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Uneven regional impact of Ireland’s jobs recovery

There was a lot of discussion of the jobs recovery during the election campaign. In fact ‘Jobs’ was consistently ranked No. 2 in Google searches related to the Irish election this year (just behind Taxes). And much of the discussion was about where those jobs were being created.

The results of this year’s Census will give a great opportunity to really interrogate the spatial patterns of Ireland’s recent jobs performance and what has happened since 2011, especially to consider how any recovery has benefitted rural areas, villages, small towns, disadvantaged urban areas etc. However those results will not be available until 2017 so in the meantime we need to rely on survey based data, which is limited in its availability at regional or county level.

As the labour market is extremely complex, it’s difficult to fully capture that complexity, especially at smaller spatial scales where a single employer or event can have a major impact. In this blog post therefore I’ve taken a very broad look at regional job trends to try to provide a snapshot of what’s happening. The latest available regional employment data was published last week (CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 4 2015) and is used here.

Percentage change in employment 2006-2010 and 2011-2015

Fig. 1 shows the percentage change in the number of people at work in each of the NUTS3 regions. It compares two five-year periods, the crisis (Q4 2006 – Q4 2010) and the recovery (Q4 2011 – Q4 2015). As we know, during the crisis the South East, Midlands and Border were particularly hard hit by job losses. This included people who had been commuting from these regions into Dublin, many of whom had bought houses at the edges of the ever expanding Dublin commuter belt. Intimately linked to this, these regions also had a high reliance on the construction sector.

It was the Mid-East and West which had the smallest employment declines, the strength of Galway and its medical devices cluster is known to have contributed to this in the West. However, one of the most noticeable patterns in Fig. 1 is that the Mid-West and West do not seem to be benefitting from the jobs recovery, having employment decline in both periods. For a number of other regions, the growth they have experienced between 2011 and 2015 is less than their previous percentage decline. This is the case for the Border, South-East, South-West and Mid-East.  Only the Midlands has experienced stronger jobs growth than its earlier decline.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in employment by NUTS3 region, Q4 2006 – Q4 2010 and Q4 2011 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Fig. 1: Percentage change in employment by NUTS3 region, Q4 2006 – Q4 2010 and Q4 2011 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Regional employment trends 2006-2015

Fig. 2 shows the number of people in employment in each of the NUTS3 regions except Dublin (which is excluded due to scale) from 2006 to 2015. The South West, with 284,000 has the highest employment of the regions shown. The South-West shows a clear pattern of decline followed by gradual recovery, but in 2015 remains below its 2007 peak. The South-East, Border and Midlands follow a similar pattern as does the Mid-East though it did have a slight decline in 2015. The only region to regain its 2007 level of employment is the Midlands.

Again, the West and Mid-West stand out as having a different experience. While they had a similar decline from 2007, their employment trends do not show any real signs of recovery. For the Mid-West, employment has remained almost unchanged since 2012, while in the West it has declined notably since 2013.

Fig. 1: Employment by NUTS3 region (excluding Dublin), Q4 2006 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Fig. 1: Employment by NUTS3 region (excluding Dublin), Q4 2006 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

The reasons for the weak performance of the West and Mid-West would need to be further explored. In their 2015 end of year statement, Enterprise Ireland reported that the North-West, Mid-West and West had the lowest jobs growth in companies assisted by the agency, while the poor performance of the North-West region in total agency assisted employment since 2005 has been discussed in a previous blog. The Western Region clearly faces some very serious challenges in its ability to fully benefit from the national jobs recovery.

Others have also been examining the uneven regional distribution of jobs growth, such as PublicPolicy.ie. It is a topic that clearly must be a priority for the next Programme for Government and central to the development of the new National Planning Framework, which will have to be taken up by the new Government and Minister.

Pauline White

 

The changing face of export sector jobs

The nature of Ireland’s exporting sector – and jobs in that sector – has been changing over the past decade (or more), with an ever expanding role for international services. The shift towards a greater share of service jobs is of course evident across the entire economy, but is particularly noticeable in the exporting sector as an increasing number of new job announcements are service-based. The so-called Silicon Docks area of Dublin is where this pattern can be most clearly seen.

Is this change in the nature of export sector jobs occurring to the same extent in the Western Region? To analyse what’s happening at a regional and county level, we’ll use the Annual Employment Survey 2014 conducted by the Department of Jobs, Enterprise & Innovation (special run of county data). This counts all jobs in companies which have received any assistance from Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland or Udarás na Gaeltachta (which are primarily exporting companies).

