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Business Sectors and Employment in the Western Region: Exploring some potential impacts of the Covid 19 shock

While the detail and scale of the consequences of the Covid-19 containment measures are not yet clear, it is useful to consider, using available data, how the Western Region might be impacted.  There are many unknowns including in relation to the duration of the public health emergency and the speed and extent to which jobs will return once restrictions are lifted.

In this short series of blog posts I look at some of the WDC’s previous analyses[1] of our regional economy and society from the perspective of the potential impacts of Covid 19, so that we can begin to consider areas of priority for support and stimulation when opportunities again become available.  The first post in the series examined sectoral employment data from the perspective of the current economic shock, highlighted key areas of employment in the region and some potential implications of the crisis.

In this post, business demography data on enterprises, and those engaged in these in the Western Region, is examined from the perspective of the current economic shock, highlighting areas of potential vulnerability in relation to enterprises and the people they employ.  The data is from the CSO’s 2017 Business Demography report published last year[2].  This is the most recently available data.

 

Potential economic consequences of the containment measures.

As the Central Bank [3] and others have noted, the economic shock triggered by responses to Covid 19 has resulted in the widespread shutdown of businesses, mainly in the market services sectors of the economy with labour-intensive sectors, such as retail trade, food and beverage activities and accommodation, tourism and travel particularly affected.  These, as is discussed below, are key business and employment sectors in the Western Region.

The widespread restrictions on travel and mobility, along with financial market turmoil, have led to an erosion of confidence and heighted uncertainty[4] which in turn has led to a sharp contractions in the level of output, household spending, corporate investment and international trade.  The OECD notes that within service sectors, activities involving travel, including tourism, and direct contact between consumers and service providers, such as hairdressers or house purchases, are clearly adversely affected by restrictions on movement and social distancing.  Similarly, most retailers, restaurants and cinemas have also closed, although takeaway sales and on-line sales may prevent a full cessation of activity in some businesses.  Non-essential construction work is also being adversely affected.  The OECD assessment estimated that, taken together, the affected sectors account for between 30-40 per cent of total output in most economies.  They estimated that the potential initial impact on activity of partial or complete shutdowns on activity in Ireland would be just over 15% (over a number of years), which is the the least affected of the selected advanced and emerging market economies analysed.

More recently the Stability Programme Update prepared by the Department of Finance outlines that as the economic landscape has fundamentally changed in Ireland and across the globe, Irish GDP could fall by 10.5 per cent this year and Modified Domestic Demand, perhaps the best indicator of domestic economic conditions, is projected to fall by 15 per cent this year.  The labour market will the brunt of the economic shock, going from full employment to a peak unemployment rate of 22% in the current quarter, with annual unemployment rate in 2020 projected to be in the region of 14%.  If recovery in second half of year gains momentum, next year with economic growth is projected to be 6 per cent, and numbers out of work to fall below 10 per cent.  The Update notes that recovery over the second half of 2020 rests on successful virus containment and stresses that the level of uncertainly is such that the projections in the should be considered a scenario rather than a forecast as such.

 

What are key business areas in the Western Region?

Against the background of these economic projections it is useful to examine the type and scale of enterprises in the Western Region, those engaged in these in the Western Region and the sectors the businesses operate in.

The latest CSO Business Demography data on enterprises in the Western Region (2017) shows there were 57,951 enterprises[5] registered in the seven-county Western Region (location of an enterprise is based on its address as registered with Revenue[6]).  In total, more than a quarter of a million people were working for enterprises registered in the region (255,261).

Of all enterprises registered in the Western Region 92.9% were micro-businesses employing fewer than 10 people. This was a slightly higher share than nationally (92.1%). As each micro-enterprise is small in scale however, despite their accounting for 92.9% of enterprises, only 35.8% of those who work for an enterprise, works for a micro-enterprise.  Of course, direct employment is just one of the economic and social impacts of micro-enterprises and they play a particularly vital role in smaller centres and more rural areas, as well as in particular sectors e.g. Construction, Professional Services.

By their nature, larger firms (employing 10 or more people) play a more significant employment role, accounting for 64.2% of everyone who works for an enterprise, despite only accounting for 7.1% of firms.

In terms of the number of enterprises, Construction is the largest sector in the Western Region accounting for 20.4% of active enterprises registered in the region.  Wholesale & Retail (15%) and Professional, Scientific & Technical activities (9.4%) are next largest (see Fig 1 below).  They are also the four sectors (including Accommodation and Food Service (7.8%)) nationally with the most enterprises  but greater concentration in the Western Region is evident with the top three enterprise sectors accounting for 52.6% of enterprises in the Western Region and 49.8% in the State as a whole.  These top sectors, in terms of business numbers include many sole traders and micro-enterprises e.g. construction trades, solicitors, architects, small shops, B&Bs and restaurants and cafes.

