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Census 2016 Preliminary Results – What does it say about the Western Region?

The headline figures from the preliminary Census 2016 figures show a population that is growing, nationally by 3.7% over the last 5 years. However it is not evenly spread and it is clear that much of the growth is on the East coast and in urban centres.

Nationally the population is now 4.75 million, an increase of 3.7% on the 2011 figure of 4.58 million. The Western Region’s population grew at a much slower rate, by just 0.9% over the period, to 828,124 – amounting to 7,244 more persons than in 2011.

Where is this growth occurring?

The Map below highlights the spatial distribution of population growth.


popchange

While most counties experienced some level of population growth just three counties, all in the Western Region, witnessed population decline over the five years, namely Donegal (-1.5%), Mayo (-0.2%) and Sligo (-0.1%).

From a Western Region perspective, the other four counties of the Western Region all recorded population increases over the period; Clare (+1.2%), Leitrim (+0.5%), Roscommon (+0.6%), Galway county (+2.2%), Galway city (5.3%).

It is clear from the map that the particularly high growth rates, in excess of 4% are all, apart from Cork and Longford, occurring on the East coast.

Aspects of Population Change

Net migration and natural increases are the two components of population change.

Migration

Migration, especially in an Irish context can vary a lot and is heavily influenced by the rate of economic growth. Nationally net migration over the past 5 years is estimated at -28,558. This compares with net inward migration of 115,800 over the previous five years from 2006-2011.

The migration figures include international migration as well as migration within Ireland. It is clear that a key driver for migratory flows is employment opportunity. As the map below illustrates, most counties – coloured red and orange, experienced net outward migration. Dublin and Cork city along with Kilkenny, Laois and Longford experienced net inward migration. It is most significant in parts of Dublin. All other counties experienced net outward migration and this is particularly stark on the West coast, in Donegal (-6,731), Mayo (-3,246), Galway (-3,168) and Limerick.

Net migration by county 11-16

Natural Increase

The natural increase (births minus deaths) is the other component of population growth or decline. While natural increases are evident across the country, it ranges from an annual average rate of 3.3 per 1,000 in Cork city to a rate of 15 per 1,000 in Fingal. This range is evident in the chart below.

From a Western Region perspective, all counties except Galway city have an annual average rate less than the state average which is 8.5 (on the chart between Offaly and Westmeath).

natural increase by county

So what are the policy implications?

There are many implications across a whole range of policy areas. The greater detail which will be available from the detailed Census outputs later in the year will help inform specific policy areas.

It is clear that, so far, the preliminary results from Census 2016 highlight the need for a new spatial plan which can help direct where population and economic growth should occur. Economic and population growth need to be supported to ensure optimum growth across all regions.

Deirdre Frost

Impact of Sectors on Western Region’s Jobs Recovery

Our last blog post examined the role that sectors play in regional GVA. Sectors also have a huge impact on the pattern of jobs growth.  Following on from our April WDC Insights publication ‘Jobs Recovery in the Western Region’, the WDC has just published new analysis examining the role that sectors have played in recent jobs trends.

‘Impact of Sectors on Western Region’s Jobs Recovery’ examines some of the causes for the region’s slower jobs recovery.

Lower jobs diversity

There is greater concentration of employment in a few sectors in the Western Region.  62.2% of jobs in the region are in its top five sectors (Industry, Health, Wholesale & Retail, Agriculture and Education) compared with 53.6% in the rest of the state.  Greater diversity in employment across sectors is an important aspect of regional resilience and growth.

Traditional and public sectors more important; services less so

The region has higher shares working in the traditional sectors (Agriculture, Construction, Industry) and also Public Services (Health, Education, Public Admin) than in the rest of the state (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2015

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2015

At the same time, there are lower shares employed in Locally Traded (Retail, Accommodation, Transport) and Knowledge (ICT, Finance, Professional) Services.  For Locally Traded Services, as these rely on domestic demand, lower incomes in the region  compared with much of the rest of the state may be a factor in this.  It also helps to explain the region’s higher youth unemployment as these are areas (shops, bars) where young people often find work.

The high-value Knowledge Services sectors is where the region lags the rest of the state most significantly.  These are seen as key sectors for growth and their poor performance is a cause for concern.