Assisted jobs – Manufacturing v Services

Comparing the broad sectoral structure of agency assisted jobs in 2005 (Fig. 1) shows how the pattern differed between the Western Region and the rest of the state. In 2005, 77.4% of assisted jobs in the Western Region were in manufacturing, with Traditional and Modern Manufacturing both having a similar share of around 30%. In the rest of the state, a lower share (66.7%) was in manufacturing. The pattern of a greater role for manufacturing in the Western Region’s export sector was firmly in place at that time.

Fig. 1: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2005 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

Fig. 1: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2005 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

By 2014 (Fig. 2) the pattern in the rest of the state had changed substantially with manufacturing’s share declining to 54.4% of jobs. Whereas the balance between manufacturing and services changed very little in the Western Region with manufacturing still accounting for 74.7% of export employment. The share of export service jobs only rose slightly from 22.6% to 25.3%.

Fig. 2: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

Fig. 2: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

In the rest of the state, in 2005 the ratio of manufacturing to international services jobs was exactly 2:1 but by 2014 it had shifted far closer to 1:1. For the Western Region however manufacturing continues to dominate export sector jobs at a rate of 3:1.

While the total share of export jobs in manufacturing in the Western Region changed little between 2005 and 2014, the composition of those jobs has changed. Modern Manufacturing has greatly increased its share of assisted jobs to 35%, while the shares of both Traditional and Primary/Agri-food manufacturing declined. The decline in Traditional Manufacturing in particular was closely tied to declining demand from construction, although more recent figures show some recovery in elements of this sector such as precision engineering.

The growing role for Modern Manufacturing indicates an improving level of technology and value in the region’s manufacturing sector which can be seen by the role of manufacturing in the region’s GVA.   In the latest GVA figures for the West region, 40.2% of its GVA came from Manufacturing – the second highest share nationally with only the South West having a higher share. In the Border it was 28.4%. See the WDC’s recent report on regional income and output.

Dominance of manufacturing in export businesses in western counties

This pattern of greater dominance of manufacturing in the export sector jobs profile is even stronger in some individual western counties (Fig. 3). In Mayo, Roscommon and Sligo over 85% of assisted jobs are in manufacturing. While its share declined slightly between 2005 and 2014 in these counties, overall there was little sign of growth in international services employment in these areas.

Donegal and Leitrim are the western counties with the lowest shares of their export sector jobs in manufacturing, but both are still above the rest of state average. The strong increase in the share of assisted jobs in manufacturing in Leitrim between 2005 and 2014 mainly resulted from a decline in international services jobs, a pattern which can also be seen to a lesser extent in Clare.

Among the western counties, Donegal and Galway showed the most significant declines in the share of jobs in manufacturing and consequent rise in the share of international services jobs between 2005 and 2014. These two counties appear to be the ones most closely following the national trend towards a greater role for international services.

Fig 3 Agency assisted jobs in manufacturing 2005-2014

Fig. 3: Total agency assisted jobs in manufacturing in western counties, 2005 and 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

Manufacturing activity remains the dominant driver of export sector jobs in the Western Region, at a rate of 3:1, with over 90% working in the sector in some counties. While the role of international services is growing, this is occurring to a far lesser extent in the Western Region.

Addressing issues of significance to the manufacturing sector, such as transport infrastructure, freight, engineering skills, energy, heat etc, must remain central to efforts to sustain and grow the region’s export base, both foreign and indigenous, within the national context of a growing focus on service sector jobs. At the same time, any barriers to the growth of the international services sector, such as high speed broadband, need to be investigated and addressed.

Pauline White

Job creation in 2015 – EI and IDA end-of-year statements

Both Enterprise Ireland (the state agency charged with supporting exporting indigenous enterprises) and the IDA (the state agency responsible for supporting Foreign Direct Investment) issued very upbeat end-of-year statements this week. So, how did the region’s fare?

Enterprise Ireland

In 2015 total employment in EI client companies was 192,223, of which 165,630 were full-time jobs. 2015 saw the highest level of new jobs created by EI supported companies in the agency’s history (about 17 years) with 21,118 new jobs created. Taking into account job losses over the year, the net increase was about half this at 10,169 net new jobs.

Of this net increase in EI client jobs, 64% occurred outside of Dublin. It is notable that the regional performance got considerably greater focus in this year’s end-of-year statement Press Release than has been the case for the past number of years. The evident dissatisfaction in many regional locations caused by a two-speed jobs recovery, which led to the preparation of the regional Action Plans for Jobs and several other regional EI initiatives last year, has led to greater emphasis on regional performance in this year’s end-of-year statement. As indeed has the fact that that performance has been quite strong.