 

Figure 1: Percentage of enterprises in each sector in 2017, in the Western Region and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

The picture is different when we look at the number of people engaged in enterprises (Fig. 2)[7], and this is key to understanding the consequences of the current crisis.  Wholesale & Retail is the largest enterprise sector in employment terms (17.8% of all people working in enterprises in the Western Region) followed by Industry (17.2%) which is mainly Manufacturing, and Accommodation & Food Service (13.4%).  These three sectors include many larger businesses e.g. factories, hotels, large retail stores, so account for a greater share of employment than of enterprises.

The Western Region is more reliant on more vulnerable sectors for employment than the rest of the state although there is variation within sectors.  For example, the extent to which the ‘Industry’ sector will be affected is not clear.  The strong med tech sector in parts of the Region may provide some stability in this area.  Likewise, parts of wholesale and retail (food supply) are performing well while other retail trade has ceased.  Nonetheless, as the ESRI noted, many outlets particularly in the retail and hospitality sectors have simply stopped trading, while the fall in consumption and restrictions on international and domestic travel also mean that tourism (Accommodation and Food Service) is likely to collapse over the quarter[8].

The fourth most important sector in terms of employment both in the Western Region and nationally is Health and Social care which will also provide some stability.

 

Figure 2: Percentage of people engaged in enterprises in each sector in 2017, in the Western Region and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

Concentration is more evident in relation to employment with the top four sectors nationally employing just over 50% of those working in enterprises, but they account for more than 60% of employment in the Western Region (and just over 66% in Sligo and almost 64% in Mayo).

Enterprise and employment in enterprise in Western Region counties

There will be variations in the impact of the response to Covid 19 across the Western Region counties, reflecting differences in the composition of enterprise, employment and output.  For example, where tourism or non food retail is relatively important these areas will potentially be affected more severely by shutdowns and limitations on travel.  In contrast, counties with strong med tech industry, greater reliance on agriculture (not covered by this data) or significant food retail may experience smaller initial effects from containment measures.

Looking at the key sectors in terms of enterprise numbers (Fig 3) in the Western Region counties shows Construction, Wholesale and Retail and Professional and Technical services have most enterprises in all Western Region counties and nationally.  As mentioned before, this is in part because of the prevalence of sole traders and very small business in these sectors.  As only essential construction is currently allowed to continue, and most retail (aside from food) is also closed, these businesses are experiencing the immediate shock of the restrictions from the pandemic, and are also likely to suffer from a fall in demand which will follow rising unemployment.  There is also likely to be a fall in demand for many Profession and Technical services in future, but at present a significant proportion of these jobs may be done remotely from home.

 

Figure 3: Percentage of enterprises in key sectors in 2017, in Western Region counties and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

Looking at top sectors for those engaged in enterprises, the importance of the most vulnerable sectors (Wholesale and Retail and Accommodation and Food Service) is clear.  They are in the top four (see Fig 4) in all Western Region counties (and nationally).  While for most western counties Wholesale & Retail, Industry and Accommodation & Food Service are the three largest enterprise sectors for employment, for Galway and Roscommon, Health & Care is in the third biggest employer in the enterprises being examined.

 

Figure 4: Percentage engaged in enterprises in key sectors in 2017, in Western Region counties and State

Source: CSO, Business Demography 2017,Business Demography / BRA18 / Published 2019

 

Industry is the most important sector for employment in Sligo (28.3%) and Clare (18.8%), with Wholesale and Retail particularly important in Mayo (22%) and Roscommon (22%).  Accommodation and Food service is particularly important in Donegal (15.9%) and Leitrim (14.3%).  The Health and Social Care sector may provide some stability especially in counties where it is relatively important (Roscommon (15%) and Galway (13.7%).

 

Conclusion

As the Central Bank noted, when it emerges the pace of recovery is likely to depend on factors such as the extent to which households and firms have been scarred by the downturn, the degree to which precautionary behaviour unwinds, the recovery in employment and incomes and, possibly also, the degree of stimulus in place to provide some impetus to recovery.

Clearly micro-enterprises, which play a very significant role in the Western Region’s enterprise base, are likely to have fewer reserves making them more vulnerable to the cessation of trading.  While enterprises in the Region were hit very hard during the previous recession, there had been recovery, accelerating in recent years. It is to be hoped that recovery in the Region following this crisis will be quicker than that which followed the financial crash.

While there will be some variation in the impact of the Covid 19 restrictions in Western Region counties, the consequences for the Region will be significant.  As the ESRI noted, there has been an almost total decline in certain types of economic activity from mid-March onwards. Many outlets particularly in the retail, food and hospitality sectors have simply stopped trading and in these key sectors remote working is generally not an option.  It is not clear how many of these will be in a position to resume trading when the shutdown period has ended but it is likely that some of these enterprises will not reopen.