Strength in manufacturing

Manufacturing plays a more important role in the region’s employment, accounting for 15.6% of jobs compared with 12.2% in the rest of the state.  Between 2012 and 2015 growth in manufacturing jobs in the Western Region was more than twice that as in rest of state – 8.3% v 3.4% (Fig. 2).  The region’s manufacturing strength has been a key factor in the West’s relatively strong recovery in GVA.  Manufacturing is a key regional strength.

Decline in market services sectors

Between 2012 and 2015 there was jobs decline in the three market services sectors (Administration and Other, Locally Traded and Knowledge) in the Western Region, while they grew elsewhere in the state (Fig. 2).  This is the main reason for the Western Region’s slower jobs recovery.

Fig. 2: Percentage change in employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2012 – Q1 2015

Fig. 2: Percentage change in employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2012 – Q1 2015

Similar to the rest of the state, Agriculture and Construction saw the largest increases in job numbers in the Western Region, driven by strong agri-food exports and a resurgence in building activity.

Conclusion

This WDC Insights shows that slower jobs recovery in the Western Region is mainly due to contraction in market services sectors, in contrast with growth elsewhere.  In every year since 2011, the numbers working in the Western Region in both Knowledge Services and in Administration and Other Services has declined. This was during a time of recovery nationally.

While the region’s strong manufacturing base and Public Services employment have compensated to some extent, it has not been enough to allow the region to enjoy a similar rate of jobs recovery as elsewhere.  Optimising growth across all sectors, and addressing challenges in the market services sectors in particular, will be required for a healthier and more resilient regional labour market.

Pauline White

 

Source: All data taken from a special run of the CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 1 2012-2015 for the seven county Western Region.

Jobs Recovery and the Western Region

New WDC Insights publication

Ireland has been experiencing a gradual recovery in employment since 2012.  While jobs growth is occurring in the Western Region, it is not following the same pattern, nor occurring at the same rate, as elsewhere.

A new WDC Insights publication examines some of the distinctive aspects of the Western Region’s labour market.  Some key points are:

Lower jobs growth:  Between 2012 and 2015, there was 2.8% growth in total employment in the Western Region, less than half the jobs growth experienced in the rest of the state over the same period (6.3%) (Table 1).

Table 1- Selected employment indicators 2012-2015

Jobs growth driven by self-employment:  The jobs growth that is occurring in the region is strongly driven by self-employment.  Between 2012 and 2015 the number of self-employed in the Western Region grew by 13.6%, much higher than the 8.6% increase in the rest of the state.  On the other hand, the number of employees only grew by 0.7% in the region compared with 5.8% growth in the rest of the state over the same period.

Higher youth unemployment rate:  Young people (15-24 yrs) in the Western Region face an unemployment rate of 30.8% compared with 20% for those living in the rest of the country (Fig. 1).  Young jobseekers in the region are facing considerable barriers to accessing a job.

Fig 1 - Youth unemployment rate 2006-2015

The Western Region is experiencing a jobs recovery but this is occurring at a slower pace than elsewhere.  The key role of self-employment in the region’s jobs growth shows that it is a key route to employment, especially in rural areas with fewer job options.

The region’s young people are facing particularly stark labour market challenges.  Young people who are not in employment, education or training (NEET) for an extended period of time, face considerable barriers in accessing work.  This is likely to be compounded by the overall slower jobs recovery occurring in the region.

Download WDC Insights: Jobs Recovery and the Western Region

The West in 1916

For the week that’s in it, we thought we’d turn our attention to 1916.  The CSO recently launched a very interesting resource that’s well worth investigating Life in 1916 Ireland: Stories from statistics that highlights just how much life has changed over the past century.

A lot of the data is for Ireland as a whole, but there’s county information on many topics.  Understandably much of the analysis focuses on living conditions for people in Dublin city at the time of the 1916 Rising, especially those living in the tenements, but some very interesting patterns for the West also emerge.

Shift in population

The past century has seen a fundamental shift in Ireland’s population towards the East coast, with Leinster’s population more than doubling (up 116%).  Munster meanwhile had a 20% increase.  In contrast, both Connacht and the counties of Ulster in the Republic both experienced an 11% fall in their population over the past 100 years.