While the overall regional picture may be quite strong, the relative performance across the various regions differs (Fig. 1). The increase in jobs in EI client companies in 2015, compared with 2014, varied from +36% in Dublin to just +2% in the North West. Indeed the North West, Mid-West and West – the three EI regions covering the Western Region – had the lowest increases in job numbers across the country at +2%, +3% and +5% respectively. Sticking with the two-speed jobs recovery metaphor, the Western Region appears to be running at the lowest speed of all, at least in the context of indigenous exporting companies.

Infographic from the Enterprise Ireland end-of-year statement 2015

Fig. 1: Infographic from the Enterprise Ireland end-of-year statement 2015 https://enterprise-ireland.com/en/News/PressReleases/2016-Press-Releases/End-of-Year-Statement-2015.PDF

A previous WDC Insights Blog post highlighted the particular issue of the North West’s poor performance in terms of all types of agency assisted employment (EI, IDA and Udarás). Between 2005 and 2014 the North West experienced the largest decline in agency assisted jobs of any region in Ireland. And now in 2015 it’s the region with the lowest increase in EI supported jobs. This points to a very real concern for the North West’s capacity to generate new employment in export focused businesses, even when Ireland is experiencing some of its strongest ever jobs growth in this type of business.

IDA

2015 saw the highest level of employment in IDA client companies in the organisation’s 67 year history reaching 187,056. A total of 18,983 new jobs were created by their clients during 2015, when job losses are taken into account, there was net job creation of 11,833, slightly higher than that recorded by EI clients.

Similar to EI, the IDA’s end-of-year statement gives more focus to regional performance than in some previous years. Overall, 53% of all jobs created by IDA clients in 2015 were based outside of Dublin, which is an improvement over the 49% share in 2014.

While 53% of new jobs were created outside of Dublin in 2015, this area accounts for 59% of total employment in IDA backed companies. The legacy of past investments in more regional locations continues to influence the overall pattern of FDI jobs, even as new investments tend to be attracted to more urban areas.

The IDA end-of-year statement doesn’t provide detail on the differences across the regions, though it does note that every region experienced an increase in employment in IDA backed companies. It will be very interesting to see the detailed regional breakdown of this performance to see if it shows a similar inter-regional pattern to the EI client companies, with the Western Region having the lowest growth. Although the strength of Galway in attracting FDI means the West region may show a stronger performance in foreign owned employment in 2015 than in Irish owned.

While overall, 2015 was very positive in terms of regional job creation by both EI and IDA client companies, the inter-regional differences in the results for EI companies would indicate that more needs to be done to increase the pace of the jobs recovery in the Western Region.

Pauline White

Public Policy Priorities in 2016 and Beyond

A seminar entitled Ireland’s Policy Priorities after the next General Election, on November 2nd provided a welcome break from the recent talk of Budget giveaways and election promises. Organised by the Policy Institute, Trinity College Dublin, in association with the Public Policy Advisors Network, the aim was to discuss what are and what should be the policy priorities of the next Government.

Some interesting contributions included that from Dan O’Brien, in which he examined medium term policy challenges, noting the ageing demographics generally as well as a sharp decline, over the last five years, in the number of those aged in their twenties. This is attributed to the birth rate as well as emigration and the ageing of that cohort of East European migrants that came here before the crash.

Another key policy theme which is likely to become a policy priority is Ireland’s response to the EU’s 2030 energy and climate change targets. The recent recession, which gave rise to a reduction in emissions (purely because of a contraction in economic activity), relegated the urgency of this policy priority. The return to economic growth will ensure that this is likely to become a more important policy priority. It was proposed that the next Government should appoint a senior Minister with responsibility for the low carbon agenda.

Considering the economics of the next programme for Government, Stephen Kinsella and Ronan Lyons examined the patterns of national economic growth since 2002 – characterised initially from 2002-2007 by a rapidly growing economy, followed by the economic crisis of 2007-2011 which in turn was followed by a period of readjusting public spending and restoring economic confidence in 2011-2016.

It is suggested that the period from 2016 could be that of ‘coming full circle’, with a rapidly growing economy and a need to manage expectations. In learning from our past mistakes, fiscal policy is key and the authors advocate the use of the concept of the Social Return on Investment (SROI). This differs from the current cost based accounting approach to public spending to a more holistic economic approach where the wider costs and benefits of a proposal would be measured. In doing, so the full implications of a cut are captured e.g. €100 cut to caregivers allowance, which then drives people into the public health system thereby negating any ‘savings’. This is arguably a more useful way of evaluating public policy instruments, allowing a more holistic measure of the effects of policies.

Examining Local Government and Spatial Planning, Seán Ó’Riordáin and John Martin point to the need for a new  long-term spatial plan for Ireland (the National Planning Framework) and the need to learn lessons from the National Spatial Strategy. The role of local government in supporting long term development of both rural and urban areas needs to be addressed.

