Rural poverty rates higher than urban rates

The CSO released the latest data on Income and Living Conditions on 26th November. The headline figures indicate a rise in incomes – increasing by 3.5% between 2013 and 2014, which in turn was higher than the figure in 2012. This is in line with other economic indicators such as continuing economic growth, employment growth and decreasing unemployment, all of which suggest that the turnaround in the economy is now well established.

At-Risk-of-Poverty

However, within the same CSO release, the data show that the at-risk-of-poverty rate[1] increased from 15.2% to 16.3% in the same period. It may be that the benefits of the return to growth have yet to ‘trickle down’ and a reduction in poverty rates will be evident in later data. Nonetheless examining the poverty rates over a longer period shows how stubbornly high the poverty rates are.

The chart below shows the at-risk-of-poverty rate between 2004 and 2014, showing urban and rural rates separately. This period was economically very volatile with a ‘boom’ and ‘bust’, ‘full’ employment followed by rapidly rising unemployment.

at risk of poverty rates

Nationally the at-risk-of-poverty rate in 2004 was 19.4% or just under one-fifth of the population. This declined to 14.1% in 2009, before rising again to 16.3% in 2014.

Rural poverty, is often considered more hidden or less visible than urban poverty. Comparing urban[2] and rural areas[3], the at-risk-of-poverty rate has been consistently higher in rural areas over the last 10 years, though there is some evidence that the difference is narrowing. In 2004 the difference in the-at-risk-of-poverty rate between urban and rural rates was 7.5 percentage points, in 2014 it was 4.6 percentage points.

Consistent Poverty

 

The other commonly used measure of poverty, the consistent poverty rate[4] is depicted in the chart below. The trend here shows that nationally between 2005 and 2008, rates were declining from 7% to 4.2% and thereafter rising to 8.2% in 2013, and 8% in 2014, still higher than the rate in 2004.

While the at-risk-of poverty rate has been consistently higher in rural areas compared to urban areas, the rural urban pattern is more erratic when examining the consistent poverty rate. Between 2004 and 2007 there was a higher rate of consistent poverty in urban areas compared to rural. From 2007 to 2013 the rates in both rural and urban areas were rising and roughly comparable. Since 2012 a new trend seems to be emerging where rural rates are rising whereas urban rates are in decline. Since 2013 there may be convergence in rates emerging again, though the rural rate remains higher than the urban rate.

Consistent poverty

The urban-rural patterns poverty rates seem to provide further evidence that the recovery is stronger in urban areas, or at least the impact on poverty reduction is greater there.

The release also provides data on poverty rates at a regional level.  Analysis of consistent poverty rates by region, which will be influenced by rural-urban patterns, shows that the rate for the Border, Midlands and Western region was 10.8% compared with 7.0% for the Southern and Eastern region in 2014. The at-risk of poverty-rate was also higher in the Border, Midlands and Western region compared to the Southern and Eastern region, 20.5% and 14.8% respectively. A previous WDC Insights blog examining CSO Income data (September 25th) titled Regional Disparities are Widening examines regional differences further.

As economic growth continues, it will be important to ensure that the downward trend in poverty rates continues across both rural and urban areas, as well as across all regions. While rural poverty may be less visible, it is no less real and needs to be addressed. It will be important to monitor these trends to see the extent to which they change in 2015 and beyond and to ensure that policy responses are effective in addressing both urban and rural poverty.

Deirdre Frost

[1] The at-risk-of-poverty rate identifies the proportion of individuals who are considered to be in danger of poverty. It is calculated as the percentage of persons with an equivalised disposable income of less than 60% of the national median income.

[2] Urban is defined as centres with a population density greater than 1,000.

[3] Rural is defined as centres with a population density of 999 or less and rural areas in counties.

[4] Consistent poverty is defined as being at-risk-of poverty and living in a household deprived of two of eleven basic deprivation items.

Public Policy Priorities in 2016 and Beyond

A seminar entitled Ireland’s Policy Priorities after the next General Election, on November 2nd provided a welcome break from the recent talk of Budget giveaways and election promises. Organised by the Policy Institute, Trinity College Dublin, in association with the Public Policy Advisors Network, the aim was to discuss what are and what should be the policy priorities of the next Government.