At a county level, all counties of the Western Region, except Galway and Clare, had a fall in population ranging from -50% in Leitrim to -4% in Donegal (Fig. 1). Within the region, the population tended to shift southwards.

Map of population change in Ireland, 1911-2011

Fig. 1: Change in population by county, 1911-2011. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/people/population/#d.en.94294

Housing conditions

There were 176,659 housing units in the Western Region in 1911. There was a 69% increase over the following century, but this increase is dwarfed by the 222% increase in housing units in the Rest of the State, clearly a consequence of the shifting population patterns.

The region was also characterised by fewer ‘big houses’ with less than 5% of all houses having 10 rooms or more compared with 11.5% in the Rest of the State.  Mayo, Leitrim and Roscommon had the lowest shares of large houses.

At the other end of the scale, there were 10,080 one room dwellings in the Western Region in 1911. If we specifically consider one room dwellings which housed three or more people (Fig. 2), the impact of Dublin’s tenements is clear. Over half of one room dwellings in the city had three or more people.

For the Western Region it was quite a mixed picture with the large rural counties of Donegal and Mayo having the next highest shares after Dublin, while Roscommon and Leitrim had among the lowest.  Birth rates were a key factor here, as Roscommon (18.1 per 1,000 population) and Leitrim (19.2) had some of the lowest birth rates in the country in 1916, while Mayo (21.8) and Donegal (21.2) had among the highest.

Fig. 2: Percentage of one room dwellings with three or more people by county, 1911. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Fig. 2: Percentage of one room dwellings with three or more people by county, 1911. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Seasonal Agricultural Work

The prevalence of large numbers living in one room dwellings in Donegal and Mayo could be linked to the phenomenon of seasonal agricultural workers which was strongest in these counties. In 1914, approximately 13,000 people migrated to Britain for seasonal agricultural work.  The county of origin for 7,246 of these migrants is known and Mayo and Donegal accounted for over 80% of the migrants (4,282 and 1,640 respectively).  As these workers would be absent from the home for long periods, the actual number of people living in some of these one room dwellings during these periods would have been lower.

The CSO quotes the Department of Agriculture & Technical Instruction reporting that labourers “…save usually from half to three-quarters of their earnings, and some return home with as much as £20 saved in the season.” This report also noted that 97% of migrants from Donegal went to Scotland while 93% of the migrants from Mayo went to England and Wales.

Literacy

This pattern of seasonal agricultural work was also likely a factor in these counties having the highest rates of illiteracy in the country with Donegal (16.8%), Galway (15.3%) and Mayo (14.6%) having the highest (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: Percentage of population by literacy level by county, 1911 (note: there were a considerable number of persons where this information was missing). Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Fig. 3: Percentage of population by literacy level by county, 1911 (note: there were a considerable number of persons where this information was missing). Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/society/livingconditions/#d.en.95615 and WDC calculations

Infant Mortality

While the West may have had higher illiteracy rates, one area where it performed well was in infant mortality.  Ireland’s infant mortality rate in 1916 was 81.3 i.e., for every 1,000 babies born during 1916, 81 died before they reached twelve months of age. The infant mortality rate was truly shocking in Dublin City at 153.5, followed by Dublin County at 102.2 and Limerick at 101.1 (Fig. 4).

Counties in the Western Region had the lowest rates of infant mortality with a rate of 34.6 in Roscommon, 45.9 in Leitrim and 51.4 in Mayo. The CSO notes it is likely that higher population densities in urban areas (such as in the tenements in Dublin City) contributed to the spread of diseases. While poverty was widespread in both urban and rural areas, there would have been greater access to fresh air and better quality food in rural areas.

Fig. 4: Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) by county, 1916. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/births/#d.en.97677

Fig. 4: Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) by county, 1916. Source: http://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-1916/1916irl/bmd/births/#d.en.97677

While we’ve highlighted some of the most striking figures showing what life was like in the West in 1916, there’s a lot more you can discover in this fascinating resource.

Pauline White

Uneven regional impact of Ireland’s jobs recovery

There was a lot of discussion of the jobs recovery during the election campaign. In fact ‘Jobs’ was consistently ranked No. 2 in Google searches related to the Irish election this year (just behind Taxes). And much of the discussion was about where those jobs were being created.