Enterprises form the backbone of the local and regional economy.  Supporting the establishment and growth of sustainable enterprises across the Western Region is a key priority for the WDC and we hope that this analysis of enterprise data will help to inform ourselves and other organisations, individuals and policy makers about enterprise patterns in the Region.

This series of posts brings together previous WDC analyses and examines them from the perspective of the possible impacts of the Covid 19 pandemic on the economy.  In the next post on the topic I will look at what we know about regional sectoral output and how it might be affected.  The posts aim to develop our understanding of what may be happening at a regional level and what will need to be done after the public health emergency, but they are early interpretations and should be viewed as a work in progress rather than a definitive commentary.

 

Helen McHenry

 

The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of the WDC.

 

If you are interested in more detailed analysis of the Business Demography data (carried out in 2019), a comprehensive ‘Profile of Enterprise in …’ document is also available for each Western Region county. Each 12-page Profile includes data on:

  • Enterprise Trends 2008-2017: Active Enterprises and Persons Engaged
  • Employees as a % of Persons Engaged 2008-2017
  • Enterprises, Persons Engaged and Employees by Enterprise Size 2017
  • Change in Enterprises and Persons Engaged by Enterprise Size 2008-2017
  • Active Enterprises by Sector in 2017 and Change 2015-2017
  • Persons Engaged by Sector in 2017 and Change 2015-2017
  • Employees as a % of Persons Engaged by Sector 2017

Download the ‘Profile of Enterprise in …’ CLARE, DONEGAL, GALWAY, LEITRIM, MAYO, ROSCOMMON and SLIGOKey Statistics’ for each Western Region county (one page) is also available for download from the WDC.

If you are interested in reading more about the economic impacts of Covid 19 and government responses the ESRI scenario for the rest of the year is here.  The OECD has updated their report Covid-19: SME Policy Responses and has published an Evaluation of the initial impact of COVID-19 containment measures on economic activity.  The Department of Finance published its projections for key indicators in the Stability Programme Update.

[1] Thanks to my former colleague Pauline White for her original data analysis.

[2] https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/bd/businessdemography2017/

[3] https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/qb-archive/2020/quarterly-bulletin—q2-2020.pdf

[4] https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=126_126496-evgsi2gmqj&title=Evaluating_the_initial_impact_of_COVID-19_containment_measures_on_economic_activity

[5] ‘Total Enterprises’ includes all economic sectors except Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing, Public Administration & Defence, Households as Employers and Extraterritorial Organisations(that is NACE Rev 2 sectors B to N(-642) and P-S).  in the discussion and the charts some of the sector titles have been abbreviated.

[6] The geographical breakdown for enterprises is an approximation. The county breakdown is based on the address at which an enterprise is registered for Revenue purposes, rather than where the business actually operates from.  In particular, where an enterprise has local units in several counties (e.g. a supermarket chain), but one head office where all employment is registered, all its employees are counted against the county where the head office is located.

[7] People ‘engaged’ in enterprises which included both those owning and operating the business as well as those employed by it.  In this post the term employed covers all those engaged in the enterprise.

[8]  Quarterly Economic Commentary Spring 2020

Agency Workers – How Many Are There and Where do they Work?

Introduction

There is much discussion about the growth of ‘atypical’ forms of work – such as e-working, remote working, the gig, shared economy and temporary work etc.

The WDC has previously examined various aspects of atypical ways of working, identifying the extent to which it occurs in the Western Region, whether patterns differ to that elsewhere in the country, all aimed at informing labour market policy and identifying recommendations to support better employment opportunities in the Region.

The WDC Policy Briefing (No. 7) e-Working in the Western Region: A Review of the Evidence, examined the extent of e-work (also referred to as teleworking or remote working) in the Western Region, see here. Working at or from home can take different forms and this Policy Briefing examines e-working in traditional employer-employee relationships. The WDC also published case-studies of e-working in the Western Region which highlights a wide range of e-working experiences, see here.

A two page WDC Insights paper examined the gig or shared economy and how broadband and online platforms have enabled new forms of work and income generation to emerge. The paper examines the evidence on the extent to which Gig economy exists in the Western Region, download here.

In the third of the series, the WDC examined working from home. Based on Census of Population data which identifies whether people work ‘mainly at or from home’. The Census definition is self-assigned and can include those who work full-time from home or working from home on at least three days of a five day working week, see here. The WDC have suggested a change to Census 2021, to which the CSO has agreed, which will include a question asking people to list the number of days per week in which they work from home.