Some interesting contributions included that from Dan O’Brien, in which he examined medium term policy challenges, noting the ageing demographics generally as well as a sharp decline, over the last five years, in the number of those aged in their twenties. This is attributed to the birth rate as well as emigration and the ageing of that cohort of East European migrants that came here before the crash.

Another key policy theme which is likely to become a policy priority is Ireland’s response to the EU’s 2030 energy and climate change targets. The recent recession, which gave rise to a reduction in emissions (purely because of a contraction in economic activity), relegated the urgency of this policy priority. The return to economic growth will ensure that this is likely to become a more important policy priority. It was proposed that the next Government should appoint a senior Minister with responsibility for the low carbon agenda.

Considering the economics of the next programme for Government, Stephen Kinsella and Ronan Lyons examined the patterns of national economic growth since 2002 – characterised initially from 2002-2007 by a rapidly growing economy, followed by the economic crisis of 2007-2011 which in turn was followed by a period of readjusting public spending and restoring economic confidence in 2011-2016.

It is suggested that the period from 2016 could be that of ‘coming full circle’, with a rapidly growing economy and a need to manage expectations. In learning from our past mistakes, fiscal policy is key and the authors advocate the use of the concept of the Social Return on Investment (SROI). This differs from the current cost based accounting approach to public spending to a more holistic economic approach where the wider costs and benefits of a proposal would be measured. In doing, so the full implications of a cut are captured e.g. €100 cut to caregivers allowance, which then drives people into the public health system thereby negating any ‘savings’. This is arguably a more useful way of evaluating public policy instruments, allowing a more holistic measure of the effects of policies.

Examining Local Government and Spatial Planning, Seán Ó’Riordáin and John Martin point to the need for a new  long-term spatial plan for Ireland (the National Planning Framework) and the need to learn lessons from the National Spatial Strategy. The role of local government in supporting long term development of both rural and urban areas needs to be addressed.

Bringing the concept of Social Return on Investment to the debate on spatial planning, regional, rural and urban development might help advance this debate and the policy choices which arise. In considering investment decisions to support development of the regions, both urban and rural, measuring the Social Return on Investment might lead to different outcomes when considering cuts to or additional investment in various services in regional and rural locations.

For example, decisions on the closure of public services offices in regional and rural locations such as post offices, government outreach offices, garda stations etc. are usually based on cutting operational expenditure, including staff costs or economies of scale.  These cuts can deliver immediate financial savings for the organisation but this narrow view does not take account of the accumulated long term impact on the local economy, the overall needs of society and the disabling impact on local communities.

Taking account of the social rate of return allows for a more holistic economic and societal perspective, rather than solely on the efficiencies and financial savings generated for the individual organisation.  In doing so, the wider impacts beyond a particular locality can be captured, for example, unemployment and migration from rural areas and other regional centres can add to already significant pressures on housing and transport services in the capital. This in turn requires additional investment in infrastructure and services, which is often more expensive to deliver in congested urban areas. Examining all costs and benefits and the social rate of return could help us to make better, more informed choices.

 

The presentations are available at the PPAN website http://www.ppan.ie/latest-news/

Deirdre Frost

Realising the Hidden Potential of Ireland’s Towns

One third of Irish people live in towns. However, over many years towns have not received the level of attention and support necessary to ensure a sustainable future in the face of change.

In Kilkenny last week [1] the Heritage Council hosted an excellent conference on the potential of Ireland’s rural towns and villages.

Speakers discussed how the historic urban characters of many of our main streets are losing vitality and value through under-use or over-development. But the conference had a broader focus than heritage, examining the role of Irish towns and their activities in retail and as places for people to live, work and visit.

One of the refreshing aspects of the conference was that it considered towns and villages of all sizes and noted the role they have all played and continue to play in our society and economy. See here for more details of the conference.