The results of this year’s Census will give a great opportunity to really interrogate the spatial patterns of Ireland’s recent jobs performance and what has happened since 2011, especially to consider how any recovery has benefitted rural areas, villages, small towns, disadvantaged urban areas etc. However those results will not be available until 2017 so in the meantime we need to rely on survey based data, which is limited in its availability at regional or county level.

As the labour market is extremely complex, it’s difficult to fully capture that complexity, especially at smaller spatial scales where a single employer or event can have a major impact. In this blog post therefore I’ve taken a very broad look at regional job trends to try to provide a snapshot of what’s happening. The latest available regional employment data was published last week (CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 4 2015) and is used here.

Percentage change in employment 2006-2010 and 2011-2015

Fig. 1 shows the percentage change in the number of people at work in each of the NUTS3 regions. It compares two five-year periods, the crisis (Q4 2006 – Q4 2010) and the recovery (Q4 2011 – Q4 2015). As we know, during the crisis the South East, Midlands and Border were particularly hard hit by job losses. This included people who had been commuting from these regions into Dublin, many of whom had bought houses at the edges of the ever expanding Dublin commuter belt. Intimately linked to this, these regions also had a high reliance on the construction sector.

It was the Mid-East and West which had the smallest employment declines, the strength of Galway and its medical devices cluster is known to have contributed to this in the West. However, one of the most noticeable patterns in Fig. 1 is that the Mid-West and West do not seem to be benefitting from the jobs recovery, having employment decline in both periods. For a number of other regions, the growth they have experienced between 2011 and 2015 is less than their previous percentage decline. This is the case for the Border, South-East, South-West and Mid-East.  Only the Midlands has experienced stronger jobs growth than its earlier decline.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in employment by NUTS3 region, Q4 2006 – Q4 2010 and Q4 2011 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Fig. 1: Percentage change in employment by NUTS3 region, Q4 2006 – Q4 2010 and Q4 2011 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Regional employment trends 2006-2015

Fig. 2 shows the number of people in employment in each of the NUTS3 regions except Dublin (which is excluded due to scale) from 2006 to 2015. The South West, with 284,000 has the highest employment of the regions shown. The South-West shows a clear pattern of decline followed by gradual recovery, but in 2015 remains below its 2007 peak. The South-East, Border and Midlands follow a similar pattern as does the Mid-East though it did have a slight decline in 2015. The only region to regain its 2007 level of employment is the Midlands.

Again, the West and Mid-West stand out as having a different experience. While they had a similar decline from 2007, their employment trends do not show any real signs of recovery. For the Mid-West, employment has remained almost unchanged since 2012, while in the West it has declined notably since 2013.

Fig. 1: Employment by NUTS3 region (excluding Dublin), Q4 2006 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

Fig. 1: Employment by NUTS3 region (excluding Dublin), Q4 2006 – Q4 2015. Source: CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q4 2015

The reasons for the weak performance of the West and Mid-West would need to be further explored. In their 2015 end of year statement, Enterprise Ireland reported that the North-West, Mid-West and West had the lowest jobs growth in companies assisted by the agency, while the poor performance of the North-West region in total agency assisted employment since 2005 has been discussed in a previous blog. The Western Region clearly faces some very serious challenges in its ability to fully benefit from the national jobs recovery.

Others have also been examining the uneven regional distribution of jobs growth, such as PublicPolicy.ie. It is a topic that clearly must be a priority for the next Programme for Government and central to the development of the new National Planning Framework, which will have to be taken up by the new Government and Minister.

Pauline White

 

The changing face of export sector jobs

The nature of Ireland’s exporting sector – and jobs in that sector – has been changing over the past decade (or more), with an ever expanding role for international services. The shift towards a greater share of service jobs is of course evident across the entire economy, but is particularly noticeable in the exporting sector as an increasing number of new job announcements are service-based. The so-called Silicon Docks area of Dublin is where this pattern can be most clearly seen.

Is this change in the nature of export sector jobs occurring to the same extent in the Western Region? To analyse what’s happening at a regional and county level, we’ll use the Annual Employment Survey 2014 conducted by the Department of Jobs, Enterprise & Innovation (special run of county data). This counts all jobs in companies which have received any assistance from Enterprise Ireland, IDA Ireland or Udarás na Gaeltachta (which are primarily exporting companies).