Bringing the concept of Social Return on Investment to the debate on spatial planning, regional, rural and urban development might help advance this debate and the policy choices which arise. In considering investment decisions to support development of the regions, both urban and rural, measuring the Social Return on Investment might lead to different outcomes when considering cuts to or additional investment in various services in regional and rural locations.

For example, decisions on the closure of public services offices in regional and rural locations such as post offices, government outreach offices, garda stations etc. are usually based on cutting operational expenditure, including staff costs or economies of scale.  These cuts can deliver immediate financial savings for the organisation but this narrow view does not take account of the accumulated long term impact on the local economy, the overall needs of society and the disabling impact on local communities.

Taking account of the social rate of return allows for a more holistic economic and societal perspective, rather than solely on the efficiencies and financial savings generated for the individual organisation.  In doing so, the wider impacts beyond a particular locality can be captured, for example, unemployment and migration from rural areas and other regional centres can add to already significant pressures on housing and transport services in the capital. This in turn requires additional investment in infrastructure and services, which is often more expensive to deliver in congested urban areas. Examining all costs and benefits and the social rate of return could help us to make better, more informed choices.

 

The presentations are available at the PPAN website http://www.ppan.ie/latest-news/

Deirdre Frost

Regional & Rural Development at the National Economic Dialogue

A background paper on ‘Regional and Rural Development – Economic recovery for the whole country’ was prepared for a breakout session at last week’s National Economic Dialogue (16-17 July, Dublin Castle).

It set out a few key questions:

  • What can be done to ensure that the benefits of recovery are fairly distributed throughout the country – urban and rural and throughout all the regions?
  • How can we maximise the contribution of both regional and rural development to both a strong economy and a fair society?
  • What are the key environmental and sustainable development challenges?

It will be interesting to see the priority given to regional and rural development given the competing economic and social priorities discussed over the two days. The summary of the discussions is due to be published later this week here.

The background papers for all the breakout sessions are available here.

Breakout 1 Competing Economic and Social Priorities (PDF)

Breakout 2 Economic Growth and Equity in Tax Policy (PDF)

Breakout 3 Putting People First – Economic and Fiscal Policy for our Demographic Outlook (PDF)

Breakout 4 Structural and Labour Market Reform – Opportunities for Economic Growth (PDF)

Breakout 5 Productivity and Skills (PDF)

Breakout 6 Regional and Rural Development Economic recovery for the whole country (PDF)

Breakout 7 Working for the best preparing for the worst (PDF)

Breakout 8 Being a Small Open Economy (PDF)

Pauline White

Worrying trend in the North West’s assisted jobs performance

The Annual Employment Survey for 2014  (PDF 0.25Mb) (formerly the Forfás Annual Employment Survey) was published a few weeks ago by the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation. This data counts agency assisted employment (jobs in companies which have received assistance from Enterprise Ireland, IDA or Udarás na Gaeltachta) and covers the 10 year period 2005-2014. We’ve examined the 2013 report at regional and county level in earlier posts.

In 2014 there were a total of 319,597 agency assisted permanent full-time jobs in the country, up 5.1% from the previous year. These were divided almost evenly between Irish (158,829) and foreign (160,768) owned companies, both of which experienced similar growth since 2013 (5.2% and 4.9% respectively). There were an additional 42,818 agency assisted temporary or part-time jobs.

Every region experienced growth in assisted jobs in 2014. The report contains a section on regional employment trends, which reviews trends for the Border, Midlands and West (BMW), South and East (S&E) and Dublin regions, but the smaller scale regional data contained in the Appendix (PDF 0.3Mb) tells a more interesting story. Particularly as it separates the North West and North East that are usually combined in the diverse Border region.

North West has largest fall in assisted jobs 2005-2014

Over the 10 years 2005-2014 the North West experienced the largest decline in agency assisted jobs of any region in Ireland. Total assisted jobs (both permanent and temporary) fell by -18.2% in the North West (Fig. 1). This was considerably greater than in the second highest, the Mid West, where they fell by -11.9%. The percentage decline in the North West was almost identical to the percentage increase experienced by Dublin over the same period (+18.0%).

