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Carbon Tax: Use of revenue to address climate action issues in rural areas

The WDC made a submission to the Department of Finance Consultation on the options for the use of revenues raised from increases in carbon tax.

A detailed consultation paper was prepared by the Tax Division of the Department of Finance which provided background information on carbon tax revenues, proposed changes in the rate of the tax and possible implication of these increases for users.  They also outlined a number of options for the use of revenues from the tax.

The ESRI has also done a number of studies on distributional effects of carbon tax and revenue recycling options and noted that the carbon tax disproportionately affects lower income households and rural households.  I hope to look at these studies in more detail in a future post.

As regular readers of the blog know, the Western Region (the area under the WDC remit) is a largely rural region which takes in some of the most remote parts of the state. Using the CSO definition 64.7% in of the population live outside of towns of 1,500 or more. Using the definition in Ireland 2040 the National Planning Framework 80% of people in Western Region live outside of towns of 10,000. Thus WDC work has a particular focus on the needs of, and opportunities for, more rural and peripheral areas.  The five most rural counties in Ireland are in the Western Region (Leitrim, Galway county, Roscommon, Donegal and Mayo, and the Western Region also has a higher share of the population living in smaller towns.

In this submission we therefore concentrated on issues for rural areas and our region.  Climate action for rural dwellers is not often discussed in policy and there is no significant body of work (internationally or nationally) on climate change and emission issues for rural areas in developed countries and yet there are important differences in energy use patterns and emissions in rural areas.  Hence, the main focus of the submission was on key climate matters for rural dwellers including energy efficiency; home heating; transport; and stimulating rural enterprise.

The WDC emphasised that a portion of the revenues from increases in carbon tax focus should focus on addressing issues for rural areas, and on actions to ensure that rural areas are in a position to benefit from a move to a low carbon economy.  There are many opportunities to do so and targeted programmes would enable rural dwellers to make a fair contribution to national goals for renewable energy and to actions to mitigate climate change.

 

You can view the submission here.

 

Helen McHenry

Financial & ICT Services in the Western Region

The WDC has just published the latest in its series of Regional Sectoral Profiles analysing employment and enterprise data for economic sectors in the Western Region.

It examines the Financial & ICT Services sector which covers two sub-sectors: ‘Financial & Insurance Activities’ (banks, mortgage brokers, insurance and pension funding) and ‘Information & Communication’ (publishing, film, video, TV and music, telecommunications, computer programming (software) and IT services/support). Both are knowledge intensive services sectors, relatively high value, high skill and highly paid and tend to be quite concentrated in larger urban centres.

Two publications are available:

Employment in Financial & ICT Services in the Western Region

According to Census 2016, 17,884 people worked in Financial & ICT Services in the Western Region. This was just 9.9% of everyone working in this sector in Ireland, compared with the region’s 16.6% share of overall employment.

Financial & ICT Services plays a significantly smaller role in the region’s labour market than nationally (Fig. 1); 5.4% of total employment compared with 9%.  The balance between ‘Financial & Insurance’ and ‘Information & Communication’ also varies in the region.  Nationally, each accounts for the same share of total jobs (4.5% each) however in the Western Region ‘Information & Communication’ is notably more important than ‘Financial & Insurance’ (3% of all jobs v 2.3% of all jobs). This reflects the concentration of financial services activity in Dublin and particularly around the IFSC.

In the region Financial & ICT Services is most important in Galway City (9.1%), followed by Donegal (6.2%), Clare (5.6%) and Galway County (5.5%) with large urban centres and the Shannon Free Zone influencing the pattern.

Fig. 1: Percentage of total employment in Financial & ICT Services in Western Region and state, 2016

Source: CSO, Census 2016: Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ011

 

At a more detailed level, ‘Computer Programming & Consultancy’[1] is the largest employer among Financial & ICT Services activities (36.8% of all employment in the sector) and accounts for a higher share in the region than nationally (32.8%).  In contrast the region has a notably lower share in the next largest activity of ‘Financial Services’[2] (25.1% in the region v 31.3% in the state).  The two other ICT Services activities of ‘Audio-visual, Publishing & Broadcasting’[3] and ‘Telecoms’[4], also account for a greater share in the region, whereas the other financial activity of ‘Insurance, Pension & Fund Management’ accounts for a similar share in both.

Employment in western towns

At 14.3% (1,111 people) of total employment Letterkenny has by far the highest share of residents working in the sector (Fig. 2) and is the eleventh highest of Ireland’s 200 towns and cities (1,500+ population).  Most of the towns with a higher share surround Dublin city. Within the region, Bearna (11%, 98 people) and Oranmore (10.6%, 275 people) have the next highest shares working in Financial & ICT Services, likely due to commuting to Galway City.

Four towns in the Western Region are among the bottom ten nationally (Ballyhaunis, Bundoran, Ballyshannon and Ballymote) at less than 2.6% working in Financial & ICT services. All are rural towns at some distance from larger urban centres.  It is clear there is limited activity in this sector in such towns or commuting to work in other centres.  Remote work offers the possibility for more people working in this sector to live in such locations.

Fig. 2: Percentage of total employment in Financial & ICT Services in towns in the Western Region, 2016

Source: CSO, Census 2016: Profile 11 – Employment, Occupations and Industry, Table EB030

Change in employment in the Western Region and its counties

There was 4.6% jobs growth in Financial & ICT Services in the Western Region between 2011 and 2016 (Table 1). This was less than half the 12.1% increase that occurred nationally and significantly lower than overall jobs growth in the region (7.5%).  Galway City (14.5%) and Donegal (12.9%) experienced jobs growth higher than the national average and this sector exceeded overall jobs growth in both counties.

Mayo, where the sector is least important as an employer, had the largest job losses with a fall of 9.1% in the number working in Financial & ICT Services.  Leitrim (-6.8%) and Sligo (-6.6%) also saw large declines between 2011 and 2016 and in all cases this sector performed worse than jobs overall.  It is important to note that this data is from 2016 and there have been some significant job announcements in this sector since that time, particularly in Sligo.

The performance of the individual activities varied very significantly with a 49.3% increase (2,176 people) in employment in ‘Computer Programming & Consultancy’ in the region contrasting with a 22.8% decrease (1,330 people) in ‘Financial Services’.  Regardless of whether an activity grew or declined, its performance in the region was weaker than nationally, particularly for those activities which declined. The region was closer to the national average for the two growing activities

‘Computer Programming & Consultancy’ showed strong jobs growth across every western county, growing by 60+% in Roscommon, Donegal and Galway City. ‘Financial Services’ saw significant job losses across all western counties, declining by over a quarter in Galway City, Donegal, Sligo and Clare.  One of the main reasons for this was the closure of many bank and building society branches, particularly in smaller towns, growing online banking and increased automation reducing staffing levels.

Agency Assisted Jobs in Financial & ICT Services

In 2017, there were 12,844 agency assisted[5] jobs in Financial & ICT Services based in the Western Region.  Jobs in Financial & ICT Services account for 19.3% of all assisted jobs in the Western Region, but 32.4% of all assisted jobs in the state, consistent with the sector’s lower importance to total employment.