This event was the culmination of two years’ work on the nature and role of Irish towns and what needs to be done to keep them vital and alive. As part of this the Heritage Council put forward six policy proposals for Ireland’s towns which are summarised here:

  1. An Irish Urban Policy should be developed which sets out to protect the strategic social, cultural, economic and environmental role of Irish towns of all sizes.
  1. Extend the Living City initiative to the historic core area of all Irish towns and develop fiscal measures specifically to encourage people to live and do business in towns.
  1. Reintroduce incentives for ‘Living over the Shop’ and work to ensure that regulatory burden that can deter such developments is eased.
  1. Ensure that the strategic economic role of towns in rural economic development is reflected in future funding programmes.
  1. There should be further research on the characteristics and role of towns and the barriers to their development.
  1. A Rural Towns and Villages network should be established to provide support and funding for community initiatives to revitalise towns.

Some of the background to the Heritage Council work in the area is here and the full details of their policy proposals will be available shortly.

And Finally…

Anne Phelan, T.D. and Minister of State[2] spoke at the conference and welcomed the Heritage Council work in the area. She also gave some insight into the ongoing rural policy process.

A Rural Charter is currently being drawn up, outlining the role for rural Ireland in the future, a new rural White Paper will be prepared in 2016 and a Rural Forum is also to be developed.

This focus on rural needs and rural policy is very welcome and we look forward to it coming together to provide stimulus and direction for future rural development.

 

Helen McHenry

 

[1] 5th November 2015

[2] Minister of State at the Departments of Agriculture, Food and Marine and Transport, Tourism and Sport with Special Responsibility for Rural Economic Development (implementation of the CEDRA Report) and Rural Transport

County Incomes and Regional GDP 2012- WDC Report published

The WDC has just published Regional Income and Output-An Analysis of County Incomes and Regional, 2012 which examines income data for the Western Region counties and GVA figures for the regions, looking at the most recent data from the CSO County Incomes and Regional GDP and trends over time.

The headline figures are:

  • The household disposable income per person in the Western Region was €17,735 in 2012, 91.1% of the State average, which was €19,468.
  • In 2012 the highest level of disposable income in the seven Western Region counties was in Galway at €18,890.  This is 97% of the State average.  The lowest was in Donegal at €15,921 (81.8% of the State average).
  • The gap between the average household disposable income in the Western Region and the State in 2012 was 91.1%. Over the long term there has been a narrowing of the gap in disposable income with the Western Region 89.1% of the State average in 2000 and 84.3% in 1995.
  • In 2012 the GVA per person in the West region was €28,256 and €19,016 in the Border region.  These compare with a State figure of €34,308.
  • GVA in 2012 was still below that of 2007 in all regions except the West, where recovery in GVA has been strong.  It was still very significantly below that of 2007 in the Border and Midland regions.
  • The index of GVA (2012, State=100), for the Border region was 55.4 and the West region 82.4.  There has been a widening of disparities among regions since the recovery began.

Two short WDC Insights papers (each 2 pages) have also been published, one highlighting key points in relation to County Incomes and the other examining Trends in Regional GDP.

Regional Income and Output- A WDC ReportRegl income Output report image

County level data on household and per capita disposable incomes is released every year by the CSO alongside data on Gross Value Added (GVA) at a regional level.  This report provides a summary of key figures and trends. County Income data allows us to compare incomes among counties in the Western Region and to examine trends over time. The GVA data at regional level is important for tracking regional output levels and trends as well as changes among regions.

Download the report Regional Income and Output-2012 (PDF 1.5MB)

WDC Insights Trends in County Incomes in the Western RegionInsights inocme pic

This short WDC Insights highlights some of the trends in County Income in the Western  Region which were examined in the report Regional Income and Output. The county income data allows useful comparison among counties and show trends over time.

Download WDC Insights-Trends in County Incomes-Oct 2015 (PDF 0.2MB)

WDC Insights Trends in Regional Output

This WDC Insights presents key data and analysis of trends in regional GVA. This provides a measure Insights GDP pictureof the output and economic activity of each region and allows comparison among regions in Ireland and internationally and shows the relative changes among regions over time.

Download WDC Insights- Trends in regional GDP_Oct 2015 (PDF 0.2MB)

 

 

Helen McHenry

 

An Abundance of Rural Policy?

