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Census 2016-The Western Region – in pictures!

As further results from Census 2016 are published we get an interesting picture of the Western Region in 2016.  The Western Development Commission (WDC) has today published an infographic on aspects of the Western Region from the Census 2016 Summary Results Part 1.

This is the first in a series of infographics to be published using data from the Census and focusing on the Western Region – the seven counties under the remit of the WDC.  These infographics make key regional statistics available in an easily accessible manner.

In this infographic we show that:

  • The Western Region had 17.4% of the state population in 2016 compared to 30.7% in 1841
  • While the Region’s population only grew by 1% between 2011 and 2016, it grew by over 26% in the last 20 years (between 1996 and 2016)
  • 4% of the Western Region population is female
  • 21,185 people in the Region speak Polish at home.

For more interesting statistics about the Western Region click here 

 

 

 

 

 

Helen McHenry

Census 2016: Profiling Age and Dependency

The most recent release from Census 2016 Profile 2 – Population Distribution and Movements contains data on the age categories of the population by county.  Different age groups have different needs and opportunities so this information is important for planning services for the future and understanding social and economic development issues for our region.

Population in key age categories

The key age categories for analysis are shown in Figure 1 for the Western Region, the Rest of State[1] and for the EU28 (in 2015) along with the projected age structure for the EU 28 in 2080.

The Western Region has 21.1% of its population in the 0-14 age group (the same as the Rest of State), while 15.6% of the EU28 population is in that age category.  The county with highest share of young people in its total population in 2016 was Donegal (22.0%) while the lowest were Mayo and Sligo (20.3%).

 

Figure 1: Population Structure by Age Group

Source:  CSO, 2017, Profile 2 – Population Distribution and Movements  E2022  and Eurostat (demo_pjangroup) and (proj_13npms)

 

The category ‘15-64 years’ covers most of the economically active population.  In the Western Region the Galway has the largest proportion in this category (65.6%) but this is still lower than the average for the Rest of State (65.9%).  Leitrim has the lowest proportion in this age category (61.5%).

There is significant variation among counties in the proportion of the population over 65 years, but all counties have more people in this category (between 13.6% in Galway and 17.5% in Mayo) than the Rest of State (13.0%).  Counties, including those such as Mayo, Roscommon and Leitrim which we consider to have high concentrations of older people, have fewer in the older age categories than the EU 28 (18.9%) which is turn is much less than that projected for the EU 28 (28.7%) by 2080.

Population Pyramids

The population pyramid below (Figure 2) shows the age distribution for the Western Region and the Rest of State in more detail.  A peak of births in 1980 shows up in the 35-39 age category, and another peak in the number of births occurred in 2009[2] and shows up in the 5-9 age category.  The smaller numbers in both the 20-24 age category relates to a falling birth rate in that period while the lower number in the 25-29 age categories, and to some extent in the 30-34 are the result of high outward migration.  The difference in proportions in these age categories for the Western Region and Rest of State indicate greater out migration from the Western Region.

 

Figure 2: Population Pyramind for Western Region and Rest of State, 2016

Source:  CSO, 2017, Profile 2 – Population Distribution and Movements  E2022

 

The Western Region has a higher proportion of it population than the Rest of State in each of the age categories from 45 years and upwards for females and 40 years and upwards for males.  This is also the case for the 10-14 and 15-19 years categories but the more recent higher birth rate in other more rapidly growing counties (especially those surrounding Dublin) means there is a higher proportion of young children in the population in the Rest of State than the Western Region, but these differences are relatively small at the moment.

Dependency ratios

The Dependency ratio (Figure 3) shows the number of older and younger people compared to the working age population (which for this statistic is considered to be 15-64) as these are potentially the most economically active.  In reality many in the 15-19 and 20-24 categories will be in education but it is a useful statistic for comparison purposes.

It is also important to be aware of the differences in population structure among regions and counties when examining economic statistics such as those for income and output.  Counties a lower percentage in the economically active age groups have proportionally more dependents.  They will tend to have lower per capita income and output levels even where there is no difference in productivity.

Mayo has the highest old age dependency ratio (28.3%) in the country,  followed by Leitrim (27.4%) and Roscommon (26.8%) while the lowest nationally is in Kildare (15%).  Galway (20.6%) and Clare (23.4%) have the lowest age dependency ratios in the Region but all Western Region counties have a higher age dependency than that for the Rest of State (19.7%).