The relative importance of different activities varies (Fig. 3).  The share of total assisted jobs accounted for by ‘Computer Programming’ is essentially the same in both the region and state, indicating that this sector is well developed in the region.  For all other Financial & ICT Services activities, their share of total assisted jobs in the region is considerably lower than nationally. This is particularly the case for ‘Computer Consultancy’ which accounts for 8% of all assisted jobs in the state, making it the largest among these five activities, but less than half this share in the region.  Indeed, for all other activities, their share of assisted jobs in the region is roughly half that nationally.

Fig. 3: Percentage of total assisted jobs in each Financial & ICT Services activity in Western Region and state, 2017

Source: Department of Business, Enterprise & Innovation (2018), Annual Employment Survey 2017, special run

Ownership of Agency Assisted Jobs

Financial & ICT Services has a very high level of foreign ownership with 79% of jobs in foreign owned agency assisted companies, among the highest shares of foreign ownership across all sectors.  The level of foreign ownership has risen, in 2008 71.6% of jobs in the sector were foreign owned.

The balance between Irish and foreign ownership varies across the different sub-sectors (Fig. 4).  All assisted jobs in ‘Computer Facilities Management’ in the region are in foreign owned firms.  The largest activity of ‘Computer Programming’ is strongly foreign dominated with 97.6% of all assisted jobs in this activity in foreign owned firms.  International ‘Financial Services’ is another area of high foreign involvement, with 91.3% of all jobs in the region in foreign owned firms.

‘Computer Consultancy’ has considerably greater Irish owned involvement with only 49% of jobs in foreign owned firms.  In this activity the region has a lower foreign owned share and therefore greater Irish owned involvement.  This activity saw large job losses in the early part of the recession, only recovering somewhat in more recent years. The greater level of Irish ownership within this activity contributed to greater losses of Irish owned Financial & ICT Services jobs during the recession than foreign owned.

Fig. 4: Percentage of total assisted jobs in Financial & ICT Services activities in foreign owned companies in Western Region and state, 2017

Source: Department of Business, Enterprise & Innovation (2018), Annual Employment Survey 2017, special run

 

Key Policy Issues

Low current level of activity in Financial & ICT Services in the Western Region and the gap is widening as the rate of growth in the region significantly lagged that nationally between 2011 and 2016.  Given that this is a high value, high skill and highly paid sector, increasing the level of activity in Financial & ICT Services in the Western Region could make an important contribution to regional economic development, productivity and income levels. However as this is not a highly labour intensive sector it plays a modest role in direct job creation.

Lower level of international activity in the region but internationally trading firms performed better than domestically trading sector, particularly in financial services.  Sustaining and accelerating this growth in internationally trading Financial & ICT Services firms is the main route to increasing the sector’s regional economic impact.  Access to talent, high quality telecommunications, research capacity and a supportive business ecosystem, as well as an attractive quality of life, are critical to this growth.

High level of foreign ownership means there is a need to stimulate the Irish owned sector.   Stimulating start-ups and the scaling of Irish owned technology and finance companies, to a stage where they have the capacity to trade internationally, is important to creating a more sustainable balance in the structure of this sector in the region.  This is particularly important in light of planned changes to international corporation tax rules, developments in the US and Brexit.  Current initiatives such as NUIG’s TechInnovate[6] are trying to address this by facilitating technology start-ups in the region.

There is a growing gender imbalance as the male share of all employment in Financial & ICT Services rose from 50.9% in 2011 to 54.9% by 2016 mainly because of stronger growth in male dominated ICT Services (67.9% male) compared with large job losses in the more female dominated Financial Services (62% female).  Ongoing initiatives to encourage greater participation by women in computer science, technology and finance courses, addressing the perceived male culture within the sector, raising awareness of female role models and female entrepreneurship programmes can all help to redress this imbalance.

Key urban locations play a critical role as centres for Financial & ICT Services activity with Galway City and Letterkenny two key locations particularly in ICT Services, Shannon/Ennis also having notable activity especially in Financial Services and a number of high profile recent announcements for Sligo. The availability of suitable office space, physical and digital infrastructure, links with education and training providers, access to talent and quality of life, as well as addressing issues such as traffic congestion and rising costs, will be important to ensuring these key urban locations can enhance their regional and national role as centres for Financial & ICT Services activity.

Opportunities for growth exist beyond large urban locations, including remote workDevelopments in technology, the world of work and the need to develop more sustainable approaches means that remote work (from home, a co-working hub or other location) holds considerable potential for smaller urban centres and rural areas to host increasing activity in this high skill, high value and highly paid sector. Initiatives such as Grow Remote[7] are currently highlighting the potential for increased remote working and also highlighting key policy changes needed to facilitate its expansion and wider acceptance among employers.  Access to high speed broadband is one of the most critical factors.

Limited self-employment activity in this sector, but higher incidence in the Western Region, particularly for ICT Services in Sligo, Leitrim and Mayo. This implies the structure of the sector in these counties differs from that elsewhere with many sole traders or freelancers engaged in AV production, IT services or software development and fewer large employers. An opportunity exists to target these ICT entrepreneurs, many of whom may be based in quite rural areas and smaller towns, by providing networking opportunities, business support, co-working space and opportunities to collaborate.

Access to talent is critical.  A co-ordinated approach between education and training providers in the region, in collaboration with employers, is needed to ensure an adequate supply of the necessary skills including a strong focus on upskilling and lifelong learning.[8]  Attracting talent to relocate to the region is the complementary approach.  Promoting the quality of life, lower cost of living and shorter commuting times in the region, as well as the job and entrepreneurship opportunities available, are important to attracting people to relocate.  [9]The demand for talent is also increasing the incidence of permanent full time jobs and wages in the sector.[10]

For more detailed analysis see ‘Financial & ICT Services in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile’ https://www.wdc.ie/publications/reports-and-papers/

Pauline White

 

Image by Free Photos at Pixabay

 

[1] Software and app development, IT services, data analysis consultancy etc.

[2] Banks, building societies, credit companies, venture capital, mortgage advisors etc.

[3] Publishing, newspapers, film, photography, music recording, TV production, TV and radio broadcasting etc.

[4] Wired, wireless and satellite telecommunications (phone, broadband).

[5] Department of Business, Enterprise & Innovation (DBEI), Annual Employment Survey 2017. A survey of all firms in Ireland who have ever received support from IDA Ireland, Enterprise Ireland or Udarás na Gaeltachta.

[6] See http://techinnovate.org/

[7] See https://growremote.ie/

[8] See https://www.regionalskills.ie/

[9] See www.LookWest.ie

[10] ‘Information & Communication’ had the highest growth in average weekly earnings nationally over the past five years increasing 21.1% Q1 2014 to Q1 2019. CSO, Earnings, Hours and Employment Costs Survey Q1 2019, Table EHQ03

Smaller Labour Catchments across the Western Region

Travel to Work Areas and Labour Catchments

Analysis of travel to work data can be used to identify the geographic catchment from which a town draws its workforce, otherwise known as its labour catchment. Measurement of labour markets based on Travel to Work Areas (TTWAs) has been well established in the UK for many years, helping to inform various public policies ranging from employment to transport provision. Companies and large employers use TTWAs to help identify optimal locations to access labour supply.