It seems that rural policies are like buses, nothing comes for a long time and then three arrive almost together. The REDZ Pilot Scheme allocations were announced by Minister of State Ann Phelan, a Town and Village Renewal Scheme was announced by the Taoiseach Enda Kenny at the National Ploughing Championships last week as part of the new Capital Investment Programme and finally, not a new scheme, but a reminder from Minister Coveney of the allocations for the next seven years under the Rural Development Programme.

The REDZ Pilot Scheme

Minister of State for Rural Affairs, Ann Phelan has just announced the allocation of €3.7 under the REDZ Pilot scheme to 26 pilot projects (rather than the 18 envisaged in the call for applications).

A list of the 51 projects allocated funding is available but there is no detail of the projects themselves. They are listed by REDZ title and it must be assumed that some of these projects are across two or more REDZ combining to make the 26 projects noted by Minister Phelan. There are 2 projects worth more than €200,000 (Drogheda and the Shannon Blueway) and a further 11 worth more than €100,000. Another 21 projects were allocated between €50,000 and €100,000 and 17 projects were under €50,000.

The press statement notes the aims and objectives of the REDZ pilot are to complement the objectives of the Rural Development Programme 2014-2020 (RDP) as well as addressing the priorities identified for LEADER (poverty reduction, social inclusion and economic development of rural areas). Pending the success of the pilot initiative a call for proposals for a more extensive REDZ initiative under the LEADER elements of the RDP will take place during 2016 (see link above) and it seems €5m has been set aside for this (see below).

Rural Towns and Villages Renewal Scheme

How will the Rural Towns and Villages Renewal Scheme included in the new capital plan Building on Recovery Infrastructure and Capital Investment 2016-2021 announced by the Taoiseach at the Ploughing last week complement the REDZ scheme?  Here are the details from Building on Recovery:

The Exchequer will provide €5 million in 2016 through the Department of Environment, Community and Local Government as part of a new €30 million investment in rural towns and villages. The new scheme will support the revitalisation of rural towns and villages with the aim of improving the living and working environment in rural communities and enhancing their potential to support increased economic activity into the future.[1]

This scheme will be administered by the DECLG and operated by the local authorities (some more detail here[2]in a joint press release by Ministers Kelly and Phelan). It seems there will also be a regional development element in this scheme:

Included within this allocation is €1 million each year in 2016 and 2017 to establish a Strategic Regional Development Office in the Western Region under the Western Development Commission (WDC). This will co-ordinate the implementation of recommendations of the Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas (CEDRA) in the region. This will be a pilot initiative and, if successful, could be replicated in other regions. [1].

The Rural Development Programme (2014-2020)

Finally, the Rural Development Programme (co-funded by the EU’s European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD) and the national exchequer) will have an average spend of €313 million of EU funding annually (an aggregate sum of €2.19 billion over the 7-year Programme lifespan). The allocation for each measure was provided in a written answer to a parliamentary question by Minister Coveney and a recently published summary booklet provides detail in a format more accessible than the full programme document.

While titled the Rural Development Programme, this is effectively an agriculture support programme with one measure, LEADER, a broader rural development scheme. (The measures in the RDP are listed in the footnote below [3]).

Measure 19 ‘Support for LEADER local development’ has been allocated €250m for the programming period. Of this allocation €10m will be spent on ‘Cooperation Projects[4], €15m on the Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine Artisan Foods Initiative; a €5m reserve has been allocated to the REDZ Initiative and the final €220m will be divided between the 28 sub regional areas (see full details here). Local Development strategies are being prepared under the following themes:

  • Rural Economic Development / Enterprise Development and Job Creation (incorporating Rural Tourism, Enterprise Development, Broadband, Rural Towns).
  • Social inclusion (building community capacity, training, animation and Rural Youth initiatives).
  • Rural Environment.

A new National Rural network will be established and funded under this Programme.

So where are we with Rural Policy?

It’s great that investments are being made to stimulate rural renewal and rural development. There have been many calls for it and much analysis (see CEDRA for example). Let’s hope that these schemes will be good value for money, focused on current policy objectives and, importantly, that they will achieve the most worthwhile outcomes for the people who are living in rural areas.