 

Figure 3: Old Age, Youth and combined Dependency Ratios, 2016

Source:  CSO, 2017, Profile 2 – Population Distribution and Movements  E2022, own calculations

 

The highest youth dependency ratio in the Region is in Donegal (35.3%) and Leitrim (35.1%) but other counties with particularly high birth rates have much higher youth dependency ratios (in Meath it is 39%, Laois 38.3% and Longford 37.2%).  In the Western Region the lowest is in Galway (31.8%) and Sligo (32.0%).  The Western Region as a whole has a youth dependency ratio of 33.2% compared to 32.1% in the Rest of State.

Combining the youth and old age figures gives an overall dependency figure which gives the proportion of both older and younger people compared to the working age population.  In the Western Region this was 57.4% while in the Rest of the State it was 51.8%.  This compared to a figure of 52.6% in the EU 28 in 2015.

The Oldest People

Some of the most significant change is population structure is occurring among the ‘older old’, those in the 80+ years category, with increased longevity and ageing of the older population.  In Roscommon 4.4% of the population is already in this older age category, while Leitrim (4.27%) and Mayo (4.24%) are the next highest in the state. In contrast, in Kildare only 1.91% are in this category while in Meath it is 2.21%.  Some 3.7% of the WR population is over 80 (3.0% in the Rest of State).  It is expected that by 2080 in the EU28 12.3% of the population will be over 80, which compares to 5.3% in the EU28 in 2015.

The percentage in the 80+ years category is rising in all counties and, while increased longevity is a significant human achievement, it can have important implications.  Those in this age group can experience more poverty and social isolation and poorer health that the ‘younger old’[3].  There is also a significant gender dimension with women having higher survivorship and a lower propensity to re-marry which means they are more likely to live alone.  It is important to respond to, and plan for, the needs of this age category and to endeavour to ensure that as many years as possible are lived with as good health and quality of life as possible.

Conclusions

A higher proportion of the Western Region population is in the older and younger age categories than in the Rest of State, in part reflecting the outward migration of those of working age.  It highlights the importance of a focus on regional employment provision as a key element of regional development policies.  Improving employment prospects would benefit those currently in the youth dependent category, as well as those who are already economically active.

The higher proportion of older people in many Western Region counties means that services for older people are crucial.  As much of the Region is very rural we should continue to learn from best practice elsewhere, particularly in Europe, where the ageing of the population is taking place earlier, on how to provide supports and services to an older population in rural areas.

While much of the thinking about ageing populations is on services and supports it should also be remembered that many people in this age category are likely to continue in employment and so this group would also benefit from improved employment opportunities.  Currently, 4.5% of the Western Region labour force is over 65[4], while 13% of those in the 65+ category are in the labour force.  This compares to 2.8% of the rest of State labour force over 65 and a 10% participation rate for that age category.

Understanding trends in population and examining the detail for the seven Western Region counties helps us better understand the economy and society of the Region.  We will continue to provide analysis of the issues as more results are released from the 2016 Census of Population.

 

 

Helen McHenry

 

[1] Rest of State refers to the 19 counties which are not in the Western Region and is used for comparison rather than using a State figures which also include the Western Region.

[2]http://www.cso.ie/en/media/csoie/releasespublications/documents/population/2017/Chapter_3_Age_and_sex_composition.pdf

[3] Ingham, B., Chirijevskis, A. & Carmichael, F. Pensions Int J (2009) 14: 221.’ Implications of an increasing old-age dependency ratio: The UK and Latvian experiences compared’ doi:10.1057/pm.2009.16 https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057%2Fpm.2009.16

[4] CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey Quarter 1 2016- Special run for the Western Region.  See here for more detail https://www.wdc.ie/wp-content/uploads/WDC-Insights-Presentation-DSP-30.01.2017-final.pdf

Census 2016- Understanding Change in the Western Region

The Summary Results (Part 1) of the 2016 Census of Population were released last week (6th April), with information on population, and corrections to the preliminary results, as well as a number of other statistics giving an overall picture of Irish society.  The infographic below, produced by the CSO, provides a picture of the data available.

A CSO report with maps and charts on key statistics is available here  and a presentation on highlights of the data release is available here .