Assisted jobs – Manufacturing v Services

Comparing the broad sectoral structure of agency assisted jobs in 2005 (Fig. 1) shows how the pattern differed between the Western Region and the rest of the state. In 2005, 77.4% of assisted jobs in the Western Region were in manufacturing, with Traditional and Modern Manufacturing both having a similar share of around 30%. In the rest of the state, a lower share (66.7%) was in manufacturing. The pattern of a greater role for manufacturing in the Western Region’s export sector was firmly in place at that time.

Fig. 1: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2005 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

Fig. 1: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2005 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

By 2014 (Fig. 2) the pattern in the rest of the state had changed substantially with manufacturing’s share declining to 54.4% of jobs. Whereas the balance between manufacturing and services changed very little in the Western Region with manufacturing still accounting for 74.7% of export employment. The share of export service jobs only rose slightly from 22.6% to 25.3%.

Fig. 2: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

Fig. 2: Total agency assisted jobs in each broad sector in the Western Region and Rest of the State, 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

In the rest of the state, in 2005 the ratio of manufacturing to international services jobs was exactly 2:1 but by 2014 it had shifted far closer to 1:1. For the Western Region however manufacturing continues to dominate export sector jobs at a rate of 3:1.

While the total share of export jobs in manufacturing in the Western Region changed little between 2005 and 2014, the composition of those jobs has changed. Modern Manufacturing has greatly increased its share of assisted jobs to 35%, while the shares of both Traditional and Primary/Agri-food manufacturing declined. The decline in Traditional Manufacturing in particular was closely tied to declining demand from construction, although more recent figures show some recovery in elements of this sector such as precision engineering.

The growing role for Modern Manufacturing indicates an improving level of technology and value in the region’s manufacturing sector which can be seen by the role of manufacturing in the region’s GVA.   In the latest GVA figures for the West region, 40.2% of its GVA came from Manufacturing – the second highest share nationally with only the South West having a higher share. In the Border it was 28.4%. See the WDC’s recent report on regional income and output.

Dominance of manufacturing in export businesses in western counties

This pattern of greater dominance of manufacturing in the export sector jobs profile is even stronger in some individual western counties (Fig. 3). In Mayo, Roscommon and Sligo over 85% of assisted jobs are in manufacturing. While its share declined slightly between 2005 and 2014 in these counties, overall there was little sign of growth in international services employment in these areas.

Donegal and Leitrim are the western counties with the lowest shares of their export sector jobs in manufacturing, but both are still above the rest of state average. The strong increase in the share of assisted jobs in manufacturing in Leitrim between 2005 and 2014 mainly resulted from a decline in international services jobs, a pattern which can also be seen to a lesser extent in Clare.

Among the western counties, Donegal and Galway showed the most significant declines in the share of jobs in manufacturing and consequent rise in the share of international services jobs between 2005 and 2014. These two counties appear to be the ones most closely following the national trend towards a greater role for international services.

Fig 3 Agency assisted jobs in manufacturing 2005-2014

Fig. 3: Total agency assisted jobs in manufacturing in western counties, 2005 and 2014 (DJEI, 2015, Annual Employment Survey 2014, special run)

Manufacturing activity remains the dominant driver of export sector jobs in the Western Region, at a rate of 3:1, with over 90% working in the sector in some counties. While the role of international services is growing, this is occurring to a far lesser extent in the Western Region.

Addressing issues of significance to the manufacturing sector, such as transport infrastructure, freight, engineering skills, energy, heat etc, must remain central to efforts to sustain and grow the region’s export base, both foreign and indigenous, within the national context of a growing focus on service sector jobs. At the same time, any barriers to the growth of the international services sector, such as high speed broadband, need to be investigated and addressed.

Pauline White

Job creation in 2015 – EI and IDA end-of-year statements

Both Enterprise Ireland (the state agency charged with supporting exporting indigenous enterprises) and the IDA (the state agency responsible for supporting Foreign Direct Investment) issued very upbeat end-of-year statements this week. So, how did the region’s fare?