The use of TTWAs is less well established in Ireland, and where used has largely been focussed on the larger cities especially Dublin. There has generally been little focus on labour catchments in other centres or more rural regions.

The Western Development Commission (WDC) has worked with the All Island Research Observatory (AIRO) to examine the labour catchments of towns across the Western Region based on Census of Population data 2006 and 2016. The town labour catchments show that area from which a town draws most of its labour supply; each catchment is based on the inclusions of Electoral Divisions (EDs) that are assigned to a town, based on commuting to work flows.

Last year the WDC published the findings on the labour catchments of the principal towns of the seven counties of the Western Region (Galway, Ennis, Sligo, Letterkenny, Castlebar, Roscommon and Carrick-on-Shannon). The full report Travel to Work and Labour Catchments in the Western Region, A Profile of Seven Town Labour Catchments is available for download here (14.2MB). Each of the individual town reports are also available to download separately (Galway City, Sligo Town, Ennis,  Letterkenny, Castlebar, Carrick-on-Shannon, Roscommon).

The WDC is now publishing the findings of the other smaller catchments across the Western Region. This is the first time such detailed labour market analyses have been undertaken for the smaller centres across the Western Region. These data and findings can inform local and regional economic development and help support appropriate policies to ensure optimal local and regional development.

Smaller Catchments

The WDC identifies 26 labour catchments, which complement the 7 labour catchments of the principal towns in each of the counties which were published in 2018, see above.

In these 26 publications, the WDC draws on Census 2016 POWCAR (Place of Work Census of Anonymised Records) data to examine the travel to work patterns in centres with a population greater than 1,000 across the Western Region.

These 26 smaller catchments provide insights into the travel to work patterns of workers living there which are then used to generate labour catchments which show the geographic area from which each town draws most of its workers. Each town’s labour catchment has many more workers living there than the Census measure of the town’s resident workforce and it is a better measure of labour supply. This is particularly useful when considering employment and investment decisions.

Socio-economic profiles

Each of the reports identify the place of work of the resident workforce and provides detailed analysis of the socio-economic profile of workers providing information on age, gender, education levels, and sector of employment. There are comparisons with the rest of the Western Region and the State Average. There is also trend analyses indicating the extent of change between 2006 and 2016.

For ease of presentation the 26 smaller catchment reports are presented by County. Below are links to each of the 26 reports. In practice labour catchments extend across county boundaries, indeed that is one of the rationales for considering labour catchments rather than administrative boundaries; people travel to work regardless of county boundaries and these patterns and catchments provide a better evidence base for informing policy.

Some key points include:

  • Labour Supply: All the town labour catchments have significantly more people at work than the Census population at work for that town and have therefore access to a larger labour supply than normal Census definitions would indicate.
  • Profile of ‘Rural’ employment: The profile of employment in these smaller centres provide important insights into ‘rural’ employment, which is much are complex and varied than the perception of rural as largely agricultural employment.
  • Trends: Changes over time, in both place of work and the socio-economic characteristics of workers indicate little change in the geography of labour catchments but much change in the profile of resident workers, most notably in their age and education levels.

County Clare

The two labour catchments within Co. Clare have both recorded an increase in workers resident in the catchments. The Shannon labour catchment is concentrated around the Shannon Free Zone and Shannon Airport and is geographically compact. The Kilrush labour catchment is more extensive and now incorporates a previously separate Kilkee labour catchment. In both there is evidence of longer distances travelled to work than previously.

County Donegal

There are 8 smaller catchments located within Co. Donegal, reflecting the large size of the county, its geography with an extensive border both with Northern Ireland and the sea, and the relatively small size of some of the catchments.

Of the 8 labour catchments, 5 recorded a decline in the number of resident workers in the decade between 2006 and 2016. The three that recorded an increase in resident workers are Donegal, Dungloe and Carndonagh,  illustrating that some more remote areas are experiencing growth.

Each report identifies the top 10 work destinations for residents living in each labour catchment and the extent of cross border commuting is presented.

County Galway

There are 4 smaller catchments located within Co. Galway and just one, Gort labour catchment, recorded a decrease in the number of workers living there over the decade 2006-2016. Clifden, Tuam and Loughrea labour catchments recorded increases of varying degrees. The data presented also shows the extent of commuting between catchments, for example from Tuam, Loughrea and Gort labour catchments to Galway city.

County Leitrim

Apart from the county town labour catchment of Carrick-on-Shannon, there is just one smaller catchment located within Co. Leitrim, namely Manorhamilton. The number of resident workers in the Manorhamilton labour catchment increased over the ten year period and there is data to show more people are now working in Manorhamilton . The influence of some key employers is evident. Data on dross border commuting is also presented.

County Mayo

There are 8 smaller catchments located within Co. Mayo. Just two of the eight recorded a decline in the numbers of resident workers between the period of 2006 and 2016, these were Belmullet and the Charlestown/Knock Airport catchment. The other 6 recorded increases of varying degrees from 31% increase in the Westport labour catchment to an increase of 2.4% for the Ballina labour catchment. The most important places of work across each catchment are presented along with the labour market profiles of workers living there.

County Roscommon

There are 3 smaller catchments located within Co. Roscommon. All 3 recorded a decline in the numbers of workers resident there. In the case of Boyle and Ballaghaderreen, the geographic size of the labour catchments also decreased slightly. The data presented show the sectors in which people worked, the extent to which people worked inside the town and those who worked outside the town but within the wider catchment and the changes over the 10 years. Across all catchments there is a very significant increase in the level of third level education among the workforce.

 

Deirdre Frost

Even Nuttier about NUTS!

Last July I published a blog post Nuts about NUTS! where I discussed the introduction of the new regional classification for statistics in Ireland.  Briefly, a new regional classification for collecting statistics in Ireland was approved by the EU in 2016, following the Local Government Act 2014 and the establishment of three new Regional Assemblies.  The CSO first used this new regional classification in the Labour Force Survey for Quarter 1 2018.  It has since used the new regional classification in any data release which includes regional data.

The new structure involves three NUTS2 level regions (replacing the two previous NUTS2 regions (Southern & Eastern and Border, Midland & West)) and eight (revised) NUTS3 level regions as follows:

  • NUTS2 Northern & Western: Composed of NUTS3 West (Galway, Mayo, Roscommon) and NUTS3 Border (Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan).
  • NUTS2 Southern: Composed of NUTS3 Mid-West (Clare, Limerick, Tipperary), NUTS3 South East (Wexford, Waterford, Carlow, Kilkenny) and NUTS3 South West (Cork, Kerry).
  • NUTS2 Eastern & Midland: Composed of NUTS3 Dublin, NUTS3 Mid-East (Wicklow, Kildare, Meath, Louth) and NUTS3 Midlands (Offaly, Laois, Westmeath, Longford).

The changes at NUTS3 level are the transfer of South Tipperary from the South-East NUTS3 region into the Mid-West NUTS3 region (following the amalgamation of North and South Tipperary Councils) and the movement of Louth from the Border NUTS3 region to the Mid-East NUTS3 region.  Therefore four out of the eight NUTS3 regions changed and four (West, South West, Dublin and Midlands) remained the same.  The CSO published an Information Note on the revisions.