Agency Worker Employment

Another aspect of atypical working includes agency worker employment. Sometimes it is suggested that this type of employment is on the rise and is often less secure or more precarious than traditional employment forms.  Agency work, especially that which is temporary, is often considered insecure employment. Is it a phenomenon largely associated with periods of high unemployment and a fragile economy where employers are reluctant to recruit permanent employees or is it a feature of the business model of some companies?

Research conducted for the European Parliament found evidence of an increase in temporary employment as a consequence of the global economic crash a decade ago. The report noted, The financial crisis and its aftermath has been one driver affecting risk of precariousness in Europe. As employers and employees find themselves operating in a more competitive and uncertain context post-crisis, new hirings have increasingly taken place on the basis of temporary and marginal part-time contracts. This rise in atypical contracting has meant that job insecurity has increased significantly in some countries, such as Portugal, Spain, Ireland, Latvia and Greece, involuntary temporary work has increased significantly in Ireland, but also in Latvia and involuntary part-time working has increased significantly in Italy, Lithuania, Spain, Ireland, Latvia and Greece. The link to the full report (5.4MB) is here.

Examining more recent data at a regional level in Ireland, the CSO provide a broad regional breakdown at NUTS 3 level. In this blogpost we review the latest CSO data on agency worker employment examining trends and how the regions compare, see here for full release published in August 2019.

CSO definition

The CSO Labour Force Survey captures the levels of agency workers by asking the following question of all employees in the LFS: Do you have a contract with an employment agency that placed you in your current job and your salary? Yes or No. Responses are therefore based on self-reporting.

Nationally, in Q4 2017, there were 56,200 employees classified as agency workers, and in Q1 2019 the number had decreased to 50,400, a decrease of 5,800.

Examining trends by region, the trends are somewhat different as graph 1 below shows. Both the Northern and Western region and the Eastern and Midland region have a somewhat similar trend, albeit at different levels, unsurprising given the relative size of the numbers employed in each region.

In the Northern and Western Region, (depicted by the black line), the numbers of agency workers at the start of the period was 12,700, there was a decline to 4,300 in Q4 2018 and at the end of the period (Q1 2019) it was 7,500. It should be noted that the LFS is a survey and the results are weighted to conform to population estimates broken down by age, sex and region. Where there are smaller numbers, estimates are considered to have a wider margin of error and so should be treated with caution. In the data above, this wider margin of error has occurred where numbers fall below 7,500.

The Eastern and Midland Region (the orange line), starts with a level of agency workers of 27,000 at the end of 2017. At the end of the period the number of agency workers in the Eastern and Midland region was 22,200.

The Southern region (green line), displays a different trend, starting at 16,500, rising to 20,900 in Q2 2018, dipping at the end of Q4 2018 and then rising again in Q1 2019 to 20,700. It is not clear why the trend in the Southern region is somewhat different and this will be discussed further below.

Regional Share of Agency Workers

Examining agency workers as a share and proportion of all employees, Graph 2 below shows the regional share of employees who are agency workers over the period Q4 2017 to Q1 2019.

At the end of the period, in Q1 2019, the Northern & Western Region accounts for 14.9% of all agency workers in the country, the Southern Region accounts for 41.1% and the Eastern and Midland region accounts for 44%. The respective shares have changed over the last two years, with the Northern and Western Region accounting for a decreased share (22.6% in Q4 2017 to [14.9%] in Q1 2019. The Southern Region has increased its share (from 29.4% in 2017 to 41.1% in Q1 2019.

Proportion of employees who are agency workers

Given the different sizes of each regional labour market it is important to see the extent to which agency workers as a proportion of all employees, varies across time and region. This is illustrated in Graph 3 below.

Nationally (depicted by the blue line), in Q4 2017 agency workers comprised 3% of all employees. This proportion declined to 2.6% at the start of 2019. Both the Northern and Western and Eastern and Midland regions had proportions below the national average.

The Northern and Western region, depicted by the black line, started the period with the highest proportion of employees as agency workers (4.1%), but this has since declined to 1.4% and was recorded at 2.4% in Q1 2019. The Eastern and Midland region trend (depicted by the orange line) is very similar to the national trend albeit at a lower level.

For most of the period, the proportion of employees who are agency workers is the highest in the Southern region (depicted by the green line). At the start of the period under review, Q4 2017, the rate in the Southern region is lower than the national figure – 2.8% and 3.0% respectively. However, from Q1 2018 through to the end of 2019 the proportion of employees that are agency workers is consistently higher in the Southern Region than the national average.

Conclusions

The Southern region comprises the Mid-West (Clare, Limerick & North Tipperary), the South-East (Carlow, Kilkenny, Waterford and Wexford) and the South-West (Cork and Kerry). In the absence of NUTS 3 regional data it is difficult to know whether there may be specific concentrations associated with a concentration in industry sectors that may be more prevalent in the Southern region.