To return to the bus simile, we’ll have to have faith that those buses are taking rural policy where we want it to go.

 

 

Helen McHenry

 

[1]  Building on Recovery Infrastructure and Capital Investment 2016-2021 P 39

[2] http://www.environ.ie/en/Community/RuralDevelopment/News/MainBody,42790,en.htm

[3] 3.1 Measure 1 – Knowledge transfer and information actions

3.2 Measure 2 – Advisory services, farm management and farm relief services

3.3 Measure 4 – Investments in physical assets

3.4 Measure 7 – Basic services and village renewal in rural areas- Ireland 2014 – 2020. From the title this would seem to be focused on non agricultural rural development, but in actual fact it is “a complementary measure to GLAS, intended to encourage a holistic approach which increases understanding and management of both the natural and built/cultural heritage present on individual farms. Accordingly, participation in GLAS is the prime eligibility condition.”[4]

3.5 Measure 10 – Agri-environment-climate

3.6 Measure 11 – Organic farming

3.7 Measure 13 – Payments to areas facing natural or other specific constraints

3.8 Measure 16 – Co-operation

3.9 Measure 19 – Support for LEADER local development (CLLD – community-led local development)

[4] Projects where two or more LAGS work together, these projects can be national or international with the 2014-2020 programme placing a particular emphasis on Irish cross border cooperation

Regional & Rural Development at the National Economic Dialogue

A background paper on ‘Regional and Rural Development – Economic recovery for the whole country’ was prepared for a breakout session at last week’s National Economic Dialogue (16-17 July, Dublin Castle).

It set out a few key questions:

  • What can be done to ensure that the benefits of recovery are fairly distributed throughout the country – urban and rural and throughout all the regions?
  • How can we maximise the contribution of both regional and rural development to both a strong economy and a fair society?
  • What are the key environmental and sustainable development challenges?

It will be interesting to see the priority given to regional and rural development given the competing economic and social priorities discussed over the two days. The summary of the discussions is due to be published later this week here.

The background papers for all the breakout sessions are available here.

Breakout 1 Competing Economic and Social Priorities (PDF)

Breakout 2 Economic Growth and Equity in Tax Policy (PDF)

Breakout 3 Putting People First – Economic and Fiscal Policy for our Demographic Outlook (PDF)

Breakout 4 Structural and Labour Market Reform – Opportunities for Economic Growth (PDF)

Breakout 5 Productivity and Skills (PDF)

Breakout 6 Regional and Rural Development Economic recovery for the whole country (PDF)

Breakout 7 Working for the best preparing for the worst (PDF)

Breakout 8 Being a Small Open Economy (PDF)

Pauline White

Next Generation Broadband Deployment – Lessons from Australia

As the Department for Communications, Marine and Natural Resources in Ireland prepares the National Broadband Plan Intervention Strategy, it is useful to consider some lessons which can be learned from elsewhere. The experience of Australia is instructive, in part illustrating some of the pitfalls.

  1. Ambitious targets with ambitious deadlines

In 2009 the Australian Government announced an ambitious programme to deliver fibre to the premises (FTTP) to 93% of Australian premises (residential and commercial). This was a very ambitious target given the country’s very low population density (3% compared to Ireland’s 67%). The remaining 7% of the population, in the very remote parts of Australia, were to be served by satellite and wireless technologies.

The original deadline for completion was within six years (2015). By the end of 2013 just 3% of premises were connected.

Following an extensive review in late 2013, a change in direction and new targets were announced[1].

  • Instead of 93% FTTP, it is more likely to be 22% FTTP, the exact technology (and therefore the actual %) will be determined on area basis.
  • Fibre to the node (FTTN) to 71% approximately of premises, with the remaining 4% and 3% fixed wireless and satellite respectively.
  • Lower speeds (50Mbps rather than 100+ Mbps download) resulting from the higher rate of FTTN connection rather than FTTP.
  1. Increasing costs – to the exchequer

The original plan in 2009, was forecast to cost AUD $44 billion (Australian dollars). In 2013, the estimated cost increased to AUD $73 billion – 65% greater than the original forecast.