Transition Period

Like the UK leaving the EU, we are currently in something of a ‘transition period’ when it comes to regional statistics in Ireland, and while nowhere near as traumatic, it is causing a few problems and some confusion, namely:

Which NUTS3 regions? It is easy to tell the ‘new’ classification when it includes the NUTS2 regions.  If you see Northern & Western, Southern and Eastern & Midland you know it is the ‘new’ one.

However as the names of the NUTS3 regions remained unchanged, when you just see a list of the NUTS3 regions, it is not clear if the ‘old’ or ‘new’ classification is being used. A good example of how this can be confusing was the recent Census of Industrial Production 2016.  In this release data was provided for five NUTS3 regions (Border, Dublin, Mid-East, Midland and West) as the data for the South West, South East and Mid-East were suppressed for confidentiality reasons. No data was therefore given in the release publication for the NUTS2 regions. Reading the release it was not clear which regional classification was used and it was not included in the Background Notes to the release.  Only by going into Statbank to download the data, and seeing the NUTS2 regions of Northern & Western etc. listed was it clear that the ‘new’ classification was used.

When using the CSO’s Statbank system, a ‘Note’ will usually appear in a dialog box at the top of the page (see below), and also at the bottom of the spreadsheet you download indicating if the new regional classification is used.  If you are looking at a published CSO ‘Release’ such as the Adult Education Survey 2017, then the regional classification is usually included in the ‘Background Notes’.

Fig. 1: Screengrab from CSO Statbank

Different CSO data sets: As mentioned above, any new data (which includes a regional breakdown) issued by the CSO since mid-2018 uses the new regional classification.  However data sets published prior to that use the older classification.  So for example the most recent Labour Force Survey data, which measures employment and unemployment, uses the new regional structure but the County Incomes and Regional GDP 2015 data issued last February uses the older classification.  Therefore a report or analysis drawing on a number of different CSO data sets may find that the regional classifications are not necessarily comparable.

Different data sources: While the CSO has adopted the ‘new’ regional classifications for all releases, this may not be true of all data providers.  Earlier this year the IDA issued its end of year results for 2018.  The results included data for the number of jobs in IDA-backed companies by region and the annual change.  The release did not specify which regional classification was used, so it was unclear if their ‘Border’ was the ‘old’ region including Louth or the ‘new’ region without Louth.

I got in touch with IDA and they confirmed they were continuing to use the ‘old’ regional structure as it aligned with their regional office structure, the regional targets set in their Strategy and current EU State Aid regulations.  Their intention is to switch to the new structures from 2020.

While this is very understandable, it does raise the possibility for some confusion and misunderstanding.  For example someone may compare total employment in the Border region in 2018 (derived from the LFS and using the ‘new’ regions) with employment in IDA companies (derived from IDA results and using the ‘old’ regions) without realising the two ‘Borders’ are not the same region.  This clearly illustrates the need for all data providers and users to state which regional classification is being used.

Time series: When releasing new regional data with the ‘new’ classifications, the CSO are (where applicable) issuing ‘backdated’ results for the ‘new’ regions to 2012, so for example in the CSO’s Statbank if you go to the Labour Force Survey, you can download data for the ‘new’ regions for each quarter from Q1 2012 to Q3 2018 (latest).  Clearly, recoding and backdating massive data sets with new classifications is a time-consuming task and providing six years of time series data is very welcome.

However it does mean conducting time series analysis at regional level (except for the four ‘unchanged’ NUTS3 regions) further back than 2012 involves a break in the data at 2012.  This break in the time series can cause some confusion, an example was the Survey on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) published late last year. The CSO used the new classification for the 2017 release and backdated to 2012, with the data prior to that (2004-2011) using the old classification.  They noted this in the dialog box (see below) and download in Statbank and in the ‘Information Note’ for the release.  However, there was some commentary by people comparing the regional poverty data from 2008 and 2017 without making reference to the fact that for four of the eight regions, the data for the two periods was not directly comparable.

Fig. 2: Screengrab from CSO Statbank

Also, while the CSO have committed to providing backdated time series for the new regions to 2012, it is not clear if all data providers will do the same.  Therefore it is important to check.

Coping with the transition!

Obviously over time this issue will largely resolve itself as the revised classification becomes the norm for all data and we move further away from the ‘break’ in the time series.  In the meantime however here are a few suggestions for coping with the transition:

  1. Check: When looking at or downloading any data at regional level, check which regional classification is used. For CSO data, it is usually included in a ‘dialog’ box in Statbank and the Background/Information Note for the release or if the data includes NUTS2 data it is easy to tell. In general any CSO data issued since June 2018 uses the ‘new’ classification and anything issued before that will be the ‘old’.  Also be sure to check if (and how far) any backdating of the data has been done, for CSO it will generally be to 2012. Other data sources would need to be checked on a case by case basis.
  2. Ask: If it is not stated or clear from the release or data, contact the data provider to check. The more people who make a query, the more conscious all data providers will be to clarify which classification is used.
  3. Say: If you are a data provider and publishing data at regional level, be conscious to explicitly state which regional classification is used. If you are a data user and are publishing analysis or commentary using regional data, clarify which classification you are using. This is particularly critical if multiple data sets or sources are used with different regional classifications.

While this may all seem a little pedantic, given the current interest in the impact of Brexit on the border economy, knowing if someone discussing data for the Border is discussing a Border including Louth (with Dundalk and Drogheda) or a Border excluding Louth, could make quite a lot of difference.

Pauline White

The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region

Today we published the second in our series of ‘Regional Sectoral Profiles’ analysing employment and enterprise data for the Western Region on specific economic sectors and identifying key policy issues. The new report examines the Health & Care Sector, the Western Region’s third largest employer.

The full report ‘The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile’ and the two-pageWDC Insights: The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region’ which summarises the key points can be downloaded here

Health & Care is a broad sector including all those working in hospitals, nursing homes, crèches, day facilities, dental, medical and physiotherapist practices etc.  It includes professional healthcare occupations e.g. nurses, doctors, as well as clerical and administrative roles and care assistants, home carers, childminders and childcare workers.

Discussions of the Health & Care sector generally focus on provision of vital healthcare services. This ‘Regional Sectoral Profile’ however focuses on its role as a key economic sector and regional employer.

Employment & Enterprise in Health & Care

A few of the key findings from the report on employment and enterprise in the sector include:

  • 42,027 people were employed in the Health & Care sector in the Western Region in 2016. This was 12.6% of total employment in the region, higher than the 11.1% share nationally.
  • At 15.5% of all employment, Sligo has the highest share working in this sector in the country, while Leitrim (13.5%) has the second highest share nationally with Galway City and Galway County (both 13%) jointly fourth.
  • Health & Care is the largest employment sector for six out of the region’s 40 urban centres – Letterkenny, Sligo, Ballinasloe, Bearna, Strandhill and Collooney. It must be notes that this data refers to residents of the towns, although some may travel to work elsewhere and proximity to a large hospital is a key factor.
  • The number of people working in Health & Care in the Western Region grew by 14.8% between 2011 and 2016, close to double the growth of total employment in the region (7.5%). All western counties experienced far stronger growth in Health & Care jobs than in jobs generally
  • ‘Residential care & social work’ (nursing homes, crèches, home care) is the largest element of Health & Care in the Western Region accounting for 47.6% of all employment in the sector. ‘Hospital activities’ is next largest (37.2%).
  • 4% of all working women in the Western Region work in Health & Care and it is the largest employment sector for women in the region.
  • In 2016 there were 3,485 Health & Care enterprises registered in the Western Region; that was 6.4% of total enterprises in that year.
  • Sligo (7.8%) and Galway (7.6%) have the highest shares of enterprises in Health & Care across all counties in Ireland, again reinforcing the substantial role played by the sector in the region’s economy.