The CSO data does provide other information on the profile of agency worker employment. For example, nationally 52% of agency workers are female. There is a sectoral concentration within the Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing, Industry and Construction sectors where a quarter of all agency employees are employed. There is also a high concentration of agency workers in the Human health and social work activities sector, see here for full release.

Discussions with the CSO indicate it is difficult to ascertain why there is a relatively high share in the Southern region. The CSO point out that the LFS is a survey, the margin of error of the estimates can be greater with smaller cell sizes. More trend data will be needed to see if it is a more established trend and a particularly stronger feature of employment in the Southern Region or if it becomes a stronger feature of employment when economic growth is not as strong.

However, the availability of these data does allow us to monitor trends and helps us build a picture of the range and types of employment, all of which is critical to formulating and improving employment policy.

 

 

Deirdre Frost

The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region

Today we published the second in our series of ‘Regional Sectoral Profiles’ analysing employment and enterprise data for the Western Region on specific economic sectors and identifying key policy issues. The new report examines the Health & Care Sector, the Western Region’s third largest employer.

The full report ‘The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile’ and the two-pageWDC Insights: The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region’ which summarises the key points can be downloaded here

Health & Care is a broad sector including all those working in hospitals, nursing homes, crèches, day facilities, dental, medical and physiotherapist practices etc.  It includes professional healthcare occupations e.g. nurses, doctors, as well as clerical and administrative roles and care assistants, home carers, childminders and childcare workers.

Discussions of the Health & Care sector generally focus on provision of vital healthcare services. This ‘Regional Sectoral Profile’ however focuses on its role as a key economic sector and regional employer.

Employment & Enterprise in Health & Care

A few of the key findings from the report on employment and enterprise in the sector include:

  • 42,027 people were employed in the Health & Care sector in the Western Region in 2016. This was 12.6% of total employment in the region, higher than the 11.1% share nationally.
  • At 15.5% of all employment, Sligo has the highest share working in this sector in the country, while Leitrim (13.5%) has the second highest share nationally with Galway City and Galway County (both 13%) jointly fourth.
  • Health & Care is the largest employment sector for six out of the region’s 40 urban centres – Letterkenny, Sligo, Ballinasloe, Bearna, Strandhill and Collooney. It must be notes that this data refers to residents of the towns, although some may travel to work elsewhere and proximity to a large hospital is a key factor.
  • The number of people working in Health & Care in the Western Region grew by 14.8% between 2011 and 2016, close to double the growth of total employment in the region (7.5%). All western counties experienced far stronger growth in Health & Care jobs than in jobs generally
  • ‘Residential care & social work’ (nursing homes, crèches, home care) is the largest element of Health & Care in the Western Region accounting for 47.6% of all employment in the sector. ‘Hospital activities’ is next largest (37.2%).
  • 4% of all working women in the Western Region work in Health & Care and it is the largest employment sector for women in the region.
  • In 2016 there were 3,485 Health & Care enterprises registered in the Western Region; that was 6.4% of total enterprises in that year.
  • Sligo (7.8%) and Galway (7.6%) have the highest shares of enterprises in Health & Care across all counties in Ireland, again reinforcing the substantial role played by the sector in the region’s economy.

Key Policy Issues for the Western Region’s Health & Care Sector

As the third largest employer in the Western Region and an area showing strong jobs growth in recent years, the Health & Care sector plays a pivotal role in the regional economy, in addition to providing vital services. Therefore future trends in the sector will have significant regional implications.

Higher reliance on Health & Care in the Western Region:  Health & Care is a more significant employer in the Western Region than nationally.  It plays a critical role in providing opportunities for professional careers, especially in more rural areas where there may be fewer alternatives. It also offers jobs at lower skill levels which are important in providing employment for all sections of the labour force. However this greater reliance on the sector in the region increases its vulnerability to any jobs decline.  While the primary policy focus for Health & Care must be on the provision of quality services, the sector’s parallel role as a provider of jobs, particularly in the Western Region, should also be a factor in policy decisions.

Central role in female employment: The Health & Care sector is the largest employer of women in the Western Region and any future developments in this sector will have a far greater impact on female than male employment levels.

Key driver of job creation: Employment growth in Health & Care in the Western Region was almost twice the region’s average employment growth (2011-2016).  Its role may often be overlooked in debates on recent job creation trends, with more focus on exporting and high-tech businesses.  The role of Health & Care in job creation, as well as future growth opportunities in the sector, should be fully explored in national, regional and local economic development strategies.