This post discusses some of the information available for the Western Region based on  data provided at county level.  As more detailed Profiles become available we will be able to present more information at Region, County and ED levels.

What is the population of the Western Region and how has it changed since 2011?

Since the release of the Preliminary Results which was discussed here  the population in most Western Region counties has been amended (in most cases it has been increased slightly, although Galway City population has been reduced)[1].  A notable change is that Sligo had, in the preliminary results, a marginal population decrease between 2011 and 2016 but in this corrected data it has actually shown a slight population increase.

The Western Region population was 828,697 people in April 2016.  The population of the region increased by 7,817 people since 2011 (0.95%). In contrast, between 2006 and 2011 there was an increase of 57,516 persons or 7.5% in the population of the Western Region.

The state population in April 2016 was 4,761,865. It increased by 173,613 persons (3.8%) between 2011 and 2016   (Table 1).

Two counties in Ireland, both in the Western Region (Donegal (-1.5%); Mayo (-0.1%)) experienced population decline over the period.  The highest population growth in the Western Region was in Galway City (4.2%) while Galway County also grew (2.4%).  Clare had the next highest population growth (1.4%) while both Leitrim (0.8%) and Roscommon (0.7%) had very small population growth.

Table 1: Population in 2011 and 2016 of western counties, Western Region and rest of state[2]

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2006 to 2016 by Sex, County and City, Census Year and Statistic   

 

Differences in Male and Female Populations

In all counties (and in the Western Region and the State) there was higher growth in the female population than the male population (See Table 2).  In the Western Region there was a 1.6% increase in the female population and 0.3% in the male population.  For the rest of the state the difference was not so pronounced (males 3.6%; females 4%).  Donegal was the only county to experience a decline in its female population.

Table 2:  Percentage Change in County Population 2011-2016 Male and Female

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004: Population and Actual and Percentage Change 2006 to 2016 by Sex, County and City, Census Year and Statistic   

 

This difference in the patterns of male and female population growth relates in large part to different patterns of migration and more detailed information will be available on this in Profile 2 (Population Distribution and Movement, release due 11 May) and Profile 7 (Migration and Diversity, release due 21 September).  However, Table 3 below shows the differences in the male and female population in each county (using the standard measure of males per 100 females).  As would be expected, because women live longer, in the oldest age category (75+) there are significantly fewer males than females.  What is more unexpected is that the 30-44 age category has fewer men than women (unlike the age categories above and below it).  This indicates significant male migration in this age category.  Again, as more detail becomes available the different patterns can be better understood.  Galway City consistently has more females than males across the age categories.

Table 3: County breakdown of men per 100 women by age group, 2016

Source: CSO Summary results Census 2016 Part 1, Figure 3.8

 

In this Census 2016 Summary Report the population is not available at ED level.  It is expected that this will be contained in the forthcoming release for Profile 2- Population Distribution and Movements on 11th May.  Similarly, while the Summary Report discusses urban and rural population the detail is not provided at county level.

Population Age and Dependency

Some information is provided about age and the map below shows the difference in average age across Ireland.  The average age in the state is 37.4 but the average age is higher in more rural counties of the West and North West and in Kerry and Tipperary.  In fact Kerry and Mayo have the highest average age (both 40.2) followed closely by Leitrim (39.8), Roscommon (39.7) and Sligo (39.2) while the youngest is in Fingal at 34.3 years.

Source:  CSO Summary results Census 2016 Part 1, Map 3.1

 

It is useful to examine the dependency ratios in the Western Region.  Dependents are defined for statistical purposes as people outside the normal working age of 15-64.  Dependency ratios are used to give a useful indication of the age structure of a population with young (0-14) and old (65+) shown as a percentage of the population of working age (i.e. 15-64).

Nationally, the total dependency ratio was 52.7% while that in the Western Region was, as would be expected, higher at 57.4%.  Leitrim had the highest dependency ratio of any county at 62.6 per cent, closely followed by counties Mayo (61.0%), Roscommon (60.8%) and Donegal (60.5%).  The lowest dependency ratios were in Galway city at 39.0 per cent, followed by Cork city (42.8%), Fingal (50.7%) and Kildare (51.4%).