Key Policy Issues for the Western Region’s Health & Care Sector

As the third largest employer in the Western Region and an area showing strong jobs growth in recent years, the Health & Care sector plays a pivotal role in the regional economy, in addition to providing vital services. Therefore future trends in the sector will have significant regional implications.

Higher reliance on Health & Care in the Western Region:  Health & Care is a more significant employer in the Western Region than nationally.  It plays a critical role in providing opportunities for professional careers, especially in more rural areas where there may be fewer alternatives. It also offers jobs at lower skill levels which are important in providing employment for all sections of the labour force. However this greater reliance on the sector in the region increases its vulnerability to any jobs decline.  While the primary policy focus for Health & Care must be on the provision of quality services, the sector’s parallel role as a provider of jobs, particularly in the Western Region, should also be a factor in policy decisions.

Central role in female employment: The Health & Care sector is the largest employer of women in the Western Region and any future developments in this sector will have a far greater impact on female than male employment levels.

Key driver of job creation: Employment growth in Health & Care in the Western Region was almost twice the region’s average employment growth (2011-2016).  Its role may often be overlooked in debates on recent job creation trends, with more focus on exporting and high-tech businesses.  The role of Health & Care in job creation, as well as future growth opportunities in the sector, should be fully explored in national, regional and local economic development strategies.

An ageing population and growing demand:  Over 16% of the population of Mayo, Leitrim, Roscommon and Sligo are aged 65+ years.  Increased longevity means there is a growing share among the ‘older old’ (80+) with Roscommon (4.4%), Leitrim (4.3%) and Mayo (4.25) the highest in the state.  ‘Residential care & social work’ grew by almost a quarter in the Western Region (2011-2016).  Responding to the needs of an ageing population is one of the greatest challenges facing the Health & Care sector and significant job and growth opportunities exist in effectively meeting this challenge. The Western Region’s older age profile and high level of rurality means it is at the forefront of this growing demand and has an opportunity to develop new and innovative solutions such as learning from successful models across Europe.

Loss of rural GP practices: ‘Medical practice’ was the only Health & Care sub-sector which saw a decline in employment.  It is estimated that 50% of GPs in Leitrim will retire over the next five to seven years, 41% in Mayo and 38% in Roscommon.  If reported difficulties in finding GP replacements persist, this could mean that medical practices in neighbouring towns and villages may close.  The impact on the delivery of health services in rural areas of the loss of medical practices needs to be considered in Government policy, with options such as online delivery of GP services explored as part of the solution.

Skill shortages:  A number of skill shortages exist in the sector and healthcare professionals (nurses, doctors) accounted for a higher share of all employment permits (for non-EU residents) issued for the West and Border regions than nationally.  Care workers and childminders are occupations characterised by high turnover and some employers may be experiencing difficulty in attracting and retaining qualified care and childcare workers. Changing demographics, along with Government policy, will impact on the demand for Health & Care skills.  Initiatives to increase the number of people with qualifications in care, as well as to improve working conditions and increase its attractiveness as a job option, are important for the sector’s capacity to meet future needs.

Download the full report ‘The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile’ and the two-pageWDC Insights: The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region’ which summarises the key points, here

 

How important is Wholesale & Retail in the Western Region?

The WDC recently published the first in a series of ‘Regional Sectoral Profiles’ analysing specific economic sectors in the Western Region and identifying key policy issues.  The first sector examined is Wholesale & Retail.  Two publications are available:

  • WDC Insights: Wholesale & Retail in the Western Region (2-page summary)
  • Wholesale & Retail in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile (full report)

Download both here

Wholesale & Retail Employment in the Western Region

42,510 people were employed in the Wholesale & Retail sector in the Western Region in 2016. At 12.7% of total employment, it is the region’s second largest employment sector, after Industry.  It is somewhat less important in the region than nationally (Fig. 1).  At 13.3% of all employment, it is Ireland’s largest employer.

Among western counties, Wholesale & Retail is most significant in Mayo (14.4%) and least so in Clare (11.2%).  Two other largely rural counties (Roscommon and Donegal) had the next highest shares working in the sector in the region.  Wholesale & Retail accounted for a higher share of total employment in 2016 than a decade earlier in all western counties (except Donegal) and most notably in the most rural counties.

Fig. 1: Percentage of total employment in the Wholesale & Retail sector in Western Region and state, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016: Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ011; CSO, Census 2006: Volume 7 – Principal Economic Status and Industries, Table C0713

52.3% of people at work in the Wholesale & Retail sector in the Western Region are male, similar to the national average.  Males make up the majority in all western counties (at 55.2% Sligo has the greatest male majority) except Clare (50.8% female) and Galway city (50.9% female).

Wholesale & Retail Employment in western towns

Wholesale & Retail is the largest employment sector for 16 out of the region’s 40 urban centres.  There is no clearly discernible pattern in the relative importance (as a percentage of total employment) of the sector across the 40 towns, ranked by descending size (Fig. 2). Factors such as location, distance from larger urban centres, diversity of its economic profile and alternative job options combine with a town’s size to determine the role played by the sector.

Boyle (20.2%), Ballina (20%) and Castlebar (19.1%) have the highest shares working in Wholesale & Retail in the region. These, and other towns with a high share, are important rural service centres located quite some distance from larger centres and serving wide rural hinterlands.  The sector is least important for Strandhill, Newmarket-on-Fergus and Moycullen; all are towns located close to large urban centres which are likely their main retail centre.

Fig. 2: Percentage of total employment in the Wholesale & Retail sector in towns in the Western Region, 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016: Profile 11 – Employment, Occupations and Industry, Table EB030

Self-employment in Wholesale & Retail

The Western Region is characterised by greater self-employment in Wholesale & Retail than the national average (15.5% of total employment in the sector is self-employment compared with 12.7% in the state).  Every western county, except Galway City, also has an above average share of self-employment, meaning the sector in the region is characterised by more family or owner/ manager run businesses, likely smaller in scale.

The share of self-employment declined in all western counties (except Sligo) between 2011 and 2016. This indicates a changing composition of the sector with fewer family or owner/manager run Wholesale & Retail businesses and the expansion of multiples and chain stores with a growing share of those working in the sector being employees.

