.

[4] Numbers have been rounded.

[5] The compliance rate compares the number of properties returned against the expected register of 1.95m extrapolated from CSO census information.  Work is ongoing to validate the Revenue register size.

[6] http://www.publicpolicy.ie/local-government-fund/

Census 2016: Preliminary findings on housing stock and vacancy rates. What has been happening in the Western Region?

A previous blog post Census 2016 Preliminary Results – What does it say about the Western Region? provided some headline figures on population and migration data in 2016 and changes since 2011.

Here I examine two further aspects; housing stock and vacancy rates and examine what is happening at a Western Region and county level.

What is the housing stock in the Western Region?

In April 2016, the Western Region had a housing stock of 404,494, an increase of 0.8% or 3,183 on 2011. Nationally the increase was 0.9% over this period (18,981). These relatively small increases are not surprising following the economic crash and the very limited house building that has taken place since then.

Within the Western Region there was an actual decline in housing stock in three of the counties, (see Table 1 below), Roscommon, -0.5% (-173), Sligo -0.2% (-51) and Leitrim -0.2% (-36), indicating some houses have been removed from the housing stock, though the data does not tell us whether these are ‘ghost estates’ or not.   Though these are marginal changes, there are also negative declines in just a few other places, Dublin and Limerick cities and Longford. In contrast, within the Region, only Galway city records a significant increase in housing stock – 3.5% – the highest recorded increase across the State.

housing-wr-5

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2011, Census of Population 2016, Preliminary Results.

As the change in housing stock is so closely related to the most recent period of economic growth and decline, it is interesting to look at the figures over the 10 year period, 2006-2016. This period marks the time immediately before the peak of economic growth and growth in housing supply and the economic crash following this, culminating in the current period, marked by a return to economic growth.

Between 2006 and 2016, there was an increase in housing stock of 16.4% in the Western Region and this compares to 14.3% nationally. Within the Region, some counties had a very significant increase in housing stock, Donegal (20.2%), Leitrim (19.1%) and Roscommon (16.9%), highlighting the particularly strong growth rates in the West.

The evident contrast between the growth in supply in the earlier period and the limited growth and contraction in the latter period highlights the difference in housing activity over the periods.

It is worth noting that even with the limited growth in housing stock in the latter period, the growth in the Western Region between 2006 and 2016 of 16.4% is still nearly than double the population growth in the Region over the same period – 8.6%.

Looking at the period 2011-2016, the percentage change in both population and households by county is presented in Figure 7 below. While Donegal lost population (-1.5%) it still experienced a small increase in the number of households (0.8%).

fig-7-change-in-pop-households-chart

What are the vacancy rates in the region?

The vacancy rate measures the share of the housing stock in each county that is recorded as a vacant dwelling by the Census enumerators.  The average vacancy rate in the Western Region in 2016 was 21.7%, marginally lower than in 2006 (22.8%).

 Fig. 2: Vacancy rates in western counties, Western Region and State, 2011 and 2016

vacancy-rates-11-16-wrSource: CSO, Census of Population 2011, Census of Population 2016, Preliminary Results.

In total Leitrim (29.5%), Donegal (28.2%) and Mayo (24.0%) had the highest vacancy rates in the region, while Galway city (10.5%) had the lowest.   All counties in the Western Region experienced a slight decrease in their vacancy rates between 2011 and 2016.

 Nationally, the average vacancy rate in 2016 was 19.9%, a decrease on the 2011 rate of 22.8%. At a national level, Leitrim and Donegal have the highest vacancy rates in the country and this was also the case in 2011. Figure 8 below shows the vacancy rate by county in 2016.

fig-8-vacant-dwellings

These data, though preliminary highlight a couple of important themes.

The first is that it is very clear that there are huge differences in housing stock and vacancy rates across the country.

There are also differences within Regions, for example though most counties in the Western Region report negative or less than 1 % growth in housing stock, Galway city on the other hand had the highest growth in housing stock across the country.

This analysis also highlights the value of a five yearly census. As Table 1 illustrates the difference evident in the last 5 years, compared to the previous 5 years is particularly evident in examining the changes to the hosing stock.

Deirdre Frost

Planning For Regional Development- Book now for the Annual Conference of the Regional Studies Association Irish Branch

The Annual Conference of the Regional Studies Association Irish Branch (in conjunction with NUI Galway and the Western Development Commission) will be held on Friday 9 September 2016 at NUI Galway.