Looking into the make up of this greater dependency the old age and young dependency ratios are shown in Figure 1.  Galway County has the highest young dependency in the region (36.1%) while Galway City has the lowest in the region (23.4%).  Most counties in the Western Region (except Sligo) have higher young dependencies than the State as a whole (32.3%) in part because of the loss of working age population through migration.  Similarly most Western Region counties also have higher old age dependencies than the state (20.4%) with Galway City once again the exception (15.6%).  The highest old age dependency is in Mayo (28.3%)

Figure 1: Old Age and Young dependency Ratios in the Western Region and State, 2016

Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 Summary Results part 1, EY004

 

Conclusion

Over the coming months to December 2017 data from Census 2016 will be released under various headings.  This important information gives us the opportunity to better understand our region and its characteristics.  It is essential for policy and decision making, as well as to our understanding the differences among regions in relation to a variety of issues such as economic output, social transfers and the demand for different goods and services.  We look forward to analysing the future releases and to providing a better understanding of the Western Region throughout 2017.

 

Helen McHenry

 

[1] The Preliminary Results are based on the summary sheet for the Census form while this release is based on the information in the complete Census form.

[2] Rest of state refers to all the counties in the state except for the seven counties of the Western Region.

 

Balanced regional development – What does it mean?

It is clear that some regions in Ireland are growing much more than others (see Regions and Recovery post), with some even showing ‘growth strains’ (Dublin Economic Monitor, Issue 1, Spring 2015, p.4 ). It is also evident that while national economic growth is the main policy objective, policy on where this growth should occur is less clear. This lack of direction is compounded by the hiatus waiting for the development of a successor to the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) (2002), which is not likely to emerge until late 2016 at the earliest.

In the meantime, work to promote ‘balanced regional development’ continues with policy initiatives and actions being developed to spread growth and development more widely across the country, including the recently announced IDA Strategy 2015-2019  to boost regional FDI employment, along with the formulation of Regional

Action Plans for Jobs, and the implementation of recommendations from the Commission for the Economic Development of Rural Areas (CEDRA).  These initiatives seem to have largely emerged because of growing unease at the uneven spatial pattern of economic recovery.

However the term ‘balanced regional development’ is open to many interpretations and recent commentary provides evidence of that. Though the term is widely used, confusion or obfuscation over what is actually intended has not helped the debate on policy implications and direction, let alone any efforts at implementation. Indeed some might argue that the term is used because it is so vague.

In developing a successor to the NSS, it is important to learn from the experience since 2002 and while poor implementation is often cited as the main reason for the NSS’s limited success, lack of clarity on what ‘balanced regional development’ really meant was also a contributing factor.

A range of meanings

Balanced regional development was expressed as a key Government policy objective in the NSS 2002- 2020 published in 2002 and was a key objective of the National Development Plan 2007-2013 (2006). Though balanced regional development became an important government policy, it was not clearly or consistently defined and a range of interpretations and meanings were evident.

In 2002 the NSS stated that

‘In order to achieve more balanced regional development, a greater share of economic activity must take place outside the GDA’ (p. 3). This suggests increasing the rate of growth and the share of growth in regions other than the GDA and/or curtailing the rate of growth in the GDA, reducing its share of national economic activity.

Elsewhere the NSS argued that all areas should experience growth… by increasing economic activity in all areas’ (p. 4).

The other concept which is very prevalent throughout the NSS is that of realising potential and many would argue that this, rather than reducing disparities, became the main definition. ‘In essence, balanced regional development means [d]eveloping the full potential of each area to contribute to the optimal performance of the State as a whole – economically, socially and environmentally’. (p.11)

The development of the urban structure and a more balanced distribution of population were also considered important. ‘Balanced regional development also depends on building up a strong urban structure to give areas the economic strength to support a more balanced distribution of population growth across the country’. (p.26)

In Chapter two, the lack of clarity on what is meant by balanced regional development was evident in the following

‘The question that arises, however, is whether the objective of balanced regional development would be better served if more growth in population could be encouraged in other regions, while still nurturing and sustaining the successful dynamic achieved in Dublin’. (p.29)

It is evident that within the NSS there was a range of meanings implied in the concept of balanced regional development, which result in different policy objectives for example:

  • Growing regions outside the GDA (p.3) suggested reducing the imbalance between regions, implying slower growth rates in stronger regions and faster growth in weaker regions leading to more regional convergence.
  • Increasing economic activity in all areas (p. 4), could mean equivalent growth rates across all regions or could mean very different growth rates resulting in either convergence or divergence.
  • While the concept of regional potential is used, what exactly was intended and how it could be measured was even less clear.