Enterprise Ireland

In 2015 total employment in EI client companies was 192,223, of which 165,630 were full-time jobs. 2015 saw the highest level of new jobs created by EI supported companies in the agency’s history (about 17 years) with 21,118 new jobs created. Taking into account job losses over the year, the net increase was about half this at 10,169 net new jobs.

Of this net increase in EI client jobs, 64% occurred outside of Dublin. It is notable that the regional performance got considerably greater focus in this year’s end-of-year statement Press Release than has been the case for the past number of years. The evident dissatisfaction in many regional locations caused by a two-speed jobs recovery, which led to the preparation of the regional Action Plans for Jobs and several other regional EI initiatives last year, has led to greater emphasis on regional performance in this year’s end-of-year statement. As indeed has the fact that that performance has been quite strong.

While the overall regional picture may be quite strong, the relative performance across the various regions differs (Fig. 1). The increase in jobs in EI client companies in 2015, compared with 2014, varied from +36% in Dublin to just +2% in the North West. Indeed the North West, Mid-West and West – the three EI regions covering the Western Region – had the lowest increases in job numbers across the country at +2%, +3% and +5% respectively. Sticking with the two-speed jobs recovery metaphor, the Western Region appears to be running at the lowest speed of all, at least in the context of indigenous exporting companies.

Infographic from the Enterprise Ireland end-of-year statement 2015

Fig. 1: Infographic from the Enterprise Ireland end-of-year statement 2015 https://enterprise-ireland.com/en/News/PressReleases/2016-Press-Releases/End-of-Year-Statement-2015.PDF

A previous WDC Insights Blog post highlighted the particular issue of the North West’s poor performance in terms of all types of agency assisted employment (EI, IDA and Udarás). Between 2005 and 2014 the North West experienced the largest decline in agency assisted jobs of any region in Ireland. And now in 2015 it’s the region with the lowest increase in EI supported jobs. This points to a very real concern for the North West’s capacity to generate new employment in export focused businesses, even when Ireland is experiencing some of its strongest ever jobs growth in this type of business.

IDA

2015 saw the highest level of employment in IDA client companies in the organisation’s 67 year history reaching 187,056. A total of 18,983 new jobs were created by their clients during 2015, when job losses are taken into account, there was net job creation of 11,833, slightly higher than that recorded by EI clients.

Similar to EI, the IDA’s end-of-year statement gives more focus to regional performance than in some previous years. Overall, 53% of all jobs created by IDA clients in 2015 were based outside of Dublin, which is an improvement over the 49% share in 2014.

While 53% of new jobs were created outside of Dublin in 2015, this area accounts for 59% of total employment in IDA backed companies. The legacy of past investments in more regional locations continues to influence the overall pattern of FDI jobs, even as new investments tend to be attracted to more urban areas.

The IDA end-of-year statement doesn’t provide detail on the differences across the regions, though it does note that every region experienced an increase in employment in IDA backed companies. It will be very interesting to see the detailed regional breakdown of this performance to see if it shows a similar inter-regional pattern to the EI client companies, with the Western Region having the lowest growth. Although the strength of Galway in attracting FDI means the West region may show a stronger performance in foreign owned employment in 2015 than in Irish owned.

While overall, 2015 was very positive in terms of regional job creation by both EI and IDA client companies, the inter-regional differences in the results for EI companies would indicate that more needs to be done to increase the pace of the jobs recovery in the Western Region.

Pauline White

Public Policy Priorities in 2016 and Beyond

A seminar entitled Ireland’s Policy Priorities after the next General Election, on November 2nd provided a welcome break from the recent talk of Budget giveaways and election promises. Organised by the Policy Institute, Trinity College Dublin, in association with the Public Policy Advisors Network, the aim was to discuss what are and what should be the policy priorities of the next Government.

Some interesting contributions included that from Dan O’Brien, in which he examined medium term policy challenges, noting the ageing demographics generally as well as a sharp decline, over the last five years, in the number of those aged in their twenties. This is attributed to the birth rate as well as emigration and the ageing of that cohort of East European migrants that came here before the crash.