An ageing population and growing demand:  Over 16% of the population of Mayo, Leitrim, Roscommon and Sligo are aged 65+ years.  Increased longevity means there is a growing share among the ‘older old’ (80+) with Roscommon (4.4%), Leitrim (4.3%) and Mayo (4.25) the highest in the state.  ‘Residential care & social work’ grew by almost a quarter in the Western Region (2011-2016).  Responding to the needs of an ageing population is one of the greatest challenges facing the Health & Care sector and significant job and growth opportunities exist in effectively meeting this challenge. The Western Region’s older age profile and high level of rurality means it is at the forefront of this growing demand and has an opportunity to develop new and innovative solutions such as learning from successful models across Europe.

Loss of rural GP practices: ‘Medical practice’ was the only Health & Care sub-sector which saw a decline in employment.  It is estimated that 50% of GPs in Leitrim will retire over the next five to seven years, 41% in Mayo and 38% in Roscommon.  If reported difficulties in finding GP replacements persist, this could mean that medical practices in neighbouring towns and villages may close.  The impact on the delivery of health services in rural areas of the loss of medical practices needs to be considered in Government policy, with options such as online delivery of GP services explored as part of the solution.

Skill shortages:  A number of skill shortages exist in the sector and healthcare professionals (nurses, doctors) accounted for a higher share of all employment permits (for non-EU residents) issued for the West and Border regions than nationally.  Care workers and childminders are occupations characterised by high turnover and some employers may be experiencing difficulty in attracting and retaining qualified care and childcare workers. Changing demographics, along with Government policy, will impact on the demand for Health & Care skills.  Initiatives to increase the number of people with qualifications in care, as well as to improve working conditions and increase its attractiveness as a job option, are important for the sector’s capacity to meet future needs.

Download the full report ‘The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region: Regional Sectoral Profile’ and the two-pageWDC Insights: The Health & Care Sector in the Western Region’ which summarises the key points, here

 

How is the Western Region doing?

On 31 January, the WDC was invited to give a presentation to officials of the Department of Social Protection working across the Western Region. The objective was to give an overview of the WDC’s analysis of data across a range of socio-economic issues.

Analysing regional data provides information on the areas for which we are responsible and highlights the multi-dimensional nature of the concept of regional development.  A regional perspective is necessary since changes and inequalities not only occur among individuals but also the places where they live

This (very) comprehensive presentation analyses the following indicators:

  1. Population: Preliminary Census 2016 Results
  2. Labour Market: QNHS Q1 2016, special run
  3. Income: County Incomes & Regional GDP, 2013-2014
  4. Enterprise: Business Demography, 2014

These are some of the key points emerging from the analysis.

Population

  • Population of Western Region grew +0.9% 2011-2016 compared with +3.7% growth nationally.
  • Three counties in the Western Region showed population decline 2011-2016 –(Donegal -1.5%, Mayo -0.2% and Sligo -0.1%) – only counties in Ireland to do so. In addition Leitrim and Roscommon had the lowest growth.  Galway city had 5th highest population growth in Ireland.
  • Every county in Ireland had a positive natural increase (more births than deaths) during 2011-2016. Donegal, Sligo and Mayo however had enough negative net migration to lead to population decline.
  • All western counties, and all but six areas nationally, had negative net migration between 2011 and 2016. Donegal and Sligo had the two highest rates of negative net migration.
  • Male out-migration considerably higher than female leading to a +1.5% increase in the female population of the Western Region and only +2% growth in the male population.
Figure 1: Percentage change in population by administrative area, 2011-2016. CSO (2016), Preliminary Results Census 2016

Figure 1: Percentage change in population by administrative area, 2011-2016. CSO (2016), Preliminary Results Census 2016

Labour Market

  • The Western Region’s labour force declined marginally (-1.2%) between 2007 and 2016. Within this the male labour force fell by -6.1% while the female rose by +5.7%.
  • The Western Region has a lower share of its labour force aged under 35 years and a higher share aged over 44 Its labour force participation rate is lower for both men and women, and across all age groups (except 65+).
  • Total employment in the region fell by -5.8% 2007-2016 compared with a -6.5% decline in the rest of the state (all counties outside Western Region)
  • There has been exceptionally strong growth in self-employment in the Western Region since 2012, increasing by +31.1% in the region compared with +7.2% in the rest of the state.
  • Growth of self-employment tied to sectoral pattern of growth with strongest jobs growth since 2012 in Agriculture, Construction, Accommodation & Food Service and Wholesale & Retail, all with high self-emp
  • Since 2012 the Western Region has had jobs decline in 7 out of 14 sectors, in the rest of the state there was only decline in 1 out of 14. Jobs recovery in the Western Region is not as diversified across the economy as elsewhere and more concentrated in domestic sectors
  • Unemployment numbers declining steadily in region, but share of long-term unemployment growing. Western Region has higher unemployment rate in all age groups (except 65+ & 25-34) and particularly among youth.
Figure 2: % change in employment by sector in Western Region and Rest of State, 2012-2016. CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2012-2016, special run