  1. Higher costs – to the consumer

There is concern that the retail costs will be much higher than the cost of services currently available, estimated at an extra AUD $43 per month[2]. This will influence the take-up of next generation services. Broadband is now accepted as a basic utility and access to it is considered necessary for participation in society and the economy. However as the recent water protests in Ireland demonstrate, basic utilities should not be expensive. The concept of ‘Willingness to Pay’ is a key element of the pricing structure.

From an Irish perspective, it will be interesting to see from the trials of next generation broadband (in Cavan and Mayo for example), to what extent consumers will revert to a basic service at a cheaper price rather than paying extra for a premium product. It is also likely that the consumers in the pilot areas will be more receptive to paying for a premium service which they currently access, compared to those yet to experience the benefits of the premium next generation service.

  1. What are consumers looking for?

There is a declining value to additional broadband speeds. Part of the Australian review included an assessment of the growth in demand for faster broadband speeds. A key finding is that while the Willingness to Pay for speed may grow rapidly at low speeds (less than  40 Mbps download), for most people the Willingness to Pay is not expected to grow at all for high speeds (greater than 50 Mbps)[3].

A related finding is that consumers would prefer an increase to their current speeds quickly, rather than to wait longer to gain a higher level of speed. The Australian Government are now looking at prioritising delivery to those areas which are poorly served and this is consistent with the findings of the Independent Review. http://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/documents/soe-shareholder-minister-letter.pdf.

In an Irish context an increase in speed for example from 5Mbps to 10 Mbps is worth more to consumers than an increase from 20Mbps to 25Mbps. The Australian experience also suggests it would be preferable to rollout delivery to those areas with poor and inadequate broadband first.

  1. Don’t play politics with important infrastructure

In Australia, the different ruling parties have taken different policy positions on the rollout of next generation broadband. A change of Government can (and has in Australia) led to a change in policy on delivery and this can create huge uncertainly for investors as well as consumers. Given the scale of investment, the deployment of next generation broadband will generally take many years and beyond the lifetime of one Government. It is therefore important that Government policy is well considered and implemented consistently and not compromised by the electoral cycle.

Deirdre Frost

[1] https://www.communications.gov.au/sites/g/files/net301/f/Cost-Benefit_Analysis_-_FINAL_-_For_Publication.pdf, http://spectrum.ieee.org/telecom/internet/the-rise-and-fall-of-australias-44-billion-broadband-project/

[2] https://www.communications.gov.au/sites/g/files/net301/f/Final_Ministerial_Statement.pdf

[3]  p. 16 https://www.communications.gov.au/sites/g/files/net301/f/Cost-Benefit_Analysis_-_FINAL_-_For_Publication.pdf

Next Generation Rural Broadband – When and How Much?

On the 11th May, WDC attended the official launch, by An Taoiseach Enda Kenny T.D. and Ministers for Communications and Rural Affairs, of eircom’s Fibre To The Home (FTTH) rural broadband trial in Belcarra, County Mayo. This trial offers broadband speeds of up to 1Gb/s (1,000Mb/s) to rural residents and businesses and demonstrates the value of a fibre to the premises solution.

This is a far cry from the very basic broadband service which was made available under the State supported National Broadband Scheme (NBS) which in theory delivered up to 10Mb/s, but for most users, much less than this.

For most rural residents still trying to survive with basic, intermittent and inadequate broadband speeds, the announcement of a service delivering 1,000Mb/s in a rural area, must seem both frustrating and promising at the same time.

The Government have committed to a basic minimum of 30 Mb/s to all citizens under the National Broadband Plan. However rollout under this state funded scheme has yet to start, with the competition to award the tender to the successful applicant(s) yet to take place. Rollout will not commence until 2016, and all citizens are to be served by 2020.

A few days later, an Taoiseach and Minister for Communications unveiled another fibre to the building project, this time through the joint venture between ESB and Vodafone, called Siro. Siro aims to be Ireland’s first 100% fibre-to-the-building broadband network. This will focus on delivering fibre to the home to fifty regional towns across Ireland.