Employment in Wholesale & Retail sub-sectors

Census data on employment in the Wholesale & Retail sector is sub-divided into 17 separate activities.  For ease of presentation here these are grouped into five broad areas: Motor trades; Wholesale; Food/beverage retail; Clothing/footwear retail; and All other retail.[1]

In 2016, the largest sub-sector in the Western Region was ‘Food/beverage retail’ (Fig. 3) accounting for 27.7% of all employment in the Wholesale & Retail sector. The largest element of this is supermarkets.  The next largest sub-sector is ‘All other retail’ (e.g. furniture, computers, petrol stations etc.) followed by ‘Wholesale’.  The relative importance of the five sub-sectors differs across counties. Generally, ‘Food/beverage retail’ is the largest with close to 30% working in this sub-sector in Clare and Leitrim.  Two exceptions are Galway City and Roscommon where ‘All other retail’ is bigger.

Fig. 3: Percentage of total Wholesale & Retail employment in each sub-sector in Western Region and state, 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016: Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ011

The sub-sectors have performed differently over time. For the Western Region, ‘Motor trades’ saw the most significant jobs growth between 2011 and 2016 reflecting strong recent growth in car sales and recovery from substantial job losses during the recession. ‘Clothing/footwear retail’ was the only other area to show some growth with the other three sub-sectors declining in the region.  This is in contrast to the national picture where all sub-sectors grew except ‘Food/beverage retail’.

Key Policy Issues

Wholesale & Retail plays a critical role in the regional and rural economy as it is more widely dispersed than many other sectors. It is a highly visible sector and its performance has a major impact on the viability and vibrancy of towns.  It also provides important job options for people with lower skill levels and younger people.  There has been growing policy interest in this sector in the past number of years. Some of the key policy issues include:

  • Increased consumer mobility & rural areas: The trend of travelling to large urban centres to avail of wider retail choice presents opportunities for the region’s largest centres but may have negative consequences for small and medium-sized rural towns.
  • Town centre renewal: Towns are trying to adapt to their changing role. Retail is just one of the services they provide and for many it is declining in relative importance.  Taking a broad approach to town centre renewal is critical to making towns more attractive retail and service destinations.
  • Growth of online sales: Online sales continue to grow but the majority of spending leaks out of Ireland. While online can be seen as a threat to traditional retail, it also presents an opportunity to expand beyond local markets.
  • Declining self-employment: While self-employment remains higher in the region than elsewhere, it is declining. Fewer family or owner/manager run enterprises impacts on the local distinctiveness of the retail offering of individual towns.
  • Quality of employment and skills development: While Wholesale & Retail offers many high quality jobs, it also employs a lot of younger and lower skilled workers. Improving the quality and security of jobs in this sector is important for worker rights and also for the sector’s ability to adapt to emerging trends.

Opportunities exist to grow online activity and to restructure the retail and service offering of towns to meet changing consumer needs.  However, grasping these opportunities will depend on proactive policy to support the sector, a willingness to adapt among retailers, increased capacity for businesses to compete with larger national or global retailers and a collaborative approach to help towns adapt to their changing function.

More detailed analysis and discussion of these policy issues are available in ‘Wholesale & Retail in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile

Pauline White

[1] Appendix 1 of the report provides data for all 17 activities.

Enterprise in the Western Region 2016

Earlier this week we published our latest 2-page WDC Insights publication.  ‘Enterprise in the Western Region 2016’ analyses the latest data from the CSO’s Business Demography which measures active enterprises in 2016.  This data assigns enterprises to the county where they are registered with Revenue, so if they have multiple locations (e.g. banks, chain stores) they are only counted as one enterprise in whichever county they are headquartered (often Dublin).   Therefore the county data presented here measures businesses which are registered in the Western Region.

In 2016 there were 54,410 total enterprises registered in the Western Region.

To examine the size of enterprises, we can only consider ‘business economy’ enterprises which are a subset of total enterprises (excluding Education, Health, Arts & Entertainment and Other Services).  There were 42,737 ‘business economy’ enterprises in the Western Region in 2016 and 92.7% were micro-enterprises.  Roscommon (94.6%) and Leitrim (94.4%) have the highest shares of micro-enterprises in the state.

Between 2008 and 2016 there was a 4.3% decline in the number of ‘business economy’ enterprises in the Western Region, compared with 3.9% growth in the rest of the state (all other counties) (Fig. 1).  Donegal, Mayo and Roscommon suffered the largest declines in enterprise numbers over the period.

The 2016 data confirms an ongoing recovery in enterprise numbers that began in 2014, with all counties experiencing an increase over that two-year period, Clare and Donegal most strongly.  Although all western counties (and all but seven counties nationally) still had fewer enterprises in 2016 than they had in 2008.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in ‘business economy’ enterprises in western counties, Western Region and rest of state, 2008-2016 and 2014-2016.  Source: CSO, Business Demography 2016

Compared with the rest of the state, the Western Region has a higher share of enterprises in traditional sectors, as well as local and public services (Fig. 2).  With 1 in 5 enterprises in the region involved in Construction, it is the region’s largest enterprise sector and plays a larger role in the region’s enterprise profile. Accommodation & Food Service is another area where the region has a significantly greater share of enterprises, an indication of the important role of tourism.

The knowledge intensive services sectors are of less significance to the region’s enterprise profile, with lower shares in Professional Services, Information & Communications and Financial Services.

The relative importance of sectors to the enterprise profile of individual western counties varies, although Construction and Wholesale & Retail are the two largest for all counties, with Professional Services third largest for all western counties except Donegal where Accommodation & Food Service is third.

Fig. 2: Percentage of total enterprises in each sector in the Western Region and rest of state, 2016. Source: CSO, Business Demography 2016

As noted above, the period 2014-2016 showed growth in enterprise numbers. At a sectoral level, there was growth in all sectors in the region except for a small decline in Transportation & Storage.  The largest percentage growth, albeit from a low base, was in Financial Services with an increase of 15% in the number of enterprises registered in the region, followed by Real Estate (11.5%) and Administrative Services (8%).

For these three sectors, the growth in the region was higher than in the rest of the state, with the number of Financial Services firms actually declining elsewhere in that time. The region also experienced stronger growth than the rest of the state in Industry, Education, Professional Services and Arts & Entertainment.

The CSO also produces data for a composite ‘ICT’ sector which combines elements of ICT hardware manufacturing with IT services, the number of ICT enterprises in the Western Region increased by 11.4% between 2014 and 2016 compared with 9.8% growth in the rest of the state.

The profile of the Western Region’s enterprise base contributes to a number of the issues and challenges faced by the region’s SMEs which the WDC highlighted in its recent submission to the Seanad’s public consultation on SMEs in Ireland. See the blog post here.

Download ‘Enterprise in the Western Region 2016’ here.

Nuts about NUTS!

Anyone not familiar with regional policy or regional statistics always gets a bit of a laugh when we start talking about NUTS. It actually stands for Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) and this system of defining territorial units for statistics across the EU was created by Eurostat. The NUTS classification got legal status in 2003.

The concept of NUTS is that each country in the EU is divided into different territorial areas at descending levels. So in the case of Ireland, the country as a whole is classified as NUTS Level 1, this is then broken into a number of large regions which are NUTS Level 2 (or NUTS2), these are further broken into smaller regions which are NUTS Level 3 (or NUTS3) and then local authority areas are below that (called LAU, or Local Administrative Unit).

In 2003, when the NUTS categories were introduced, Ireland was divided into two NUTS2 regions – the Southern & Eastern region and the Border, Midland & West region (called the BMW which also raised a few laughs). These two larger regions were further sub-divided into eight smaller NUTS3 regions.