Figure 2: % change in employment by sector in Western Region and Rest of State, 2012-2016. CSO, Quarterly National Household Survey, Q1 2012-2016, special run

Income

  • Disposable income per person in the Western Region was €17,260 in 2013 (92.3% of State). Provisional 2014 figures show some growth (€17,768) but still well below the 2008 peak (€21,167).
  • Longer term, the gap is narrowing, the Western Region had disposable income of 84.3% of State in 1995, 92.3% of State in 2013.
  • Within the Western Region, Roscommon had a significantly lower income relative to the State in 2014 (87.2%) compared with 2005 (95.8%). Clare has also fallen relative to the State starting at 95.5% in 2005 and dropping to 93.3% in 2014. Sligo, Galway, Mayo and Donegal have all improved their position relative to the State since 2005, albeit with some variation. Galway and Sligo had greatest improvements.
Figure 3: Index of disposable income per person in western counties, 2005-2014 (Index State=100). CSO, County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013, provisional 2014

Figure 3: Index of disposable income per person in western counties, 2005-2014 (Index State=100). CSO, County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013, provisional 2014

Gross Value Added

  • Dublin region is the only region where the preliminary 2014 GVA per person figure is higher than the peak GVA per person in 2007. None of the other regions have recovered to the 2007 level, though the difference in the West region is slight.
  • Dublin and Mid-East and South West, only regions with a greater share of national GVA than share of persons at work.
  • In 2005 there were 60.6 index points between the lowest GVA per person in a region (Midland, 65.4) and the highest (Dublin and the Mid-East, 126.0).  In 2014 the difference between Midland (59.2) and Dublin and the Mid-East, (130.6) was 71.4 index points (71.3 in 2013).
Figure 4: Index of GVA per person by region, 2005-2014 (Index State=100). CSO, County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013, provisional 2014

Figure 4: Index of GVA per person by region, 2005-2014 (Index State=100). CSO, County Incomes and Regional GDP 2013, provisional 2014

Enterprise

  • The share of enterprises nationally that are based in the Western Region is declining and was 17.1% of the total in 2014.
  • Construction, Wholesale & Retail, Professional activities and Accommodation & Food Service are the largest enterprise sectors in the region. Less than 5% of the region’s enterprises are in Financial & Insurance and Information & Communications combined.
  • There has been a far greater decline in enterprise numbers in the Western Region than the rest of the state since 2008 and the region had a weaker performance – greater decline or lower growth – in every sector (ex. real estate).
  • The enterprise base differs across more urban and rural counties. Highly rural counties of Roscommon, Mayo and Donegal have 34-36% of enterprises in Industry and Construction but in more urban counties of Clare and Sligo it is around 30%.  A higher share of enterprises in Galway and Sligo are active in knowledge services sectors, though even Galway is below national average. Local services play a larger role in more rural counties.
  • Western counties had among the greatest losses of enterprises since 2008. Donegal lost more than 1 in 3 of its Construction firms; Wholesale & Retail declined most strongly in Donegal and Clare; Accommodation & Food Service declined across most counties.
  • Knowledge services performed best, though from a low base.
Figure 5: % change in number of active enterprises by sector in Western Region & Rest of State, 2008-2014. CSO, Business Demography, 2014

Figure 5: % change in number of active enterprises by sector in Western Region & Rest of State, 2008-2014. CSO, Business Demography, 2014

The full presentation can be downloaded here  (PDF, 2MB)

 

Pauline White & Helen McHenry

Impact of Sectors on Western Region’s Jobs Recovery

Our last blog post examined the role that sectors play in regional GVA. Sectors also have a huge impact on the pattern of jobs growth.  Following on from our April WDC Insights publication ‘Jobs Recovery in the Western Region’, the WDC has just published new analysis examining the role that sectors have played in recent jobs trends.

‘Impact of Sectors on Western Region’s Jobs Recovery’ examines some of the causes for the region’s slower jobs recovery.

Lower jobs diversity

There is greater concentration of employment in a few sectors in the Western Region.  62.2% of jobs in the region are in its top five sectors (Industry, Health, Wholesale & Retail, Agriculture and Education) compared with 53.6% in the rest of the state.  Greater diversity in employment across sectors is an important aspect of regional resilience and growth.

Traditional and public sectors more important; services less so

The region has higher shares working in the traditional sectors (Agriculture, Construction, Industry) and also Public Services (Health, Education, Public Admin) than in the rest of the state (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2015

Fig. 1: Percentage of employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2015

At the same time, there are lower shares employed in Locally Traded (Retail, Accommodation, Transport) and Knowledge (ICT, Finance, Professional) Services.  For Locally Traded Services, as these rely on domestic demand, lower incomes in the region  compared with much of the rest of the state may be a factor in this.  It also helps to explain the region’s higher youth unemployment as these are areas (shops, bars) where young people often find work.