The North West’s poor performance is due to the severity of its decline during the recession coupled with slower recovery.  Between 2007 and 2010 the North West had a -17.1% decline in total assisted jobs compared with the -12.2% national average. Then in the most recent year (2013-2014) it had the smallest increase in total assisted jobs of only 2.3%; compared with a national average of 4.5% and over 6% growth in some regions. In the previous year’s report, the North West had similar low growth of just 2.2% between 2012 and 2013, although at that time the South East and Mid West were lower. Both of these regions experienced a strengthening recovery in 2014.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by region, 2013-2014 and 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by region, 2013-2014 and 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

North West’s Irish owned sector performing extremely poorly

The main driver behind the North West’s poor performance is the Irish owned sector. Irish owned assisted jobs in the North West fell by -20.7% between 2005 and 2014 (Fig. 2). This was substantially higher than the next largest decline of -6.7% which occurred in the West. In fact the only other regions with fewer Irish owned assisted jobs in 2014 than in 2005 were the South East (-6.3%) and the North East (-2.7%). Irish owned assisted jobs in the North West only grew by 1.9% between 2013 and 2014, compared with the 5.2% national average.

The North West has not performed well in the foreign owned sector either. The North West’s -14.9% decline in foreign owned assisted jobs over the 10 years was considerably worse than the national performance (5.1% growth). However several other regions had even greater declines (Mid West, Mid East and Midlands), showing the North West’s relatively better record in the foreign owned sector.  The North West’s Irish owned sector, and its very slow current recovery, seems to be at the heart of the region’s weak performance.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by ownership and region, 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by ownership and region, 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

West’s Irish owned sector also struggling

Turning to the West region, it has performed well in recent years, with the third highest increase in foreign owned assisted jobs between 2005 and 2014. However, similar to the North West, the Irish owned sector is not experiencing much recovery with just 1.6% growth between 2013 and 2014 (the lowest of any region) leading to the West experiencing the second poorest overall jobs growth of just 2.4% in 2014.

There seems to be a fundamental issue with the North West and West’s Irish owned assisted sector not benefitting from the current upturn in the economy. The divergent performance of the Irish and foreign owned assisted sector in the Western Region, and the fact that the region’s jobs recovery is relying far more on the foreign owned sector than elsewhere, was highlighted in the WDC’s 2015 report Trends in Agency Assisted Employment in the Western Region  which analysed 2013 data. The 2014 figures indicate that this trend has intensified even further.

The new Action Plan for Jobs for the West and Border regions, due to be published shortly, will need to contain very specific actions and targets to stimulate growth in indigenous exporting companies if this trend is to be reversed.

Pauline White

Women, men and the jobs recovery

In previous posts we’ve looked at the Western Region’s Labour Market and its Sectoral Profile, but how do these patterns differ by gender? Is the current jobs recovery impacting on men and women differently?

While jobs growth is underway in the country as a whole, as well as in the Western Region (though at a lower level), this has mainly been driven by growth in male jobs. Between 2012 and 2014 male employment in the rest of the state (all counties other than the seven counties of the Western Region) increased by 5.9% compared with 1.6% growth in female employment. In the Western Region over the same period, 2.9% growth in male jobs was in contrast to a -0.4% decline in the number of women at work. Women in general do not appear to be benefiting as much as men from the upturn in the labour market, and even more so in the Western Region. Why is this?

Jobs growth in sectors important for male employment, but decline in many female dominated sectors

Much of it stems from the sectoral jobs pattern and the relative performance of male and female dominated sectors. Fig. 1 shows the percentage of male and female jobs in each sector in the Western Region. Public and local services are the main areas of employment for women. The biggest gender difference is in Health and Social Work which accounts for 22% of women’s jobs compared with 4.3% of men’s. A total of 41.1% of working women in the region work in the predominantly public sectors (Health, Education & Public Administration). For men the figure is just 12.9%. Any reduction or lack of growth in public sector jobs has a far greater impact on women’s employment.

Accommodation and Food Service, ‘Other NACE Activities’, Financial, Insurance and Real Estate, and Administrative and Support Services also account for a greater share of women’s than men’s jobs. These are all predominantly local services which have been impacted by limited domestic demand.

Industry, Agriculture, Construction, and Transport and Storage are the most male dominated sectors. Industry accounts for twice as large a share of all male jobs as female. For the others, their share of all female jobs is very low. It is notable that the knowledge services sector of Information and Communication, often seen as a key future growth area, accounts for a far higher share of male than female jobs.

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by sector and gender in the Western Region, Q1 2014 (Source:  CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by sector and gender in the Western Region, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Between 2012 and 2014 half of sectors (7 of 14) experienced an increase in employment in the Western Region (Fig. 2). Industry, Agriculture, Wholesale and Retail, and Accommodation and Food Service, the four largest male employment sectors, all experienced jobs growth. This contributed to the overall 2.9% growth in male jobs between 2012 and 2014.