The conference is titled “Planning for Regional Development: The National Planning Framework as a Roadmap for Ireland’s Future?”.  The conference is timely with work underway on the new National Planning Framework and its associated Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies.  These will have significant impacts on the future spatial pattern of development in Ireland.

The conference will examine best international practice in spatial planning and consider what should be at the heart of Irish regional development and planning policy.  It will ask what vision for Ireland should underpin local, regional and national development over the next 30 years.

Three international speakers have been invited to provide a European perspective on Spatial Planning and to give insights into experiences in other countries.

These are:

  • Prof. Leonie Janssen-Jansen, Professor of Land Use Planning, Wageningen University, The Netherlands
  • Mr. Peter Mehlbye,  former Director of the EU ESPON Programme and former advisor to the Department of the Environment on the National Spatial Strategy
  • Prof. Markku Sotarauta, University of Tampere, Finland

In addition Paul Hogan (Department of Housing, Planning, Community and Local Government) will give an update on progress with the National Planning Framework.

The provisional programme with additional details on the conference venue can be downloaded here.

Registration
You can register for the conference online at
rsa-ireland.weebly.com/register.html

Please note that there is a €70 fee for attending the conference and this includes lunch. Payments are processed via PayPal.

WDClogo2 DHPCLGlogoNUIGlogo

whittaker

Jobs Growth Continues but Slowing in BMW regions

The latest CSO Quarterly National Household Survey was released yesterday. This data refers to the period Quarter 2 (April-June) 2016.

The overall picture is quite positive with the number of people at work increasing by 2.9% in the past year (Q2 2015–Q2 2016).  This is almost identical to employment growth in the previous year, 3% between Q2 2014 and Q2 2015.  There seems to be a steady continuation of jobs growth nationally.

Regional patterns of employment growth

As with all national data, if you drill down to regional level you find some interesting differences.  Fig. 1 shows employment growth in each of the eight NUTS3 Irish regions over the past two years. In the most recent year (Q2 2015-Q2 2016) regional employment growth ranged from 4.3% in Dublin to just 0.5% in the Midland region.  While Dublin, the Mid-East, South East and Mid-West all had higher growth than the national average, employment in the Midland, South-West and West regions increased by under 1%.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in number of people in employment by NUTS3 region, Q2 2014–Q2 2015 and Q2 2015–Q2 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Fig. 1: Percentage change in number of people in employment by NUTS3 region, Q2 2014-Q2 2015 and Q2 2015-Q2 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Compared with a year previously (Q2 2014-Q2 2015), Dublin, the Mid-East and Mid-West experienced higher growth; in all other regions it was lower. The Greater Dublin Area (Dublin and Mid-East) in particular experienced far greater jobs growth from 2015 to 2016 than it had the previous year.  The Border and South-West meanwhile had very substantially lower growth.

When examining statistics at a smaller scale of course, they are more prone to fluctuation across years e.g. a major factory closure or opening in a year can strongly influence growth/decline in a region. However, there does seem to be a general pattern of some slow-down in jobs growth in the Border, Midland and West (BMW) region, as well as the South-West, over the past year.

Regional unemployment rates

In Q2 2016, unemployment rates ranged from 10.8% in the South East to 6.9% in the neighbouring Mid-East (Fig. 2). The three BMW regions also had unemployment rates above the national average.

Fig. 2: ILO unemployment rate in NUTS3 regions, Q2 2016 (not seasonally adjusted). Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Fig. 2: ILO unemployment rate in NUTS3 regions, Q2 2016 (not seasonally adjusted). Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Tracking unemployment rates since 2007 (Fig. 3) it is clear that the South East and Midland regions have consistently shown the highest unemployment rates, though they are following the general pattern of decline since 2012.  The Mid-east, Mid-West and South West showed the steepest declines in their unemployment rates over the past year.  The first two also had strong employment growth (see Fig. 1 above).

Fig. 3: ILO unemployment rates in NUTS3 regions, Q2 2007 – Q2 2016 (not seasonally adjusted). Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Fig. 3: ILO unemployment rates in NUTS3 regions, Q2 2007 – Q2 2016 (not seasonally adjusted). Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Decline in numbers in unemployment

The Border and Dublin regions showed practically no change in their unemployment rates between 2015 and 2016 (see Fig. 3 above). The reason for this is clear from Fig. 4. Dublin was the only region that actually experienced an increase in the number of people unemployed.  The very strong growth in Dublin’s labour force over the past year (4.4%) led to both strong growth in the numbers at work and also increased unemployment.