The high-value Knowledge Services sectors is where the region lags the rest of the state most significantly.  These are seen as key sectors for growth and their poor performance is a cause for concern.

Strength in manufacturing

Manufacturing plays a more important role in the region’s employment, accounting for 15.6% of jobs compared with 12.2% in the rest of the state.  Between 2012 and 2015 growth in manufacturing jobs in the Western Region was more than twice that as in rest of state – 8.3% v 3.4% (Fig. 2).  The region’s manufacturing strength has been a key factor in the West’s relatively strong recovery in GVA.  Manufacturing is a key regional strength.

Decline in market services sectors

Between 2012 and 2015 there was jobs decline in the three market services sectors (Administration and Other, Locally Traded and Knowledge) in the Western Region, while they grew elsewhere in the state (Fig. 2).  This is the main reason for the Western Region’s slower jobs recovery.

Fig. 2: Percentage change in employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2012 – Q1 2015

Fig. 2: Percentage change in employment by broad sector, Western Region and Rest of State, Q1 2012 – Q1 2015

Similar to the rest of the state, Agriculture and Construction saw the largest increases in job numbers in the Western Region, driven by strong agri-food exports and a resurgence in building activity.

Conclusion

This WDC Insights shows that slower jobs recovery in the Western Region is mainly due to contraction in market services sectors, in contrast with growth elsewhere.  In every year since 2011, the numbers working in the Western Region in both Knowledge Services and in Administration and Other Services has declined. This was during a time of recovery nationally.

While the region’s strong manufacturing base and Public Services employment have compensated to some extent, it has not been enough to allow the region to enjoy a similar rate of jobs recovery as elsewhere.  Optimising growth across all sectors, and addressing challenges in the market services sectors in particular, will be required for a healthier and more resilient regional labour market.

Pauline White

 

Source: All data taken from a special run of the CSO’s Quarterly National Household Survey, Quarter 1 2012-2015 for the seven county Western Region.

Employment Trends in Co. Mayo and the Western Region

The WDC recently made a presentation about employment trends in Mayo and the Western Region at an Education, Training and Jobseekers Expo held in Kiltimagh.   We outlined the current employment profile of Mayo and the Western Region as well as national trends in job vacancies and skill shortages.

  • Wholesale and retail, Industry, Health and Agriculture are the largest employment sectors in Co. Mayo (Census 2011).
  • Agency assisted companies (companies who have received assistance from EI, IDA or Udarás na Gaeltachta) employed 8,300 people in the county in 2013 and Modern Manufacturing and Agri-food are its largest assisted employment sectors (Forfás Annual Employment Survey 2013).
  • All agency assisted sectors (except Agri-food) showed stronger employment growth in Mayo between 2012 and 2013 than the state average.
  • In the Western Region, Wholesale and retail, Industry, Health, Agriculture, Education and Accommodation and food service are the largest employment sectors in 2014 (QNHS, Q1 2014).
  • Agriculture, Wholesale and retail, Professional, scientific and technical activities, Accommodation and food service and Construction showed employment growth in the region over the past year. Industry, Education and Health showed the largest declines.
  • Life sciences, ICT, engineering, food, green economy, care, tourism and the creative sector are among the sectors predicted to grow in the Western Region.

Download the presentation here https://www.wdc.ie/publications/reports-and-papers/

Pauline White

Business Demography

The WDC has just published its analysis of the CSO Business Demography data (2011) which shows there were nearly 31,000 active enterprises operating in the Western Region. At 0.057 the average number of enterprises per working age person in the region was lower than that in the rest of the state (0.062).

Overall the Western Region’s enterprise base was more significantly damaged by the recession than elsewhere. Between 2006 and 2011 the decline in enterprise numbers in the Western Region was nearly twice that in the rest of the state (-18.4% compared with -9.8%).  The region’s largest enterprise sectors experienced the greatest declines.

Some sectors did show growth. Enterprise numbers in ‘education’, ‘information and communications’, ‘real estate’ and ‘professional, scientific and technical activities’ increased. While growth in these knowledge intensive sectors is very welcome, they continue to be less important to the region’s enterprise profile.

The Western Region has a less diverse enterprise profile than the rest of the state. It has a higher share of enterprises in sectors that mainly serve local, domestic or tourist markets, while knowledge intensive services account for a lower share of the region’s businesses. The region’s more urban counties tend to have greater enterprise diversity, with rural counties’ economies more concentrated by sector.

A WDC Insights summary or a more detailed WDC Report on the Business Demography data can be downloaded from https://www.wdc.ie/publications/reports-and-papers/

Pauline White

Note: This report was completed in late July, prior to the very recent publication of the data for 2012. The WDC’s analysis of the 2012 Business Demography data will be published soon.