However jobs in Health and Education declined in the region, while they rose in the rest of the state. Combined with declines in Finance, Other Services and Public Administration (all of which are more important female employers) these sectoral declines contributed to the -0.4% decline in women’s jobs in the region. The contraction of employment in Health and Education in particular has significant implications for women’s jobs, particularly in more rural areas of the region which have higher dependence on these sectors, partly due to limited alternative professional or clerical career opportunities.

Fig. 2: Percentage change in employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2012 to Q1 2014 (Source:  CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Fig. 2: Percentage change in employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2012 to Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Lower female participation

A distinct gender pattern obvious from Fig. 3  and Fig. 4 is the higher proportion of men who are active in the labour force. The region’s male labour force participation rate is 65.2% compared with a female rate of 50.4%. The gender gap in participation rates narrowed during the recession as participation among men, particularly young men, fell very dramatically while female rates remained steady. However 2014 saw some widening of the gender gap again as the female rate declined and the male rate rose. The weaker recent female jobs performance may be contributing to declining female participation in the labour market.

Fig. 3: Economic status of Western Region’s male population aged 15 years and over, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 1. Special run)

Fig. 3: Economic status of Western Region’s male population aged 15 years and over, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 1. Special run)

Higher male unemployment but gap narrowing

Despite the stronger recent growth in male jobs, there is still a far greater number of unemployed men in the region than women – 26,200 compared with 14,400 (Fig. 3 and Fig. 4). The massive increase in unemployment from 2008 was initially concentrated among men, given the job losses in building and related sectors, before spreading more widely across the domestic economy leading to rising female job losses (though at a lower level).

The fall in unemployment since 2012 has been stronger among men than women; meaning that while the unemployment rates for both sexes have declined, the rate of decline has been stronger among men, narrowing the gender gap. In 2012 there was a 5.5 percentage point gap, which narrowed to 4.0 percentage points by 2014 when the region’s male unemployment rate was 13.3% and the female 9.3%. Unemployment continues to be higher among men but the difference is declining.

Fig. 4: Economic status of Western Region’s female population aged 15 years and over, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 1. Special run)

Fig. 4: Economic status of Western Region’s female population aged 15 years and over, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 1. Special run)

Note: The percentages refer to the share of the adult population in each category. Therefore the percentage unemployed is not the same as the unemployment rate which refers to the number unemployed as a percentage of those in the labour force and not of the entire adult population.

Greater part-time working among women

The other key feature of Fig. 3  and Fig. 4 is the far greater share and level of part-time working among women. In 2014 almost twice as many women (52,600) as men (27,500) in the region were working part-time. As a proportion of total employment this was 37.4% of all working women compared with 16.1% of working men. A key aspect is the extent to which part-time working is by choice or involuntary. If a person would prefer to be working full-time (if a full-time job were available) they are considered to be part-time underemployment. For men who are working part-time, 40% are underemployed but for women it is 27%. The extent to which women choose part-time work is very often related to greater caring responsibilities and the availability (or lack) of appropriate and affordable care provision.

For both men and women the share working part-time is higher in the Western Region than the rest of the state. In the case of women, part-time working in the region has increased since 2012 (rising from 35.3% to 37.4%) while it has remained unchanged for women in the rest of the state and declined slightly among men in the region. Not only has total female employment in the region declined since 2012, but a greater proportion of those who are working are working part-time.

This analysis raises serious questions in relation to not only the spatial pattern of the current jobs recovery but also the gender pattern. Women in the Western Region appear to be experiencing the poorest jobs recovery; compared with men and also with women living elsewhere. The concentration of female jobs in public services and the recent employment declines in these sectors in the region seems to be one of the main reasons, a trend that requires further investigation.

Pauline White

The Western Region’s Sectoral Profile

We’ve just published WDC Insights-The Western Region’s Sectoral Profile-April 2015 (PDF 0.2MB) which presents the key findings from The Western Region’s Labour Market 2004-2014-WDC Report March 2015 (PDF 2.5MB) on the region’s sectoral pattern of employment.

Understanding the sectoral pattern of jobs in the region, and recent patterns of sectoral growth and decline, is particularly important to the development of job creation, skills and enterprise policy for the region.

Sector of employment

The two largest employment sectors in the Western Region are Wholesale and Retail, and Industry with around 30% of jobs (Fig. 1).  Of the region’s top seven sectors, all (except Health) account for a greater share of jobs in the region than the rest of the state.  Agriculture and Industry (manufacturing) are considerably more important in the region.  Among the region’s smaller sectors the share working in them in the region is considerably below that in the rest of the state.

In general the Western Region’s jobs profile relies more heavily than the rest of the state on the traditional sectors (Industry, Agriculture and Construction) and local services (Wholesale and Retail, and Accommodation and Food Service) which depend on domestic spending and tourism.  The region’s sectoral jobs pattern is influenced by its largely rural nature.