The Border had the smallest decline in the number of unemployed.  This compares with a very substantial fall the previous year. These two regions, plus the West, were the only ones with a smaller improvement in unemployment in this period than the previous.

There were large unemployment declines in the South West, Mid-West and Mid-East reflected in their sharply declining unemployment rates (see Fig. 3 above).  Apart from the first, these regions also showed strong employment increases (see Fig. 1 above) indicating that a significant cause of the fall in unemployment was likely movement into employment.  In the case of the South West however, it had relatively low employment growth ( see Fig. 1 above). This region had the largest fall in the size of its labour force in this period (-1.9%), so an important factor in its unemployment decline was likely unemployed people leaving the labour force (e.g. moving out of the region, retiring, returning to education).

Fig. 4: Percentage change in number of people unemployed by NUTS3 region, Q2 2014–Q2 2015 and Q2 2015–Q2 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Fig. 4: Percentage change in number of people unemployed by NUTS3 region, Q2 2014–Q2 2015 and Q2 2015–Q2 2016. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q2 2016

Conclusion

The latest QNHS figures show a continuing positive labour market trend nationally and regionally. There are indications however of some slowing down of employment growth in the BMW regions as well as relatively lower falls in unemployment compared with some other areas of the country.   This is reflected in persistently higher unemployment rates in the Midland, Border and West regions, as well as the South East. The Greater Dublin Area (Dublin and Mid-East) has shown particularly strong jobs growth in the past year, though Dublin’s expanding labour force has meant that this jobs growth has not led to declining unemployment.

The regional data shows that Ireland has a complex labour market with many factors influencing regions’ performance.  When the full Census 2016 results are published next year, it will be possible to drill down to a far smaller spatial scale to examine labour market patterns within these NUTS3 regions and the different experiences of rural areas, small towns and villages, large urban centres and the cities.

Pauline White

Local Finance for Regional Development?

While we are all very conscious of the centralised nature of government in Ireland it is interesting to compare the levels and types of funding for local services, investment and development available here and in other OECD countries.  The availability of local government finance is an important prerequisite for bottom up regional development initiatives.

In the recently published OECD Regions at a Glance 2016,   one chapter focuses on ‘Subnational Government Finance for Regional Development’ and examines the type of spending and investment, revenues and responsibilities at regional and local (or subnational) levels.

The term subnational government is not one we would commonly use in Ireland (the OECD term covers federal, regional and local government) as local government is practically the only form of subnational government.  However, for consistency with the OECD, and for comparison with OECD members, in this post the term subnational government (SNG) is used.

Subnational government spending in the OECD

Subnational government expenditure in the OECD as a whole in 2014 accounted for 17% of OECD members GDP and 40% of total public expenditure.  The average SNG per capita expenditure was $6,450.  Figures for Ireland differ significantly from this, with no federal level, very limited regional government expenditure (except through the regional assemblies) and  limited responsibility and spending by  local government.  In Ireland 9.4% of total public expenditure is by SNG and this amounted to $1,780 per capita while public expenditure as a whole was $18,895 per capita in 2014.

In other countries in the last twenty years (1995-2014) there has been a trend towards decentralisation (to local government) and a transfer of responsibility for sectors such as education, health, social protection and economic development to SNG level.  In contrast, in Ireland there has been a fall in SNG expenditure of as a percentage of total public expenditure (-9.5%) and a fall of 2.7% as a percentage of GDP and so a trend to recentralisation of expenditure.

Spending by economic function

Ireland SNG expenditure shows a very different pattern of spending by economic function to that in many other OECD countries, in part as a consequence of the limited functions of SNG.

Looking at subnational expenditure by economic function indicates the importance of SNGs in each area (these figures are for 2013).  Overall for OECD countries Education and Health represent the major sectors of SNG expenditure (on average 25% of SNG expenditure is on Education and 17% for Health.  In Ireland education accounts for 13% of expenditure.

In Ireland what is termed economic affairs expenditure (transport, communications and economic interventions) account for 22% compared to 14% for the OECD as a whole, though it should again be remembered that this is a larger proportion of a relatively small overall expenditure.