Another key policy theme which is likely to become a policy priority is Ireland’s response to the EU’s 2030 energy and climate change targets. The recent recession, which gave rise to a reduction in emissions (purely because of a contraction in economic activity), relegated the urgency of this policy priority. The return to economic growth will ensure that this is likely to become a more important policy priority. It was proposed that the next Government should appoint a senior Minister with responsibility for the low carbon agenda.

Considering the economics of the next programme for Government, Stephen Kinsella and Ronan Lyons examined the patterns of national economic growth since 2002 – characterised initially from 2002-2007 by a rapidly growing economy, followed by the economic crisis of 2007-2011 which in turn was followed by a period of readjusting public spending and restoring economic confidence in 2011-2016.

It is suggested that the period from 2016 could be that of ‘coming full circle’, with a rapidly growing economy and a need to manage expectations. In learning from our past mistakes, fiscal policy is key and the authors advocate the use of the concept of the Social Return on Investment (SROI). This differs from the current cost based accounting approach to public spending to a more holistic economic approach where the wider costs and benefits of a proposal would be measured. In doing, so the full implications of a cut are captured e.g. €100 cut to caregivers allowance, which then drives people into the public health system thereby negating any ‘savings’. This is arguably a more useful way of evaluating public policy instruments, allowing a more holistic measure of the effects of policies.

Examining Local Government and Spatial Planning, Seán Ó’Riordáin and John Martin point to the need for a new  long-term spatial plan for Ireland (the National Planning Framework) and the need to learn lessons from the National Spatial Strategy. The role of local government in supporting long term development of both rural and urban areas needs to be addressed.

Bringing the concept of Social Return on Investment to the debate on spatial planning, regional, rural and urban development might help advance this debate and the policy choices which arise. In considering investment decisions to support development of the regions, both urban and rural, measuring the Social Return on Investment might lead to different outcomes when considering cuts to or additional investment in various services in regional and rural locations.

For example, decisions on the closure of public services offices in regional and rural locations such as post offices, government outreach offices, garda stations etc. are usually based on cutting operational expenditure, including staff costs or economies of scale.  These cuts can deliver immediate financial savings for the organisation but this narrow view does not take account of the accumulated long term impact on the local economy, the overall needs of society and the disabling impact on local communities.

Taking account of the social rate of return allows for a more holistic economic and societal perspective, rather than solely on the efficiencies and financial savings generated for the individual organisation.  In doing so, the wider impacts beyond a particular locality can be captured, for example, unemployment and migration from rural areas and other regional centres can add to already significant pressures on housing and transport services in the capital. This in turn requires additional investment in infrastructure and services, which is often more expensive to deliver in congested urban areas. Examining all costs and benefits and the social rate of return could help us to make better, more informed choices.

 

The presentations are available at the PPAN website http://www.ppan.ie/latest-news/

Deirdre Frost

Regional & Rural Development at the National Economic Dialogue

A background paper on ‘Regional and Rural Development – Economic recovery for the whole country’ was prepared for a breakout session at last week’s National Economic Dialogue (16-17 July, Dublin Castle).

It set out a few key questions:

  • What can be done to ensure that the benefits of recovery are fairly distributed throughout the country – urban and rural and throughout all the regions?
  • How can we maximise the contribution of both regional and rural development to both a strong economy and a fair society?
  • What are the key environmental and sustainable development challenges?

It will be interesting to see the priority given to regional and rural development given the competing economic and social priorities discussed over the two days. The summary of the discussions is due to be published later this week here.

The background papers for all the breakout sessions are available here.

Breakout 1 Competing Economic and Social Priorities (PDF)

Breakout 2 Economic Growth and Equity in Tax Policy (PDF)

Breakout 3 Putting People First – Economic and Fiscal Policy for our Demographic Outlook (PDF)

Breakout 4 Structural and Labour Market Reform – Opportunities for Economic Growth (PDF)

Breakout 5 Productivity and Skills (PDF)

Breakout 6 Regional and Rural Development Economic recovery for the whole country (PDF)

Breakout 7 Working for the best preparing for the worst (PDF)

Breakout 8 Being a Small Open Economy (PDF)

Pauline White

Worrying trend in the North West’s assisted jobs performance

The Annual Employment Survey for 2014  (PDF 0.25Mb) (formerly the Forfás Annual Employment Survey) was published a few weeks ago by the Department of Jobs, Enterprise and Innovation. This data counts agency assisted employment (jobs in companies which have received assistance from Enterprise Ireland, IDA or Udarás na Gaeltachta) and covers the 10 year period 2005-2014. We’ve examined the 2013 report at regional and county level in earlier posts.