When the 2014 Local Government Act was introduced, which made a number of changes to administrative boundaries in Ireland, the Government through the CSO applied to Eurostat to revise Ireland’s NUTS2 and NUTS3 statistical regions to match these new boundaries. The changes to the NUTS boundaries were given legal status in 2016.

The Labour Force Survey for Quarter 1 2018, published on 20 June, was the first time that the CSO published regional statistics based on these new regional divisions. For the Labour Force Survey they published backdated data, using the new regional boundaries, back to 2012.

Much of the data published by the CSO does not include any regional breakdown, but gradually the CSO will begin to apply the new regional classification to data which it does publish on a regional basis. One of the most anticipated will be the County Incomes and Regional GDP data which we have blogged about previously.

What are the new NUTS?

Instead of two NUTS2 regions, Ireland is now divided into three NUTS2 regions. These correspond to the areas covered by the three Regional Assemblies established under the 2014 Act – Northern & Western, Southern, Eastern & Midland . In the Map below these are coloured in blue, red/orange and green respectively.

Each of these three NUTS2 regions is composed of groups of NUTS3 regions, shown by different shades in map below. The main changes at NUTS3 level are the transfer of South Tipperary from the South-East NUTS3 region into the Mid-West NUTS3 region (following the amalgamation of North and South Tipperary Councils) and the movement of Louth from the Border NUTS3 region to the Mid-East NUTS3 region.

 

Map of new NUTS2 and NUTS3 regions in Ireland. Louth and Tipperary are cross-hatched to indicate their move from one NUTS3 region to another. Source: Reverb Studios/NWRA https://blog.reverbstudios.ie/2016/04/27/ireland-regions-map-vector/

 

The new structure is:

NUTS2 Northern & Western composed of NUTS3 West (Galway, Mayo, Roscommon) and NUTS3 Border (Donegal, Sligo, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan)

NUTS2 Southern composed of NUTS3 Mid-West (Clare, Limerick, Tipperary), NUTS3 South East (Wexford, Waterford, Carlow, Kilkenny) and NUTS3 South West (Cork, Kerry)

NUTS2 Eastern & Midland composed of NUTS3 Dublin, NUTS3 Mid-East (Wicklow, Kildare, Meath, Louth) and NUTS3 Midlands (Offaly, Laois, Westmeath, Longford).

The CSO has published an Information Note on the revisions.

Implications

The introduction of the new regional statistical areas has a number of implications. As the three Regional Assemblies are responsible for developing and implementing new Regional Spatial & Economic Strategies (to give effect to the National Planning Framework at regional level), having access to official statistics which align with this regional structure will be invaluable in the finalisation of the RSES and their ongoing monitoring.

As the three NUTS2 regions are now smaller than the previous two NUTS2 regions it may be easier to identify and understand differences and comparisons among the regions. Some statistics are only published at the NUTS2 level, such as expenditure on Research & Development, and previously interpretation of this data was somewhat meaningless given the huge disparity between the BMW region (with one university) and the Southern & Eastern region (with all the others). The three new regions may provide additional insights.

At the same time, looking at the NUTS2 level can hide very considerable inter-regional differences probably most apparent in the Eastern & Midland region. The latest Labour Force Survey showed an unemployment rate of 5.3% in Dublin compared with 8% in the Midland region. This highlights the value of analysis at the NUTS3 regional level.

The movement of county Louth from the Border NUTS3 region to the Mid-East NUTS3 region is probably the most significant change. Given Louth’s location on the Dublin-Belfast corridor and its key role within Dublin’s catchment, it always made sense to include it, along with Wicklow, Kildare and Meath, as part of the Greater Dublin Area, however statistically this was not possible as it was included in the Border region which stretched across to Donegal. Louth’s inclusion in the Border region made this one of the most heterogeneous NUTS3 regions, and its statistics among the most difficult to interpret at times. It will be interesting to see the impact of Louth’s move on both regions.

Pauline White

Educational attainment in the Western Region

A recently published ESRI Research Bulletin, ‘The local factors that affect where new businesses are set up’ summarises their analysis of new firms setting up in Ireland. Data from the Department of Business, Enterprise and Innovation (DBEI) on the number of start-up firms each year in 190 localities, all outside of the Greater Dublin Area, is linked to data on local characteristics thought to be important to business location. This data is used to develop models of how much each factor (or combination of factors) contributes to the number of business start-ups in a given place and time.

The authors state that the results of this analysis show that

‘Educational attainment of local residents is highly attractive to start-ups; we use the share of the population with a third-level qualification as an indicator for this, and it has the largest effect of the factors in our models.’

The analysis also shows that broadband access is a significant factor

‘However, a key finding is that broadband’s effect on start-ups depends on the education level of an area’s population. Only areas with enough highly qualified staff seem to enjoy a boost in start-ups when they have broadband network access.’

This analysis clearly points to the importance of human capital in the location decision of new business start-ups. Of course the direction of causality is a challenge, new businesses are attracted to areas with a highly skilled population, but highly skilled people will only remain/move to an area if suitable job opportunities exist.

The latest WDC Insights, published by the WDC last week (27 March), ‘Census 2016: Education Levels in the Western Region’ is therefore very timely, as it examines the level of educational attainment of the adult population of the Western Region and its seven counties.

Highest level of education completed

Overall, the Western Region displays a lower educational profile, with a smaller share of its adult population (aged 15+ years and who have ceased education) having third level qualifications and a greater share having low levels of education (Fig. 1) than the rest of the state. 13.4% of adults in the Western Region have only completed primary education compared with 11.1% in the rest of the state. The region’s older age profile contributes to this.

At the highest levels of education the difference between the Western Region and the rest of state is quite substantial e.g. 8.5% in the Western Region have a postgraduate degree/diploma compared with 11.7% in the rest of the state. Given the importance of third level education for business location and stimulating overall economic growth, this presents a challenge for the region.

Fig. 1: Percentage of population (aged 15+ years and whose full-time education has ceased) by the highest level of education completed in the Western Region and rest of state, 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016 Profile 10 – Education, Skills and the Irish Language, Table EA003

Highest level of education completed in western counties

There are significant differences across western counties in the share of the population with a third level qualification (Fig. 2).  At 55.2%, Galway City has the second highest share of residents with a third level qualification (Advanced Certificate/Completed Apprenticeship and higher) in Ireland. It is behind Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown but ahead of Fingal, Dublin City and Kildare. Within the region, Galway County, Clare and Sligo have the next highest shares of third level graduates, illustrating a strong concentration around Galway / Limerick and also in Sligo, clearly showing the influence of larger urban centres.

Donegal has the highest share of its population with no formal education or primary only (21.9%) in the State, with Mayo, Leitrim and Roscommon next highest in the region. This is partly due to greater reliance on sectors traditionally associated with lower qualifications.

In general, the counties offering fewer graduate employment opportunities tend to have weaker educational profiles, with many of those with higher qualifications having left these areas. This presents a double challenge for such areas – the weaker educational profile makes it more difficult to attract new business start-ups, while the lack of suitable job opportunities makes the area less attractive to those with higher qualifications. Often in such areas, it is the public sector (education, health, public administration) which presents the most significant graduate employment opportunities. Stimulating greater demand for highly qualified staff among private enterprise in these areas, as well as supporting opportunities for self-employment is required.