Balanced regional development, and how it has been expressed and defined, reflects a spectrum of meanings and objectives in government policy.

The Current Context

Population changes (migration in particular), reflect, among other things, economic development, growth rates and potential in terms of economic opportunities. The current pattern of population growth is not dissimilar to that which occurred at the start of the 2000s when the NSS was being formulated. The share of national population in the GDA rose from 37.7% in 1971 to 39.2% in 2002. (p.29)

This continues, with population increasingly concentrated in the GDA and forecast to continue in this way. WDC analysis of the latest CSO Regional Population Projections 2016-2031 shows that the GDA is projected to increase its share of national population to 42.3% in 2031 while all other regions are projected to have a reduced share (though still experiencing population growth).

The population of working age will become more concentrated, with the West and Border being the only regions with a projected decline in their working age population and consequent increases in older and younger age dependency ratios (see previous post).

Growing concentration can also be seen in economic activity. In 2002 the GDA accounted for 46.2% of the State’s total Gross Value Added (GVA), in 2012 its share was 49.6% (CSO, County Incomes and Regional GDP 2012).

Lessons to be learned

In considering the formulation of a new spatial plan or National Planning Framework to frame economic development throughout Ireland, it will be important to draw on valuable lessons learned from the NSS 2002.

Poor implementation is often cited as the main reason for the limited success of the NSS. While this is no doubt a factor, a key aspect of policy formulation must also be clearly defined policy objectives.

How we define balanced regional development (or any similar concept) is important.  Clear definition of regional balance, the need for regional equity or the development of regional potential will ultimately influence the policies used to achieve them.  Though such definitions are politically and practically difficult, failure to make clear what is meant by regional balance, with clear goals and targets will, as we have seen with the NSS, lead to policy failure and to further regional imbalance.

When considering a new national planning framework which aims to deliver balanced regional development, deciding and agreeing what we actually mean by balanced regional development and how we measure it would be a useful starting point which might ultimately ensure a greater chance of success.

Deirdre Frost

 

Farmers in the West are getting older

The age profile of farmers in the Western Region is changing. Farmers are getting older and by 2010 for each farmer under 35 there were more than 10 farmers over 55 years of age. This changing age profile has implications for the type and amount of output from farms in the West.

The most recent Census of Agriculture[1] (2010) shows that more than half (56%) of the farmers in the Western Region (31,467) were over the age of 55, with 30% of these over 65 years of age (see Fig. 1). There is a higher proportion of farms in the older age categories now than in the last two decades. In 1991 50% of Western Region farmers were over 55, but by 2000 this had fallen to 44% before increasing again in 2010. While the number of Western Region farmers past retirement age is significant (16,838) the age profile of farmers in the region is similar to that in the EU where 30% of farmers are over 65 and only 10% under 35.

Figure 1: Farmers in the Western Region by Age Category, 2010

pie age fers2 15.04.15

 

There were only 2,999 (5%) farmers aged under 35 in the Western Region in 2010 and fewer younger farmers now than in either 2000, or 1991 (the previous agricultural censuses) when farmers under 35 made up 11% of farmers in the region (Fig. 2).

 

Figure 2: Age Categories of Farmers in Western Region 1991 to 2010

 combi bar age fers15.04.15

Farmers in the Western Region have tended to be older than those in the rest of Ireland (in 1991 43% of farmers in the rest of Ireland were over 55 compared to 50% in the Western Region) but the pattern of change is very similar with fewer farmers in the Rest of Ireland in older age categories in 2000 (37% in Rest of Ireland, 44% in Western Region) and in 2010 when 48% in the Rest of Ireland were aged 55 years and older and 56% in the Western Region.

As mentioned in a previous post, much of the structural change in agriculture occurred between 1991 and 2000, and this was associated with older farmers leaving agriculture and increased opportunity for younger famers to take over farm holdings. There has been less change in farm numbers and size since then and numbers in the older age categories have again increased.

Improved efficiency and productivity on farm tends to be associated with younger farmers with older farmers less likely to invest in their farms. With almost of a third of Western Region famers over the retirement age there are significant implications for the development of agriculture in the region.

 

Helen McHenry

[1] CSO, 2010 Census of Agriculture 2010