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2014 (Source:  CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Western Region’s share of jobs by sector

This jobs pattern can also be seen in the region’s share of national total jobs in each sector.  In total 16.5% of all jobs in the state are located in the Western Region (Fig. 2).  Agriculture, Industry and Construction are the sectors where the region makes its largest contribution to national jobs.

The region’s share of all Industry jobs nationally has increased very strongly in recent years from 16% in 2007 to its current 19.5%, due to its relatively more stable jobs performance in the region.  The region’s manufacturing strength is a key national asset and a previous blog post on ‘Trends in Agency Assisted Employment in the Western Region’ highlighted the industrial sub-sectors which have driven the region’s manufacturing strength.

The three knowledge intensive services sectors are where the region accounts for its lowest shares of national jobs.  Less than 10% of all Information and Communication, and Financial, Insurance and Real Estate jobs are based in the region and its share of both has declined since 2012.  Not only does the region have low shares in these sectors but it is losing ground.

Fig. 2: Percentage of total employment in the state based in the Western Region by sector, Q1 2014 (Source:  CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Fig. 2: Percentage of total employment in the state based in the Western Region by sector, Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Recent changes in employment by sector

Between 2012 and 2014 half of sectors (7 of 14) experienced jobs growth in the Western Region (Fig. 3).  Agriculture grew most strongly followed by Professional, Scientific and Technical activities next.  Growth in these sectors contributed to the region’s increasing share of self-employment.  Wholesale and Retail and Accommodation and Food Service also grew as this period coincided with an increase in overseas visitor numbers as well as consumer spending.

The Western Region experienced a far greater jobs decline than the rest of the state across many sectors, including knowledge intensive services and public services.  In the case of Information and Communication, employment fell by nearly 16% in the region but it had the fourth largest growth in the rest of the country (5.2%).  The reasons for the Western’s Region poor, and weakening, jobs performance in this high growth potential sector need to be investigated.

Fig. 3: Percentage change in employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2012 to Q1 2014 (Source:  CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

Fig. 3: Percentage change in employment by sector in the Western Region and rest of the state, Q1 2012 to Q1 2014 (Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2014, Table 2. Special run)

These key aspects of the Western Region’s labour market should inform the development of the upcoming Action Plan for Jobs for the West, Border and Mid-West regions.  The region’s labour market characteristics should influence which policies are prioritised for the region and the sectors of focus for job creation strategies.

Download WDC Insights The Western Region’s Sectoral Profile and full report ‘The Western Region’s Labour Market 2004-2014’ here

Pauline White

 

Note: The CSO has noted concerns over the impact of the new sampling structure on the employment figures for Agriculture. 

Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 1 2004-2014, special run

 

Launch of ‘The Atlas of the Island of Ireland’

‘The Atlas of the Island of Ireland’ was launched last week during the annual CCBS/ICLRD conference in Enniskillen.

In 2011 there was a Census in both the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and this publication combines the data to present maps at a small area (SA) level for a wide range of socio-economic variables for the island of Ireland.

Atlas of the Island of Ireland - cover

Prepared by the All-Island Research Observatory the atlas includes discussion and all-island maps examining:

  1. Population Distribution and Change
  2. Economic Status and Labour Force
  3. Industry of Employment
  4. Education
  5. Transport
  6. Housing
  7. Nationality and Ethnicity
  8. Religion
  9. Health and Caring
  10. All-Island HP Deprivation Index

All of the data is also available online and can be used for data visualisation. The data can be accessed here

The atlas shows that some of the most striking differences across the border in 2011 related to the labour market with Northern Ireland experiencing far lower unemployment rates and higher participation rates. While Wholesale and Retail, Health and Construction were considerably more important sources of employment in the North than the South in 2011, the opposite was true for Agriculture, Finance and Insurance, and Information and Communication.

Another notable pattern was that of Public Administration, Security and Defence which overall was more important in the North, but is also very strong in an area of the North West/Midlands (Donegal, Leitrim, Roscommon, Longford, Offaly and Laois), partly due to limited alternative professional and clerical opportunities.

Health was another area of distinct difference with far higher shares of the population in the South recording their health as Very Good or Good with higher shares in the North giving their health status as Very Bad or Bad. This could be partly related to the younger age profile in the South.

The project was developed under the Evidence-Based Planning theme of the Ireland Northern Ireland Cross-border Cooperation Observatory (INICCO-2) CrosSPlaN-2 funded research programme.