While both eircom and ESB/Vodafone are making commercial investments in fibre based solutions to urban centres, they are both positioning themselves as the preferred bidder to deliver on the planned Government funded National Broadband Plan to rural areas which will deliver the minimum speed of 30 Mb/s.

These announcements raise interesting questions for the Government funded scheme. While 30 Mb/s is the minimum target for all users, the pilot demonstrates that technically 1,000 MB/s can be delivered to very rural communities. The fibre to the home rural pilot raises the bar as to what speeds might be possible in rural areas. However these will not be commercially funded services and will require state support. The cost of such a fibre based solution and how much will be borne by the state is not clear.

The WDC welcome the developments delivering fibre based solutions to regional and rural locations. However key questions for users have yet to be answered such as when exactly will it be delivered? What speeds are likely to be available in rural areas (it is recognised that 30Mb/s is the minimum) and how much will it cost to fund?

Until the new services are delivered, businesses and citizens will continue to work with inadequate broadband, frustrated in their capacity to communicate with clients and suppliers alike and hampered in their ability to access online services. The priority now is to start rollout under the state funded scheme as soon as possible.

Deirdre Frost

Farmers in the West are getting older

The age profile of farmers in the Western Region is changing. Farmers are getting older and by 2010 for each farmer under 35 there were more than 10 farmers over 55 years of age. This changing age profile has implications for the type and amount of output from farms in the West.

The most recent Census of Agriculture[1] (2010) shows that more than half (56%) of the farmers in the Western Region (31,467) were over the age of 55, with 30% of these over 65 years of age (see Fig. 1). There is a higher proportion of farms in the older age categories now than in the last two decades. In 1991 50% of Western Region farmers were over 55, but by 2000 this had fallen to 44% before increasing again in 2010. While the number of Western Region farmers past retirement age is significant (16,838) the age profile of farmers in the region is similar to that in the EU where 30% of farmers are over 65 and only 10% under 35.

Figure 1: Farmers in the Western Region by Age Category, 2010

pie age fers2 15.04.15

 

There were only 2,999 (5%) farmers aged under 35 in the Western Region in 2010 and fewer younger farmers now than in either 2000, or 1991 (the previous agricultural censuses) when farmers under 35 made up 11% of farmers in the region (Fig. 2).

 

Figure 2: Age Categories of Farmers in Western Region 1991 to 2010

 combi bar age fers15.04.15

Farmers in the Western Region have tended to be older than those in the rest of Ireland (in 1991 43% of farmers in the rest of Ireland were over 55 compared to 50% in the Western Region) but the pattern of change is very similar with fewer farmers in the Rest of Ireland in older age categories in 2000 (37% in Rest of Ireland, 44% in Western Region) and in 2010 when 48% in the Rest of Ireland were aged 55 years and older and 56% in the Western Region.

As mentioned in a previous post, much of the structural change in agriculture occurred between 1991 and 2000, and this was associated with older farmers leaving agriculture and increased opportunity for younger famers to take over farm holdings. There has been less change in farm numbers and size since then and numbers in the older age categories have again increased.

Improved efficiency and productivity on farm tends to be associated with younger farmers with older farmers less likely to invest in their farms. With almost of a third of Western Region famers over the retirement age there are significant implications for the development of agriculture in the region.

 

Helen McHenry

[1] CSO, 2010 Census of Agriculture 2010

The Battle for Rural Ireland – RTE 1

RTE screened a documentary, The Battle for Rural Ireland, on 9th March 2015, to which Deirdre Frost contributed. Presented by Richard Curran, the programme highlights the challenges faced by rural communities and towns, both in the context of the recent recession and the outlook for further rural depopulation. Much of the projected population growth is to occur on the East coast.

You can watch the programme here (available until 30 March).

While urbanisation is not unique to Ireland, the programme shows the effects of population loss on rural areas, in terms of service provision and employment opportunities.

The Battle for Rural Ireland highlights some examples of innovative enterprise development and employment creation in rural areas but ultimately the need for stronger regional and rural policy is clear.

Deirdre Frost