In 2014 there were a total of 319,597 agency assisted permanent full-time jobs in the country, up 5.1% from the previous year. These were divided almost evenly between Irish (158,829) and foreign (160,768) owned companies, both of which experienced similar growth since 2013 (5.2% and 4.9% respectively). There were an additional 42,818 agency assisted temporary or part-time jobs.

Every region experienced growth in assisted jobs in 2014. The report contains a section on regional employment trends, which reviews trends for the Border, Midlands and West (BMW), South and East (S&E) and Dublin regions, but the smaller scale regional data contained in the Appendix (PDF 0.3Mb) tells a more interesting story. Particularly as it separates the North West and North East that are usually combined in the diverse Border region.

North West has largest fall in assisted jobs 2005-2014

Over the 10 years 2005-2014 the North West experienced the largest decline in agency assisted jobs of any region in Ireland. Total assisted jobs (both permanent and temporary) fell by -18.2% in the North West (Fig. 1). This was considerably greater than in the second highest, the Mid West, where they fell by -11.9%. The percentage decline in the North West was almost identical to the percentage increase experienced by Dublin over the same period (+18.0%).

The North West’s poor performance is due to the severity of its decline during the recession coupled with slower recovery.  Between 2007 and 2010 the North West had a -17.1% decline in total assisted jobs compared with the -12.2% national average. Then in the most recent year (2013-2014) it had the smallest increase in total assisted jobs of only 2.3%; compared with a national average of 4.5% and over 6% growth in some regions. In the previous year’s report, the North West had similar low growth of just 2.2% between 2012 and 2013, although at that time the South East and Mid West were lower. Both of these regions experienced a strengthening recovery in 2014.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by region, 2013-2014 and 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by region, 2013-2014 and 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

North West’s Irish owned sector performing extremely poorly

The main driver behind the North West’s poor performance is the Irish owned sector. Irish owned assisted jobs in the North West fell by -20.7% between 2005 and 2014 (Fig. 2). This was substantially higher than the next largest decline of -6.7% which occurred in the West. In fact the only other regions with fewer Irish owned assisted jobs in 2014 than in 2005 were the South East (-6.3%) and the North East (-2.7%). Irish owned assisted jobs in the North West only grew by 1.9% between 2013 and 2014, compared with the 5.2% national average.

The North West has not performed well in the foreign owned sector either. The North West’s -14.9% decline in foreign owned assisted jobs over the 10 years was considerably worse than the national performance (5.1% growth). However several other regions had even greater declines (Mid West, Mid East and Midlands), showing the North West’s relatively better record in the foreign owned sector.  The North West’s Irish owned sector, and its very slow current recovery, seems to be at the heart of the region’s weak performance.

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by ownership and region, 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

Fig. 1: Percentage change in total assisted employment by ownership and region, 2005-2014. Source: DJEI (2015), Annual Employment Survey 2014, WDC analysis

West’s Irish owned sector also struggling

Turning to the West region, it has performed well in recent years, with the third highest increase in foreign owned assisted jobs between 2005 and 2014. However, similar to the North West, the Irish owned sector is not experiencing much recovery with just 1.6% growth between 2013 and 2014 (the lowest of any region) leading to the West experiencing the second poorest overall jobs growth of just 2.4% in 2014.

There seems to be a fundamental issue with the North West and West’s Irish owned assisted sector not benefitting from the current upturn in the economy. The divergent performance of the Irish and foreign owned assisted sector in the Western Region, and the fact that the region’s jobs recovery is relying far more on the foreign owned sector than elsewhere, was highlighted in the WDC’s 2015 report Trends in Agency Assisted Employment in the Western Region  which analysed 2013 data. The 2014 figures indicate that this trend has intensified even further.

The new Action Plan for Jobs for the West and Border regions, due to be published shortly, will need to contain very specific actions and targets to stimulate growth in indigenous exporting companies if this trend is to be reversed.

Pauline White