Fig. 2: Percentage of population (aged 15+ years and whose full-time education has ceased) in western counties by highest level of education completed, 2016. Source: CSO, Census 2016 Profile 10 – Education, Skills and the Irish Language, Table EA003

Conclusion

Overall the Western Region continues to display a lower educational profile than the rest of the state. Given the key role of human capital in regional development, this is a significant challenge for the region and in particular more rural counties.  A number of factors including the region’s older age profile and its sectoral pattern of employment – smaller shares working in sectors which demand higher qualifications (e.g. professional services, ICT, finance) and more working in sectors traditionally characterised by lower qualifications (e.g. hospitality, agriculture) – strongly influence its educational profile.

Galway City shows a very different educational pattern however with the second highest share of third level graduates in Ireland. This is both cause and effect of its recent strong economic performance. The sectoral pattern of employment in Galway City differs from the rest of the Western Region with a high share working in ICT and medical devices manufacturing which demand higher qualifications, the presence of NUI Galway is another key contributor.

Download the latest WDC InsightsCensus 2016: Education Levels in the Western Region

 

Self-employment – What does the Census tell us?

Regular followers of the WDC Insights blog will know that self-employment is a topic we’ve examined a number of times before, drawing on Quarterly National Household Survey data.  However this can only tell us what is happening in the Western Region as a whole, not in the individual counties.

The publication of Census 2016 – Summary Results Part 2, included some initial data on labour force status including self-employment. Again, as mentioned in our previous post on Principal Economic Status, it must be remembered that the labour market definitions used in the QNHS and in the Census are different, so the figures are not directly comparable.  In the Census, self-employed are referred to as ‘Employer or own account worker’.

Share of self-employed in workforce 

In 2016, according to the Census, there were 61,107 employers or own account workers (self-employed) living in the Western Region. This was 18.3% of all working people in the region. As we’ve mentioned before, self-employment is a particularly important source of employment in the Western Region.

From Fig. 1 it is clear that there is a very strong spatial pattern to self-employment. The State average is that 15.6% of those in employment are employers/own account workers.  The cities are where this is least common. Only 10% or less of workers in Cork and Dublin cities are self-employed. Galway city is next lowest at 11.1% and shows a very different pattern to the rest of the Western Region.

Besides these three cities, it is the other Dublin local authority areas, counties in the Greater Dublin Area and the other two cities (Limerick and Waterford) which have the lowest incidence of self-employment. Indeed the 11 areas with the lowest share of self-employment are the five cities and the Mid-East.

Fig. 1: Percentage of all ‘at work’ who are employer/own account worker by county, 2016. Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 – Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ003: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=EZ003&PLanguage=0

 

At the other end of the spectrum are the most rural counties. Co Kerry has the highest share of self-employment nationally at 21.1%, followed by Leitrim (20.3%), Cavan (19.9%) and Roscommon (19.9%).  In total, five of the Western Region counties are in the top  ten in terms of share of self-employment, with Mayo (19.6%), Galway county (19.5%) and Clare (19.5%) also having almost 1 in 5 of their workers self-employed.

The strong spatial pattern of self-employment in Ireland is related to many factors but notably the sectoral and occupational pattern of employment. Agriculture is a major influence, with construction trades also having high shares of self-employed. These sectors play a more significant role in the economies of rural counties. The relative lack of alternative employment opportunities, especially in the more remote rural areas, means that more people choose (or are necessitated) to turn to the self-employment route.  The WDC will be conducting further analysis of the sectoral and occupational data from the Census and its link with employment status, over the coming months.

Change in the share self-employed

In every county in Ireland, a smaller share of the workforce was self-employed in 2016 compared with five years earlier.  The national average declined from 16.9% of workers to 15.6%, with a decline from 19.9% to 18.3% in the Western Region (Fig. 2).

Leitrim, Galway county, Roscommon, Mayo and Clare all had shares above 20% in 2011, with only Leitrim remaining over 20% by 2016.  Among the western counties, Sligo had the smallest change in the share self-employed, declining from 18.2% down to 18%. From Fig. 2 it is also clear how strongly Galway city differs from the rest of the region.

 

Fig. 2: Percentage of all ‘at work’ who are employer/own account worker in western counties, Western Region, State and Rest of State, 2011 and 2016. Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 – Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ003: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=EZ003&PLanguage=0

 

One of the key reasons for the declining share of self-employment in the inter-censal period is the recovery in the jobs market.  During the depth of the recession 2008-2011 employment declined hugely.  Self-employment was not quite as impacted as some people who lost their job turned to self-employment, existing employers and own account workers may have been able to sustain their own jobs while having to let to employees, and there was the continuation of the trend of some jobs becoming contract/self-employment that would previously have been employees. Therefore as overall job numbers fell, the relative importance of self-employment as a share of total employment remained strong. As the jobs recovery began from 2012 and more employment opportunities emerged, the relative importance of self-employment declined.

Change in numbers self-employed

From Fig. 3 it is clear that between 2011 and 2016 the number of employees grew far more strongly than the number of self-employed. Nationally the number of employees in 2016 was 12.9% higher than in 2011, whereas the number of self-employed was only 2.3% higher.  In the Western Region the number of self-employed actually declined in this period, down -1% while the number of employees grew by 9.8%.  It is notable that for both forms of employment, the Western Region’s performance was weaker than the State average and the Rest of State.  The decline in the numbers self-employed in the region is of some concern given its continuing greater significance in the labour market, especially in more rural counties (see Fig. 1 above).

 

Fig. 3: Percentage change in number of employer/own account workers in western counties, Western Region, State and Rest of State, 2011-2016. Source: CSO, Census of Population 2016 – Summary Results Part 2, Table EZ003: http://www.cso.ie/px/pxeirestat/Statire/SelectVarVal/Define.asp?maintable=EZ003&PLanguage=0

 

Across the region, Mayo, Galway county, Roscommon and Leitrim, the four counties where self-employment continues to play the largest role in their labour market (see Fig. 1) and the most rural, experienced declines in the actual number of people self-employed between 2011-2016.  All other western counties had some growth in the numbers self-employed with the strongest growth in Galway City (2.8%), which nevertheless continues to have a low share of self-employed.

In all cases the growth in self-employment was always substantially less than the growth in the number of employees.  The main exception to this was Sligo, which had very low growth in employees at only 2.6%. Indeed Sligo had the lowest growth in employee numbers in the State in this period.

Conclusion 

While the relative importance of self-employment within the labour market declined between 2011-2016, largely due to the strengthening jobs market, it remains a very significant form of employment. In the five most rural western counties of Leitrim, Roscommon, Mayo, Galway county Clare, 1 in 5 of those at work, work for themselves.  Nationally there is a very strong spatial pattern of higher rates of self-employment in rural counties, with the lowest shares in the cities and Mid-East.

Some of the region’s most rural counties experienced a decline in the numbers self-employed between 2011 and 2016, the underlying reasons for this will only be apparent when the sectoral and occupational pattern of employment change in these counties is explored.

 

 

Pauline White