Pauline White

Agency Assisted Employment in the Western Counties

The WDC published its report on ‘Trends in Agency Assisted Employment in the Western Region’ last week. This included an analysis of data for each of the seven western counties. The main findings for the western counties are:

  •  Galway: In 2013, there were 23,650 people working in agency assisted jobs. Galway has the third highest share in Ireland of agency assisted jobs as a share of total jobs at 23.5%. Over 60% of agency assisted jobs in Galway are in foreign owned companies (2013), this is the highest level for the past ten years. Since 2010 employment in assisted foreign owned companies grew by 19% while in Irish owned it only grew 3%. Modern Manufacturing, which includes medical devices and ICT, is Galway’s largest sector and in 2013 reached its highest level with 8,750 permanent full-time jobs.
  • Clare: In 2013, there were 9,250 people working in agency assisted jobs. Clare has the fifth highest share in Ireland of agency assisted jobs as a share of total jobs at 20.3%. Just over 40% of agency assisted jobs in Clare are in foreign owned companies (2013); this is considerably lower than ten years ago. Since 2010 jobs in assisted Irish owned companies in Clare have remained relatively stable, while foreign owned have continued to decline, with some slight recovery in 2013. Traditional Manufacturing is Clare’s largest sector and has grown since 2011, as has Modern Manufacturing. Assisted jobs in the international services sectors are declining however, which has meant that total assisted jobs have not grown.
  • Mayo: In 2013, there were 8,310 people working in agency assisted jobs. The total number in Mayo is close to the 2006/2007 peak and a higher share are now in permanent full-time jobs. Mayo had the second highest growth in agency assisted jobs in the Western Region in 2013 at 4.9%. There was stronger growth in foreign owned companies (6.1%) than Irish owned (2.7%) in that year. Assisted jobs in Mayo are almost evenly divided between foreign and Irish companies. Mayo’s largest assisted employment sector is Modern Manufacturing, which includes medical devices and chemicals, with almost 3,000 permanent full-time jobs. This is its highest level in the past ten years.
  • Donegal: In 2013, there were 7,850 people working in agency assisted jobs. The biggest change in the county over the past ten years is the rise in the share that are permanent full-time from 78% to 86.3% (2004-2013). The total number of agency assisted jobs in Donegal was up 4.4% in 2013. Donegal has the lowest share of its assisted jobs in foreign owned companies in the Western Region at 38.1%, although this is the county’s highest share of the past ten years. While assisted jobs in foreign owned companies have been growing since 2010, those in Irish owned companies showed their first increase since 2007 in 2013. Information and Communications is the assisted sector with the strongest recent jobs growth, up 30.9% between 2010 and 2013.
  • Sligo: In 2013, there were 3,880 people working in agency assisted jobs. 15.3% of total jobs in the county were agency assisted, which is below the state average (19.3%). Of total agency assisted jobs, 12.5% are temporary/part-time. This is below the Western Region average but the highest level in Sligo between 2004 and 2013. Some 55.6% of assisted jobs in Sligo are in foreign owned companies; lower than a decade earlier. Irish owned assisted employment has grown steadily since 2011 and was up 4.8% in 2013. Sligo’s second largest assisted sector – Traditional Manufacturing – has had the strongest recent growth, up a fifth (21.5%) between 2010 and 2013.
  • Roscommon: In 2013, there were 2,360 people working in agency assisted jobs. Roscommon had the highest growth in such jobs in the Western Region in 2013 at 6%. This growth was driven by Irish owned companies. 2013 was the first year that agency assisted jobs grew in Roscommon since 2007; later than in most other counties. In a national context, the county has a low share of agency assisted jobs. Agency assisted jobs in Roscommon are very concentrated in manufacturing. At 51.2%, the share of Roscommon’s agency assisted jobs that are in the Modern Manufacturing sector, which includes medical devices and pharma, is the second highest in Ireland. The sector showed strong growth in 2013 (6.6%), with Traditional Manufacturing also increasing (10.1%).
  • Leitrim: In 2013, there were 1,310 people working in agency assisted jobs. Leitrim has the highest share of its agency assisted jobs in foreign owned companies (62.9%) in the region and is third highest nationally. Despite this, agency assisted jobs in Leitrim declined in each year between 2004 and 2013. All other western counties, except Clare, have seen some recovery since 2010. While total numbers are declining, Irish owned assisted jobs in Leitrim have begun to recover, up 8.4% in 2013. International Services was Leitrim’s largest agency assisted sector for most of the ten years. In 2012 it was surpassed by Traditional Manufacturing which is now the largest. However, the Modern Manufacturing sector has performed best in recent years with permanent full-time jobs up 8.3% in 2013.

Download the two page WDC Insights, full report and 7 county profiles here