Housing and community amenities also accounted for a higher proportion of the SNG expenditure in Ireland (15 %) compared to 3% for the OECD as a whole.  This includes functions such as supply of potable water, public lighting and housing.  In future with the establishment of Irish Water and the centralising of this expenditure this figure is likely to fall.

Finally, and perhaps surprisingly, environmental protection accounted for 12% of SNG expenditure in Ireland compare to 2.6% for the OECD 28[1].

Subnational government investment

In most OECD countries SNGs play a key role in public investment (in federal countries in particular), but while SNG investment was 1.9% of GDP  in the OECD34 and SNGs accounted for 59% of this (53% in the EU28) but in Ireland SNG investment is 0.7%  of GDP and 37 % of public investment.   SNG investment in Ireland was $365 per capita (of $980 total public investment per capita) compared to SNG investment of $730 in the OECD34.

Economic Affairs accounted for more than 45% of such investment (See Figure 1 below) and was relatively higher than the EU and OECD average.  Transport (road, railway and other transport options) account for most of this.

Figure 1: types of sub national investment in Ireland, EU and OECD 2013

SNG investment

Source: OECD regions at a glance Fig. 3.12 1 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933363696

The average annual change in SNG investment in Ireland between 2007 and 2014 is a dramatic illustration of the impact of the economic crisis on investment.  SNG investment in Ireland fell by 16.7% while the OECD as a whole remained relatively stable, and there was a fall in the EU of 1.6% (see Figure 2).

Figure 2: Annual average change in subnational government investment between 2007 and 2014

change in SNG inv

Source: OECD regions at a glance Fig. 3.111 2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888933363685

Subnational Revenue and Debt

The two main sources of SNG revenue are taxes and grants and subsidies.  In Ireland taxes accounted for 20% of SNG revenue (44% in OECD33) while grants and subsidies accounted for 50% of revenue in Ireland (37% OECD).  Other revenue sources include local public service charges and property taxes.

Local government in Ireland has relatively low levels of debt, accounting for only 3.1% of total public debt compared to 16% in the EU28 and 24% in the OECD 32.  Most of this debt in Ireland is in the form of loans (81%).

Conclusion

While there is an on-going discourse in regional development analysis and policy on regions making the most of their assets and opportunities and on ‘bottom up’ drives for change, the very low levels of funding available at local and regional government level in Ireland to invest and drive regional development goals, which have been locally developed, is clearly a difficulty.  On the more positive side, much of the sub national funding for expenditure and investment is at least currently focused on economic development initiatives.

Helen McHenry

[1] OECD country numbers vary according to the availability of data.  In most cases the largest available has been chosen for comparison.

Call for Papers: Annual Conference of RSA-Irish Branch in partnership with WDC & NUI Galway

The WDC is delighted to be partnering with the Regional Studies Association (RSA) Irish branch and NUI Galway for this year’s RSA Annual Conference.  It will take place on Friday 9 September at NUI Galway.

This year’s theme is Planning for Regional Development: The National Planning Framework as a Roadmap for Ireland’s Future?

As the process of developing a new National Planning Framework – to replace the National Spatial Strategy – seems to be gathering pace after the hiatus caused by the election, it seems appropriate to focus on the NPF at this year’s conference.  The approach taken to the NPF and the closely linked Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies, should have significant impacts on the future spatial pattern of development in Ireland.  How much of an impact will very much depend on the implementation systems that are put in place.

The conference will examine best international practice in spatial planning and consider what should be at the heart of Irish regional development and planning policy.  It will ask what vision for Ireland should underpin local, regional and national development over the next 30 years.

WDC_LOGO NUI_Galway_LOGO

 

 

 

Call for Papers:

A call for papers is now open. We are seeking presentations from policymakers, academia and practitioners active in the field of regional studies.  Post-graduate students are encouraged to submit.

Potential themes for presentations include:

  • The new National Planning Framework
  • One island, two jurisdictions
  • Visioning Ireland
  • The NPF and Governance
  • The NPF and Housing
  • Regional Spatial and Economic Strategies
  • Local and regional economic forums
  • New approaches to regional development
  • International comparator cases

Other contributions dealing with the topic of regional studies are invited and will be included in focussed sessions.

Submissions:

Proposals for presentations (in the form of a 250 word abstract) should be submitted through the Regional Studies Association – Irish Branch online portal by 31st July 2016. Submissions should be forwarded to chris.vanegeraat@nuim.ie

Further details on the conference will be updated on the Regional Studies Association, Irish Branch website